Climate Change GLSGN Meeting Alexandria Bay, NY June 16, 2009

Agenda Background/Updates 15 minutes – national perspective - Jim Hurley & Mike Liffman 5 minutes – strategic plan – Rochelle 15 minute overview of current grant - Rochelle 15 minutes - communicating uncertainty - Dave MacNeill 10 minutes – visualizations overview – Dave Hart Discussion. (1 hour) - Focus Questions: What should our goals be? What do we know, what do we need to know? What are our messages, how do we communicate them?

Strategic Plan All programs except PA and Lake Champlain have at least one climate change element in their planning documents.

Goals Neutral broker of Information Provide scientifically sound information to the public and serve as an information source to communities regarding regional climate change. Develop an understanding and communicate scientific, technical and public information on the impacts of climate change on Great Lakes coasts (lake water levels, water quality and supply, storm intensity, etc.). Supporting Behavior Change Help citizens understanding the processes involved and the impacts climate change can have on natural and built environments. Help people and communities in the Great Lakes Basin plan for climate change Give citizens the tools they need to be able to prepare better for, and respond to, climate related coastal hazards by enhancing preparedness to prevent or greatly reduce human deaths, injuries, property and environmental damages, and associated economic losses caused by coastal natural hazards. Provide solutions for ensuring the water supply for future users of the water resources of the Great Lakes Help people and communities in the Great Lakes Basin adopt practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Objectives/Methods Internal planning Evaluate/Research/Develop Communicate Promote actions to mitigate climate change Assist coastal communities in preparing

NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program Preparing Coastal Communities for Climate Change: Translating Model Results to Prepare Ports, Harbors and Stormwater Management Facilities in an Era of Climate Variability and Scientific Uncertainty What critical changes would trigger changes in management practice or operational strategies?

Components - Modelling Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Regional Model (CHARM) – Lofgren, GLERL Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) – DeMarchi, CILER (Case Western)

Components - Economics Looking at costs of coastal infrastructure – developing a matrix tool that can be used to assess costs on a port-by-pot basis.

Components – Duluth Case Study Duluth/Superior Harbor Technical Advisory Committee –The vast majority of respondents, 91%, felt they understood the terms “Climate Change” and “Global Warming.” –However, only 48% felt they were aware of “Great Lakes or local” climate change issues. –Many respondents were unsure of the relative importance of climate change for their specific organization, area, or commercial interest. –The two impacts seen as most negative were lower lake levels and extreme drought throughout the system (95%). Increased wind speed, and extreme precipitation were also seen as negative (both by approximately 77%). –Infrastructure and water levels were viewed as at risk; 84% of respondents felt there would be negative impacts to both storm-water drains and shore-land erosion. –Negative impacts were anticipated almost uniformly (between 70-78%) for dredging, inland river water levels (Mississippi River), general maritime infrastructure, the integrity of breakwaters and docks, port operations and equipment, and fisheries.

Components – Toledo Case Study Commercial ports and marina interests –were interested in and concerned about short term lake levels, water levels, storm events and sediment dredging that might impact cargo movement. –were Leery of long term forecasting to make decisions –could use modeling results to help locate and design facilities, help reduce uncertainty in decision making, improve long term planning and forecast need for commodities Stormwater managers and community planners –were concerned about and interested in sewer systems, storm events, land use, wetlands, the ability to generalize data from other geographic areas, and the use of historical data for planning and forecasting that may or may not apply as climate and conditions change. –did not feel that their needs for climate change forecasting were being met. They need local /regional information –could use modeling to help determine design standards, help locate and site facilities, predict flooding, runoff intensity, and assess impacts on agricultural practices and more

Components – Strategic Planning Components – Communicating Uncertainty (Previous) MacNeill Components – Website Components – Visualizations Hart

What should our goals be? What do we know, what do we need to know? What are our messages, how do we communicate them?