The Curious Absence of New Nuclear Michael Hoeger Presented 02/06/2012

Outline Brief Review of Nuclear Energy Current Public Opinions Past Nuclear Accidents Comparison to Coal Media and Popular Culture Economics Question and Answer Session

Fission Overview Neutron is Absorbed by 235 U The 235 U atom briefly becomes 236 U The 236 U Atom Decays into lighter Atoms, Releases Energy, and 3 Neutrons [1]

Sustaining the Reaction Uranium 235 Atom Absorbs Neutron Neutrons Collide with 235 U, 238 U, or Nothing Neutron Collision with 235 U Produces more Neutrons Continuing the Chain [2]

How do Most Commercial Nuclear Reactors Work? [3] Simplified View of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)

Public Opinion November 11, 2011 [7]

Renewing Licenses and Allowing New Construction [7]

Most Support Investment in Low-Carbon Technologies [7]

Why did the Last Groundbreaking for a Nuclear Plant Occur in 1974 ?

Two Classical Arguments Safety Core Damage Frequency Radiation under Normal Operation Storage of Spent Fuel Economics Cost per Kwh Financing of New Plants Decommissioning

Core Damage Frequency Likelihood of an accident that causes damage to a reactor core Estimated that a core will be damaged in the United States once every 50,000 reactor years Globally there are 582 reactors totaling 14,400 reactor years, with a core damage frequency of 1,400 years

Core Damage Frequency Clearly reactors are damaged at a rate much higher than anticipated However, how many of these incidences were severe and what was the damage

Three Mile Island [9] No immediate deaths Average exposure of 8 mrems No person exposed to greater than 100 mrems A chest X-ray is equivalent to 8 mrems Each person is exposed to 310 mrems annually from natural background radiation For Comparison

Chernobyl [10] Around 31 immediate deaths TORCH Report concluded 30,000 to 60,000 premature cancer deaths Worst nuclear disaster of all time Highest dose rates around 3000 mrems per hour near the core

Fukushima [11] No immediate deaths Projected increase in cancer mortality rate to increase.001% total of 100 to 1000 Deaths The tsunami caused up to 16,000 to 20,000 Deaths 92.5% Drowned (12,143) 1.1% Burned (148) 4.4% Crushed or Fatal Injuries (578) Relative to Tsunami [12]

Normal Operating Radiation Levels The average person is exposed to 13 mrems living within a 50 mile radius of a nuclear plant The average person is exposed to 23 to 1.2 mrems living within the same radius equivalent size coal fired plant [13]

Spent Fuel Pools Spent fuel rods are kept on site pools until permanent geological disposal site is created The pools help cool the rods from decay heat and prevent criticality [14] Fuel may be stored in pool for 1-10 years before dry storage 1% of the original mass is converted to Plutonium [12]

Media and Popular Culture [4] [5] [6]

Media and Popular Culture Do those who disfavor nuclear energy have risk-averse behavior Does the media increase our perception of risk Are news stories sensationalized to gain the attention of viewers Nuclear Energy is an order of magnitude safer than coal

Capacity by Energy Source [18]

Generation by Source [18] Production Costs Coal3.06 Natural Gas4.82 Nuclear2.14 Cents per Kwh in 2010 [19]

U.S. Electricity Production Cost , In Cents per Kwh [20]

Financing New Plants Upfront costs are high and investors do not want to wait years for returns Florida Power & Light expects a cost of $5400 per Kwh installed Once new construction begins it is expected that cost will drop per Kwh installed [22]

Decommissioning Costs Total Cost per Plant $ million – Radiological$300 million – Used Fuel$ million – Restoration$50 million Total Cost of Fleet Decommissioning $31.9 billion – 2/3 of the decommissioning cost is already funded – The remaining cost will be funded over the next 20 years if the average plant is licensed for 40 years [21]

Permanente Storage For every 1000kg fuel used at a nuclear power plant over 999kg of fuel waste is created 2,000-2,300 metric tons of waste are created each year Over 65,000 metric tons have been created since the start of the industry There is no large permanent high-level waste site in the U.S. [23] [24]

Resources

Questions & Discussion