Tulsa Area Forecast 2016 Tulsa Regional Chamber Economic Outlook Conference December 2, 2015 Bob Ball Tulsa Regional Chamber
Total Employment Growth Forecast for 2015 1 Total Employment Growth Forecast for 2015 1.5% in December 2014 +6,400 jobs
Total Employment Growth Forecast for 2015 0 Total Employment Growth Forecast for 2015 0.8% in March 2015 +3,600 jobs
Looks like growth of 0.6% for 2015 +2,600
2016 Employment Forecast 0.35% +1,560 jobs
Tulsa Total Employment +1.6 +2.6
Tulsa Total Employment Growth
Tulsa Total Employment -1.750 +1.6 +2.6
Tulsa Total Personal Income Growth Forecast for 2015 6 Tulsa Total Personal Income Growth Forecast for 2015 6.0% December 2014
Tulsa Total Personal Income Growth Forecast for 2015 6 Tulsa Total Personal Income Growth Forecast for 2015 6.0% December 2014 3.0%
2016 Personal Income Forecast 2.4%
Tulsa Personal Income and Wages
Criteria for Target-sector Selection Sheer size of the sector Availability of work force, work force training Interrelationships among sectors Infrastructure and assets
Target Sectors Energy Advanced Manufacturing Aerospace Health Care Professional Services and Regional HQs Information Technology Transportation, Distribution & Logistics
Tulsa Total Employment -1.750 +1.6 +2.6
Impact of 2015 O&G-related Employment Losses on Tulsa 1,750 jobs supported 3,124 additional jobs. 10 jobs in O&G-related industries support 18 additional jobs. Lost O&G wages of $234.3 million remove the support for $190.5 million in additional wages. 1,750 jobs produced goods and services valued at $352.8 million in Tulsa, or 0.6 percent of gross product.
Target Sectors Energy Advanced Manufacturing Aerospace Health Care Professional Services and Regional HQs Information Technology Transportation, Distribution & Logistics
These 6 Target Sectors Account for: 25 % of employment in the Tulsa economy 35 % of income and salaries Average wage of $63,300, 46% higher than the overall average
Energy/oil and gas Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 2.9% Growth in 2015: -7.5% -600 jobs Growth in 2016: -4.0% -290 jobs
Manufacturing Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 2.1% Growth in 2015: -5.8% -3,000 jobs Growth in 2016: -6.1% -2,980 jobs
Strength of the dollar
Machinery Manufacturing Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 5.2% Growth in 2015: -7.2% -990 jobs Growth in 2016: -11.1% -1,400 jobs
Aerospace Avg annual growth five years through 2014: flat Growth in 2015: 1.7% Growth in 2016: 2.5%
Transportation, Distribution, Logistics Avg annual growth five years through 2014: -1.5% Growth in 2015: -0.5% Growth in 2016: -1.5%
Professional & Business Services Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 1.3% Growth in 2015: 1.6% Growth in 2016: 2.0%
Information Technology Avg annual growth five years through 2014: -1.0% Growth in 2015: -0.7% Growth in 2016: -0.9%
Health Care Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 1.6% Growth in 2015: 1.9% Growth in 2016: 2.3%
Caveats to the Forecast