Climate Change and Health Matt Commers, PhD MPH MPA October 25, 2006 Implications of Global Climate Change for Human Health and Public Policy

Behavior Health Perception Environmental Condition 11 & & 33 2 Environments and health: Four pathways for intervention Source: Commers, Gottlieb, Kok (2006). How to Change Envioronments for Health. Health Promotion International.

Impact: Infectious disease

Impact: Water Too little: Drinking water Agricultural production Fishing Too much: Sewage systems Coastal protection

Impact: Water Shortages

Aral Sea The area is now constantly subject to toxic duststorms and desertification, the people of the area have 9 times the world average rate for throat cancer, and infant/maternity mortality is the highest in all of the former Soviet Union's republics. Respiratory complications, tuberculosis and eye diseases are also rising alarmingly.

Impact: Food supply Some areas may become more fertile Some areas likely to become less fertile

Impact: Natural disasters Coastal flooding Storms Heatwaves Ecosystem destabilization (e.g. Pine- beetles) High-impact (i.e. catastrophic) events

Assessment: Death rates “In 2003, Europe experienced summer temperatures that were unprecedented in the instrumental record. In France, over more deaths were reported during the August heat wave than were typical for that time of year, and the total for Europe was in the region of In Paris, the number of deaths increased by 140% over usual figures, and the mortality rate after the heat wave was not lower than usual…” Source: Kovats and Haines (2005). Global Climate Change and Health. CMAJ, Vol. 172, No. 4 (February 15).

Assessment: Insurance claims “Annual weather-related insured losses rose from $1 billion in the 1970s to an inflation-adjusted average $15 billion in the past decade, according to Ceres, a coalition of institutional investors and environmental groups.” Source: USA Today, June 1, 2006: globalwarming_x.htm

Amelioration Trading carbon credits Alternative energy sources Conservation Litigation Consumer action Political action

Adaptation Better drainage Tougher building codes Strengthening of crop seeds Insurance and risk schemes Global market in weather derivatives (from $8 billion to $40 billion in one year) Chosen or forced migration

Climate Change and Health Matt Commers, PhD MPH MPA October 25, 2006 Implications of Global Climate Change for Human Health and Public Policy