Guidance for Uncertainty Scanning and Assessment at RIVM Jeroen van der Sluijs, James Risbey, Penny Kloprogge (Copernicus Institute, Utrecht) Jerry Ravetz (RMC, London) Silvio Funtowicz, Serafin Corral, Ângela Pereira (JRC, Ispra) Bruna de Marchi Rob Hoppe, Simone Huijs (Fac. Public Policy, Twente Univ.) Marjolein van Asselt (ICIS, Maastricht) Peter Jansen, Arthur Petersen, Anton van der Giessen (RIVM)

RIVM learning process <1999 Innovative methodological R&D&D on uncertainty assessment and management (e.g TARGETS) 1999 De Kwaadsteniet affair Fact sheets National review MB/MV 2000 International audit >2000 Multi-disciplinary project Development of Guidance (“Leidraad”)

Goals Structured and transparent approach that facilitates awareness, identification, and incorporation of uncertainty May not reduce uncertainties, but provides a means to assess their potential consequences and avoid pitfalls associated with ignoring or ignorance of uncertainties Guidance for use and help against misuse of uncertainty tools Provide useful uncertainty assessments (robust knowledge) Facilitate effective communication on uncertainties in terms of robustness of knowledge Fit RIVM's specific role in the decision analytic cycle

Ingredients Typology of uncertainties Quick-scan Analytic checklist Toolbox Procedure selection/tuning of tools Good practice guidelines Glossary

Sorts of uncertainty Inexactness (technical) Unreliability (methodological) Ignorance (epistemological) (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1990)

Locations of uncertainty Sociopolitical and institutional context System boundary & problem framing –System boundary –Problem framing –Scenario framing (storylines) Model/instrument –Indicators –Conceptual model sruct. /assumptions –Technical model structure –Parameters Inputs –Scenarios –Data

Main steps Quick scan Problem framing Process/context assessment (history, stakeholders, values) Communication (Assess limitations of) Environmental assessment methods Uncertainty identification and prioritization Uncertainty analysis Review, evaluation, interpretation Reporting

Outputs Quickscan (1) Description of the problem Gauge of how well assessment tools address the problem List of which uncertainties are salient on the basis of problem structure Indication whether to involve stakeholders Indication where in policy life cycle the problem is List of stakeholders Identification of areas of agreement/disagreement on value dimensions

Outputs Quickscan (2) Prioritized list of salient uncertainties Communication plan: when and how to involve what stakeholders First indication of appropriate tools to address uncertainties identified Assessment of attainable robustness of results + indication what it might take to increase robustness Assessment of the relevance of results to the problem Pitfalls and hints to facilitate effective communication of results

Toolbox uncertainty analysis Sensitivity Analysis (screening, local global) Error propagation equation (TIER 1) Monte Carlo (TIER 2) Expert Elicitation NUSAP Scenario analysis Extended Quality Assurance (pedigree scheme) PRIMA Checklist model quality assistance (see …...

Toolbox For each tool: Main purpose and use What sorts and locations of uncertainty are addressed? Required resources Strengths and limitations Guidance on the application and hints on complementarity with other tools Pitfalls References (handbooks, user-guides, web resources, example studies, experts)

Mapping Toolbox to typology

Review, synthesis and evaluation Synthesise quantitative & qualitative results Revisit problem and assessment steps Frame findings in terms of robustness of the environmental assessment concerned Relevance of results to the problem Discuss implications of findings for different settings of burden of proof

Reporting Context of communication Who are target audiences Language Method and style Content

Further work Expert Review User review Web-tool Demonstration on cases Training