Vulnerability Assessment by Nazim Ali Senior Research Fellow Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad, Pakistan

Vulnerability “Vulnerability defines the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system. It depends not only on a system’s sensitivity but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions’ (Watson et al., 1996).” “Vulnerability defines the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system. It depends not only on a system’s sensitivity but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions’ (Watson et al., 1996).” Vulnerability can not be attributed to only climatic factors as social and economic factors also play important role in determine the status of nutrition security of individual Vulnerability can not be attributed to only climatic factors as social and economic factors also play important role in determine the status of nutrition security of individual

Types of Vulnerability Social Vulnerability Social Vulnerability Population Growth, Poor Health, Gender Discrimination Population Growth, Poor Health, Gender Discrimination Economic Vulnerability Economic Vulnerability Economic Stability, Trade, Investment, Prices, Income Economic Stability, Trade, Investment, Prices, Income Environmental Vulnerability Environmental Vulnerability Loss of Land, water, production potential Loss of Land, water, production potential

Probability of Being Food Insecure at Different Income Levels

Probability Function for Household with Different No. of Members

Cropped Area with Source of Irrigation VariablesTubewellC+TRain Wheat Rabi fodder Rice Sugarcane Kharif fodder Cropping Intensity Average Yield

Hypothetical Wellbeing Function

Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability: V = f (Sensitivity/ State Relative to Threshhold V = f ( |  W/  X| / W/Wo) Exposure: V. Px. dX Adaptation: A = V existing – V modified

Impact of Change in Temperature at Different Water Stress Levels

Spatial Impact of Change in Temperature at Different Water Stress Levels

Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized CoefficientstSig. ModelBStd. ErrorBeta (Constant) LNCO LNIRRI LNGSL SDLNGSL-slk SDLIRRI-slk LOCAT-slk Dependent Variable: LNYIELD Comparative Contribution of Climatic Factors in Wheat Production in Wheat Production

Yield skp = × CO × IRRI × GSL Yield skp = × CO × IRRI × GSL Elasticity of Production = Elasticity of Production = Yield slk = × CO × IRRI × GSL Yield slk = × CO × IRRI × GSL Elasticity of Production = Elasticity of Production = 2.355

Macro Level Vulnerability Assessment Sensitivities Category: SensitivityProxy variablesProxy for:Functional Relationship Food Sensitivity >Cereals production/ area >Protein consumption /capita. -Degree of modernization,access of farmers to inputs to buffer against climate variability and change. -Access of a population to markets and other mechanisms (e.g consumption shift) for compensating for shortfalls in production. -Sensitivity low as production high -Sensitivity high as consumption low Ecosystem s Sensitivity %land Managed Fertilizer use/ cropland area Degree of human intrusion in to the natural landscape and land fragmentation Nitrogen/ phosphorus loading of ecosystems and stresses from pollution. Sensitivity high as % land managed high kg/ha is optional. X 100 kg/ha (caped at 500 kg/ha), sensitivity high due to increasing runoff. Water resources sensitivity Renewable supply and inflow Water Use Supply of water from internal renewable resources and inflow from rivers Withdrawals to meet current or projected needs Sensitivity calculated using ratio of available water used: Sensitivity high as water used high Human population health sensitivity Completed fertility Life expectancy Composite of conditions that affect human health including nutrition, exposure to disease risks, and access to health services Sensitivity low as fertility low and life expectancy high

Macro Level Coping Capacity Coping Capacity Category: Economic Capacity GDP (market)/ Capita Gini Index Distribution of access to markets, technology, and other resources useful for adaptation Coping capacity high as GDP/cap high; at Present GINI held constant Human and Civic resources Dependency ratio Literacy Social and economic resources available for adaptation after meeting other present needs Human capital and adaptability of labor force Coping capacity low as dependency high Coping capacity high as literacy high Renewable natural capital Population density SO2/ Area %land unmanaged Population pressure and stresses on ecosystems Air quality and other stresses On ecosystems Landscape fragmentation and ease of ecosystems migration Coping capacity low as density high Coping capacity low as SO2high Coping capacity high as % unmanaged land high

Basic Linkage System Vulnerability is more of less subjective that can not be measured by taking individual stressor this creates the need for BSL. Basic Linkage System (BSL) : A tool for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in broader setting. It should consider Broader Food System (National, Regional, International) Population Land Cover Change Agricultural Production Demand and Trade etc Than it would be possible to view this vulnerability in holistic way.

So…..What’s Next? BSL Model for South Asia? BSL Model for South Asia?or Improvement in Institutional response to GEC? Improvement in Institutional response to GEC?