CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 1/38 Serhat SENSOY Vice-President WMO CCl Engineer in Climatology Division Ministry of Forestry and Water Works Turkish State Meteorological Service

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 2/38 Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) was founded in It is the only legal organization which provides all meteorological information in Turkey. Establishment

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 3/ The first meteorological observations started in Istanbul 1873 Participated in the International Meteorological Congress 1875 First Observation Network established with 16 stations 1915 Upper air observations and weather forecasts started 1925 Establishment of Meteorological Institute 1937 Establishment of Turkish State Meteorological Service Became member of International Organizations; WMO (1949) ECMWF (1975) EUMETSAT (1984) ECOMET (1999) 2000 Recognized as one of the 23 Regional Training Centre (RTC) 2008 Became member of ALADIN Consortium 2009 Became node in WMO RA VI RCC Network 2011 Re-organized History of TSMS

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 4/38 Organization Chart of TSMS

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 5/ In-Situ Observation Automatic Weather Observation Stations

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 6/38 Upper Air Observing Network 8 stations are making 2 times observation at 00 and 12 UTC in every day. They are transmitting data via GPS In-Situ Observation

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 7/38 In-Situ Observations, Airport and Marine Stations There are 62 airport stations, 50 of them with AWOSs Together with sea temperature observations in 19 stations, 40 AWOS will be installed on buoys and lighthouse target is 62 stations

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 8/38 Remote sensing Observations Weather Radars 10 C-Band Doppler Radars installed in Ankara, İstanbul, Zonguldak, Balıkesir, İzmir, Muğla, Antalya, Adana, (Samsun and Trabzon are in test phase), 50 X Band Radars will be installed in 2015

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 9/38 Remote Sensing Observations Turkey is been a EUMETSAT member since We are receiving data from EUMETSAT MSG(Geo-Stationary) in 3km spatial, 5 min. temporal resolution and from NOAA (polar) in 1km spatial and 6h temporal resolution Radar composit image MSG IR Ch-9 MSG IR increased colorfulness

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 10/38 MM5 Horizontal res. 13/4/2 km Vertical res.41 level/10 mb Forecast period: 72 hours ALADIN Horizontal resolution: 4 km Vertical res. 60 level/10 mb Forecast period: 48 hours Models TSMS is using following models: ECMWF MM5 ALADIN WRF METU3 (Marine) SWAN (Marine) DREAM-8 Dust Transport MEUS (Forest Fire) AGROMETSHELL RegCM3-4

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 11/38 Meteorological Communication and Application Package It simplifies communication between different forecast centre as well as prepare charts, images and diagrams. It consists of many modules for meteorological applications TURK-METCAP

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 12/38 Products & Services Weather Forecast  Nowcasting : hours forecasts;  Warnings : ~400warnings /year  Short Range : hours forecasts;  Medium Range : days forecasts;  Airports : TAF and SPECI;  Ocean : 1- 3 days forecasts;

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 13/38 Forecasts for severe weather; Heavy precipitation, thunderstorm, tornado, flood risk; Published on WWW, radio, and sent to cell-phones as SMS; Precautions managed by the cooperation with Disaster Coordination Centers and local authorities. Weather Forecast Very Short-Range Forecasts (Nowcasting) and Warnings:

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 14/38 Warnings Dust Transport Rainfall (mm) classification 1 – 5 light rain medium rainfall strong rainfall v. strong rainfall heavy rainfall >100 very heavy rainfall (urgent) (location) (valid time) (location) (valid time) (disruptions in transportation) (flash flood, lightning) Date time warning # Severty

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 15/38 Short range forecast

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 16/38 Medium range forecast

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 17/38 SMS and Services: Meteorological Warnings To prevent and reduce the losses due to extreme events, Early Warnings are prepared and sent to Public via GSM Operators (SMS) and to 4500 users.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 18/38 FM Radio Voice of Meteorology Our Radio Channel (“Meteor FM”) broadcasts in 27 cities and reaching almost 40 million people country-wide. Our broadcast is accessible all over the world via Turksat 1-C satellite.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 19/38 Android Application Latest observations for the selected city 5 days weather forecast for selected cities

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 20/38 Products & Services HIGHWAY FORECASTING SYSTEM METU-3 SEA-WAVE PREDICTION MODEL

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 21/38 Turkey became a Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS ) regional center on March FFGS is supported by WMO, HRC, NOAA and USAID. Aim of FFGS is to make flash flood warning for all participating countries Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Black Sea and Middle East Flash Flood Guidance System Bulgaria and Romania are observers and would become members in the future.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 22/38 The DREAM-8 model dust transport model has been developed at TSMS in cooperation with Spain under the EU TAIEX Small Grants Program. The operational forecasts by DREAM-8 has been started at June Forecasts are published at the TSMS website. Dust Transport Model Surface dust concentration (µg/m3)

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 23/38 MEUS- Early Warning Model for Forest Fire For the prevention of forest fires, “Meteorological Early Warning Model for Forest Fire” was developed and results of the model are sent to Directorate of Forest Administration.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 24/38 Agricultural Frost Risk Maps are prepared and published via website for 4 days and are updated every day Agricultural Frost Warning

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 25/38 Drought Monitoring Drought is monitoring by using Aydeniz, SPI, PNI and Palmer methods

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 26/38 Monthly & seasonal temperature analyses Temperature analyses have been doing by using real time data. It is using ArcGIS for interpolation and mapping purpose. It is calculating their differences from normal. Anomaly is the differences from normal ( ) and it is determining by using Z distribution. These analyses are delivering to the web site via xml codes.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 27/38 XML Codes of Monthly Temperature analyses

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 28/38 Annual climate assessment report We are preparing annual climate assessment for Turkey. This assessments is also been contributed to WMO’s and NOAA’s State of the Climate Report. Spatial and temporal temperature and precipitation anomalies in Turkey

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 29/38 Climate – Extreme event relations Small change in the mean can cause More extreme events!

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 30/38 Heat and cold wave analysis Figure. Heat and cold wave occurred stations in 2012 Heat wave (The daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C) observed in 66 stations more than one time mainly in April, June, July and September. Also Cold wave was (The daily minimum temperature of more than five consecutive days decreased the average minimum temperature by 5°C) observed in 33 stations in January, February and March.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 31/38 We are using WMO RClimDex software to calculate 27 climate indices. This software is very good tools to detect trends in temperature and precipitation extremes. Climate Indices studies Trends in summer day (a), tropical night (b), warm days (c) and warm night (d) are increasing all over Turkey

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 32/38 While temperature increasing will be limited up to 1940, towards the end of the century it will be reached 6°C Winter precipitation dramatically decrease (%10-30) in south part of Turkey and increase (%10-25) in the north for the period of Regional climate model studies RegCM3 Outputs New server has been bought to run RegCM-4 with new RCP Scenarios

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 33/38 Ozone and UV Observations In Ankara we are using Brewer Spectrophotometer and ozonesonde in order to observe atmospheric ozone profile Also there are 10 UV Automatic Observation Stations (5 more planned) Calculated UV values for 130 station are given at: Ozone and UV onservations are very important for public health

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 34/38 GPC, RTC, RCC, RCOF Liaison with GFCS CAP Needs for WMO Commission for Climatology WMO Commission for Climatology has OPACE 3 and 4 in which coordinate GPC, RTC, RCC, RCOF and has strong liaison with GFCS. Through this centers CCl delivers climate monitoring seasonal forecast and climate watch advisory which can be delivered via xml codes.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 35/38 TSMS take place in three nodes of RA VI RCC network

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 36/38 NCEP and TSMS data are using for monitoring purposes. Monitoring data have been reprocessing, spatially enhancing and mapping by using ArcGIS Spatial Analyze IDW interpolation technique.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 37/38 Seasonal Forecast is updated from ECMWF in every month for the next 3 month and contains precipitation and 2m temperature anomaly maps. According to WMO RA VI RCC Implementation Plan, Seasonal Forecast contains precipitation and 2m temperature anomaly maps are preparing by using ArcGIS and updated every month for the next 3 month.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 38/38 climate watch advisory can be delivered via xml codes.

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 39/38 SEECOF Contribution 2012 Summer Season Assessment of Turkey Compare to SEECOF7 Experts Forecasts According to seasonal outlook for summer season 2012, in the most of the SEECOF region there was expected more likelihood for the above average summer season temperature, while eastern part of Turkey, it is likely to be near to above normal. Generally, mean temperatures were above normal values in almost whole country. It was expected probably 60% above normal. For the zone 2, mean temperatures were around normal as expected probably 40% Summer Season Mean Temperature Anomaly of Turkey

CAP Implementation Workshop, April 2013, Geneva 40/38