Population Dilemmas in Europe

The Geographic Setting One of the smallest continents in size 1/8 th of the population lives there Population Density is shrinking – Why? Oldest population Lowest birthrate

Births, Deaths and Migration Total Fertility Rate in Italy = 1 To stop shrinking needs to raise to replacement rate Longer Life expectancies Changing trend in migration: now more migrants to Europe, but still not enough

Dependency Ratio Compares the number of people too young (under 16) or too old (over 64) to work with those in the working- age population High dependency ratio = more people to support Low dependency ratio = less people to support Where is Europe?

Population Change in Europe From slow to fast to no growth Remember the Demographic Transition Model?

Dilemma One: A Shrinking Population Between 2005 and 2050, Italy is expected to shrink from 58 million to about 50 million Causes: – Women wanting to pursue education and careers – Women are waiting to have children – Family planning – High cost of living – Child care

Effects: – Declining enrollment in schools results in unemployment and loss of business – Labor shortages, relocating businesses – Smaller militaries

Responses: – “birth bonuses” and benefits such as reduced rent and lower taxes – Lowering the cost of children – Providing quality childcare – Paid leave for parents – Flexible work hours

Dilemma Two: An Aging Population “Old Continent” By 2050 average age in Spain will be 50, making it the oldest in the world Causes: – Rise in life expectancy – Drop in the birthrate – Baby Boom

Effects: – Government Pensions – Government Health care – Only works when a country has a low dependency ratio – Higher taxes

Responses: – Cut the amount of money each work receives in pensions – Raise the retirement age – Bonuses to those who delay retirement – Prevention is better than treatment – Home care instead of nursing homes

Dilemma Three: A Declining Workforce Causes: – More people retire than enter the workforce – Will increase as baby boomers retire – Dependence Ratio in 2000 was 87 dependents to 100 workers, in 2030 it is estimated to be 100 workers for 121 dependents

Effects: – More Jobs for young workers – Decline in highly skilled workers – Businesses may move – Less revenue from taxes

Responses: – Keep older workers working – Encourage women to join and stay in the workforce – Move jobs to other parts of the world – Encourage immigration