NS4053 Theories of International Relations and Energy Security Week 4.1

Theories of International Politics Realism – Structural realism Liberalism Marxism Goals of theory: – Analytical – Predictive – Normative

Realism View of world: pessimistic, zero sum Unit of analysis: state Nature of system: anarchy Structure of system: distribution of capabilities (balance of power) State interests: survival, self-help, relative gains

Realist concerns about energy security Access to energy resources Growing scarcity of energy State competition over access to scarce resources Wealth derived from energy flowing to weak, unstable countries that are hostile, revisionist, ‘rogue states’. State conflict over energy

Liberalism View of world: optimistic Unit of analysis: States act on a crowded stage. Nature of system: anarchy tempered by … – International institutions – Democratic peace Structure of system: distribution of capabilities and institutionalized cooperation. State interests: survival and absolute gains

Liberalist concerns about energy security Dark underbelly of energy – Resource curse and rentier states – Resource wars – Dirty politics What needs to be done – Transparency – Accountability – Good governance and corporate social responsibility – Economic liberalization and freer markets for energy

Marxism View of world: pessimistic Unit of analysis: social classes – State is the executive committee of the ruling class Nature of system: ordered by wealth Structure of system: rich countries exploit weak countries. State interests: reflect the interest of economic elites. – Core states (developed): exploitative – Periphery (underdeveloped): dependent

Marxist concerns about energy security West efforts to manipulate international politics and energy supplies to preserve economic dominance. Political and economic consequences of dependency in peripheral energy producers. – Underdevelopment – Repressive politics – Entrenched economic elites

Assessing threats Brazil Population: ~ 196 million GDP: $2.48 trillion Armed forces: 327K/1.3M res. Defense budget: $28 billion Nuclear fuel cycle: Yes Nuclear bomb design: Yes? Missile technology: Yes Proximity: Closer NPT member: Yes NPT AP in place: No Energy producer: hydro, nuclear, oil, biomass Iran Population: ~ 75 million GDP: $331 billion Armed forces: 545K/1.8M res. Defense budget: $9.2 billion Nuclear fuel cycle: Yes? Nuclear bomb design: ? Missile technology: Yes Proximity: Farther NPT member: Yes NPT AP in place: Yes Energy producer: mostly oil

Geopolitics of Energy Harris’ concerns: – Rise of China and Asia energy demand – End of cheap energy – Altered balance between international and national oil companies – Growing importance of Middle East and Russia for generating exportable fossil fuels.

Implications of rising cost of energy? What if China and India were to have similar GDP and energy use patterns as US? New fields coming online are more costly to extract and refine. Shift from oil to unconventional fuels not likely to happen fast enough to hold prices down. Who gets the revenues?

Who controls energy production? Rise of National Oil Companies – Control most liquid fossil fuels reserves. – Not solely motivated by economic concerns. Exportable liquid fossil fuels mostly concentrated in Mid East and Russia. How does this affect states’ foreign policies? How does this affect possibility of conflict?

Implications for policy What kind of relations with China, Middle East and Russia How to mitigate risks to access and supply?