El Nino 101 and Impacts from Recent El Nino Events Chip Konrad Director of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina at Chapel.

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Presentation transcript:

El Nino 101 and Impacts from Recent El Nino Events Chip Konrad Director of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill A cknowledgement: Jordan McLeod, the new regional climatologist at SERCC

El Nino 101

El Nino La Nina El Nino 101 Occurs every 2-7 years february-quick-look/

El Nino 101

Typical El Niño Winter Pattern Image credit: Illinois State Water Survey (with data from NOAA) El Nino 101

El Niño and the Caribbean Average temperature (°F) and precipitation (inches) during the dry season (December through April) for 16 observing stations across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Results are stratified by ENSO phase. Graphics provided by NOAA NWS San Juan. El Nino 101

Event RankYearPeak ONI (°C) 12015/ (projected) 21997/ / / / / / / / / / / / / Ranking of top El Niño events (Peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) > +1.0°C) Data obtained from NOAA Climate Prediction Center 1950s-1960s 1970s-1980s 1990s-2000s Color coded by decades 2010s El Nino 101

Strong El Nino Departure from mean temperature (left) and percent of mean precipitation (right) The climatological baseline period is 1981–2010. Maps provided by the NOAA Midwestern Regional Climate Center’s cli-MATE tool. Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Precipitation & Temperature

Moderate El Nino Departure from mean temperature (left) and percent of mean precipitation (right) The climatological baseline period is 1981–2010. Maps provided by the NOAA Midwestern Regional Climate Center’s cli-MATE tool. Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Precipitation & Temperature

Record-breaking winter (DJF) rainfall across Florida and the coastal Carolinas during the 1997/1998 and 2009/2010 El Niño events Data obtained from xmACIS2 (NOAA Regional Climate Centers) Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Precipitation & Temperature

Winter (DJF) tornado activity by ENSO phase across Florida and remainder of the Southeast region (1954–2014) Florida Rest of Southeast (AL, GA, SC, NC, VA) Data obtained from NOAA Storm Prediction Center Impacts of Recent El Nino Events ENSO phase# of seasonsTornado countAverageMaximum La Niña (2007/2008) Neutral (2005/2006) El Niño (2002/2003) ENSO phase# of seasonsTornado countAverageMaximum La Niña (1974/1975) Neutral (1978/1979) El Niño (1997/1998)

Ranking of top 10 negative AO winters (DJF) since 1950 RankYearMean AO (std. dev.) 12009/ / / / / / / / / / Data from NOAA Climate Prediction Center Impacts of Recent El Nino Events: Winter Weather Events Winter weather patterns also shaped by other circulation patterns Example: Arctic Oscillation (AO). Negative AO = cold conditions across SE Winters with both a Negative AO & El Nino

Courtesy of NOAA NCDC Snow depth on January 20 th 2010 Impacts of Recent El Nino Events El Nino and negative AO = More snow, which can extended far to the south

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