Consequences of Ecosystem Changes. How and what to Control?? Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment.

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Presentation transcript:

Consequences of Ecosystem Changes

How and what to Control?? Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis

Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment Health-Welfare Energy- Environment Socio-Economic

Causality: Linear System Model

Trend of Indicators SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu 1960s 1980s 1990s

Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions E k =  c jk EM j =   b ij c jk GE i =    a i b ij c jk P Industr. Energy Transp. Energy ResCom.Engy Coal Oil GasElectric Energy SOx NOx HC PM Goods &Energy,(GE) iFuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k Ind. Chemicals Industr. Goods Pop., P Metals Mercury a i Consump./Person b ij Fuels/Energy c jk Emission/Fuel- jjiiij Consumption of Goods and Energy:GE =  a i P Fuels and Materials Flow:FM =   a i b ij P Emission of Pollutants:EM =    a i b ij c jk P Industrial Prod. Transportation ResComercial EconMeasure(EM)

Coal Production and S Content

Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998 In 1980, a major flow of sulfur in coal originated in Illinois and was transported to Florida Arrows indicate the flow of coal from the mines to the consumer By 1990, the transport of high sulfur coal from the Midwest has bee replaced by low sulfur western coal

Pollutant Transfer by Fuels and Minerals: Spatial Transfer Matrices

Carbon Emission Drivers for Transportation Env

Carbon Emission Drivers for Housing

Close-Loop Frameworks Three Frameworks: –Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science) –Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance) –Causality Loop (Social-Material Science) Main Challenges: - Balancing Loops - Network Effects in Causality - Integrating Socio-economic, Physico-chemical, Health-Welfare