Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology: NOAA's multi-year plan to deploy the NASA Global Hawk aircraft for high impact weather Michael L. Black Gary A. Wick Robbie E. Hood NOAA UAS Program SHOUT

SHOUT Objectives 2 Overall Goal Demonstrate and test prototype UAS concept of operations that could be used to mitigate the risk of diminished high impact weather forecasts and warnings in the case of polar-orbiting satellite observing gaps Objective 1 Conduct data impact studies Observing System Experiments (OSE) using data from UAS field missions Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated UAS data Objective 2 Evaluate cost and operational benefit through detailed analysis of life-cycle operational costs and constraints

SHOUT Proposed Mission Plans – Collaboration with NASA HS3 – August 26 to September 29, NASA Wallops – Up to 15 total flights – NOAA input to mission design 2015 – NOAA led Missions – September – November, NASA Armstrong – Tropical cyclones (ATL, EPAC)and high impact weather targets (Pacific, Alaska) – Single deployment location adds flexibility for potential targets- Atlantic, EPAC, Pacific, Arctic – Possibility for 2 GH aircraft to be explored – potential flights 2016 – NOAA led Mission – September – November, NASA Armstrong – NASA EV-2 programs would lead to NASA collaborations and parnership with NOAA

PROPOSED SHOUT HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER MISSIONS 5 Early period: Tropical cyclones Forecast improvements for track and intensity Option for both Atlantic and Pacific Basins Atlantic tradeoff of deployment costs vs station time Later period: High-impact storms affecting the continental US and Alaska weather: Coastal flooding Atmospheric rivers Forecast improvement for threats such as extreme precipitation and damaging winds Targeted lead times of 3-7 days Potential contribution to satellite calibration/validation

HS th week in place on NASA schedule Agreements drafted with both NASA Goddard and Armstrong NOAA adding: Up to 5 flights 240 dropsondes Mission science support and guidance Real-time data transmission/assimilation planned Targeting methodology for missions possible

SHOUT ADAPTIVE OPERATIONAL STRATEGY 6 Tropical cyclones – SUNY group proposed to explore methodology (R. Torn, J. Dunion, Grad. Student) – Collaborations with AOML and ESRL NOAA Labs. High-impact weather events – Zoltan Toth (ESRL) proposed to explore methodologies – Identification of high- impact weather threat cases – Fully automated Ensemble Transform sensitivity algorithm to identify sensitive areas – Produce “ optimized ” flight track to sample sensitive region for selected threat

PROPOSED NADINE FLT TRACK

10 ACTUAL NADINE FLT TRACK

Typical AV-6 Flight Pattern IP - ~ 600 nmi- <-To WFF FP

Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Pattern with approaching trough to the west <-To WFF IP - ~ 600 nmi- FP Extra Drops

IP - ~ 600 nmi- <-To WFF FP Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Pattern with building ridge to the NE Extra Drops

Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Pattern with SAL East of Center IP - ~ 600 nmi- <-To WFF FP Extra Drops

Does a butterfly pattern (2 crossings) at the beginning of the pattern yield more symmetric coverage?

Does a butterfly pattern (multiple long leg crossings) yield more symmetric coverage and still provide adequate environmental sampling?

CONSIDERATIONS FOR NOAA-MODIFIED MISSIONS: 8 HS3 objectives and goals come first- especially with AV-1 NOAA objectives are complimentary to those of NASA Modifications proposed only when there is adequate time on station for changes Try to minimize alterations to the NASA proposed flight tracks We would like to fly with NOAA IFEX missions (P3s and G-IV) when possible Some coordinated portion of flight legs with NOAA P3s and/or the G-IV is beneficial to compare radars NOAA slightly more interested with AV-6 flights (AVAPS) but would like to evaluate and, possibly, modify a couple of AV-1 flights, especially if NOAA is flying Cooperation and coordination will yield success for both agencies

To the new, brilliant italian GH scientist: 8 WE ARE COUNTING ON YOU TO PROVIDE GOOD HDVIS AND NIGHT TIME GH IMAGERY!!! :) “Sì, posso fare”(YES, I CAN DO)