Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480) // NRE 501) Richard B. Rood Space Research Building (North Campus) Winter 2008 January 3, 2008

Class News There will be a ctools site by the weekend First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming –And in particular two subsections Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: Simple climate models

Outline of lecture Who am I? Course Description Overview Some questions and Discussion Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem Science-Mitigation-Adaptation Framework

Who Am I? Scientist at NASA publishing in ozone modeling, climate modeling, physically-based analysis of observations –Current interest intersection of weather and climate Manager at NASA, modeling, data analysis, and high- performance computing Detailed to Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Participant in national and international assessments of ozone depletion and environmental impact of aircraft (IPCC) Advocate and developer of multi-agency programs in the U.S. to address climate change problems Participant in the development of U.S. high-performance computing policy

Who Am I? At U o’ Michigan teach –Geophysical Fluid Dynamics –Climate Change: The Move to Action Takes a systems approach to climate change –Science and how it sits in relationship to many other problems. Projects that took a hard look at a number of complex problems and tried to make recommendations … or at least evaluate the impact. Projects from previous climate change course –Carbon emissions trading and their role in climate change –Fuel taxes and the reduction of carbon emissions –Great Lakes fisheries and climate change –New Orleans (2 projects) Sea level rise Public health, petroleum industry infrastructure. –Coal-fueled power plants in Texas –Role of the World Trade Organization in carbon trading

Rood’s AOSS Web Site

SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences) Belief SystemValuesPerceptionCultural MandateSocietal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … Security Food Environmental National Societal Success Standard of Living...???... ECONOMICSPOLICY “BUSINESS”PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL JUSTICE ENERGY RELIGION??????

From Course Description Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc. –Where should we pay attention? –What do we know versus what do we believe? Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements –How big is the problem? How is all of this changing?

A Detail about the Course This year the first few weeks of the course is serving double duty. –Climate Change: The Move to Action –Introduction for science graduate students who will be splitting off into a separate section after a few weeks. They will do in depth quantitative study of component(s) of climate system –Water in physical climate –Cryosphere.

Course Project Reflective of workplace … –“Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.” Groups of individuals with varied expertise Responsive to “news” –Relationship of news to science Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the complex problem. –What are first steps? –What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken? Monitor progress // briefing during the course –Use of community web page –Development of wiki book –Possible publication on widely accessed web site. Presentation at end of course –Nomination for student prize

Questions When some one asks you about global warming, or you hear about global warming, what is your first reaction? –Is it bogus? Do you think that the planet is warming? Is this warming consequential? Is this warming manmade? Can we do something about it? What are the questions you want answered in this course?

Notes from Discussion Long-term 600 year shift There is enough knowledge to do something. (More certain than science of HIV/AIDS.) Global problem, but response by individuals Fear Misnomer: climate change, not warming –Climate is always changing Fashionable, currently in favor, but what do we do in the long term? Need of technology to address the problem “Skeptics” feed off of inconsistencies. Cooling in 1970s –Difference between 1970s and today Regional and local initiatives Sovereign states Protection of investments and interests motivate the players Blown out of proportion relative to other problems Role of media: Present two sides as if knowledge to support both sides is equal. Then we decide. Epic, global scale Energy, Energy, Energy

Questions, Discussion I want this course to include discussion, questions, unification, and expansion of ideas. –But to avoid “group think” Please suggest topics you are especially interested in.

Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change Some global climate predictions

The motivator: Increase of CO 2 (Keeling et al., 1996)

Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non- controversial. The prediction:

Projected Global Temperature Trends IPCC ‘ temperatures relative to Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).

Next Time We’ll really get started next time!