Population displacements and security risks Session 4

Introduction  Throughout history, men have always migrated for environmental reasons  But that’s also a reason largely ignored by researchers and policy makers.  Despite growing concerns  Linkage between environment and migration still controversial

Historical examples

The emergence of the concept  First mentioned in the 1970s  First UNEP report in 1985  Growing interest in the mid-2000s:  Realisation of the impacts of climate change  Major natural disasters  Tsunami 2004  Katrina 2005  Pakistan earthquake 2005 > Confusion between displacements linked to climate change and other environmental degradation.

A complex relationship  Migration itself is a very complex process Involves a wide array of factors, individual decision  Environmental factors are linked with economic, social and political factors When is environmental pressure the primary factor?  Environmental disruption can be a cause and a consequence of migration Resource scarcity, ‘green’ conflicts,...  Migration can also help to reduce the presure on resources

Which impacts of climate change can lead to displacements?

1. Sea-level rise Coastal regions will be first and most affected Source: NASA A sea-level rise of 1cm puts 1 million people at risk of displacement

2. Droughts and land degradation  Impacts on migration difficult to forecast  Migration flows tend to decrease at the peak of droughts  That’s because households affect their resources to primary needs.

3. Extreme meteorological events

Who and where?  In 2012, more than 32 million people were displaced by natural disasters, most of them climate-related.  Already a major trigger for displacement.  Mostly people who live in coastal floodplains:  Many major cities (Shanghai, Mumbai,...)  South and East Asia (Bangladesh, Vietnam,...)  African coastline (Nile delta, West coast)  SIDS  This in addition to those who will be temporarily displaced

Characteristics of the migrants

Empirical results from the EACH-FOR project  Positive relationship between environmental degradation and migration.  Different factors intermingle, but environmental factors are of growing importance.  Definitional issue  These factors increase the constraints to migration  Rise in forced migration  Migration flows are often internal, and happening on short distances  Affected countries bear all the burden of migration.  The most vulnerable are often unable to migrate.  Migration is expensive

Issue of the definition  Difficult  Mostly internal migration  Mingles with other factors  Controversial  Alarmists vs sceptics  A broad definition invites large numbers  Different agendas  Wide variety of terms (often misnomers)  Important  Policy-wise  Allows to forecast numbers

A disconnection from the realities of migration  Migrants are seen as expiatory, resourceless victims of climate change.  Many of them don’t consider themselves as victims, or don’t want to be considered as such.  Migrants are resourceful agents – they are not the most vulnerable  Migration is perceived as an adaptation failure  In many cases, it can be an adaptation strategy  We assume a direct, causal relationship between climate change and migration.  We expect that these displacements will be forced and international.  We assume that the nature and extent of the migration flows will depend upon the impacts of climate change.  Environmental determinism  Climate-induced migration often perceived as a threat to security.  In many cases, it can actually improve human security.

‘Climate refugees’ as the human faces of global warming  Migrants are often portrayed as expiatory, powerless victims of climate change.  They are also the first witnesses of climate change, the living proofs that global warming is under way.  The idea of a multi-causal migration doesn’t get along very well with this rhetoric.

London Futures, exhibition at the Museum of London

A ‘disaster ready for consumption’ (Farbotko 2011)

Policy responses: Different directions  Environmental policies  Rapid evolution since the 1990s  People displaced by natural disasters and/or climate change increasingly taken into account  New actors and structures: IASC, CCEMA, rise of adaptation in climate talks  New instruments:  Hyogo Framework  Operational Guidelines on Human Rights and Natural Disasters  Adaptation Funds > Climate negotiations often considered as the central policy forum with regard to environmental migration

 Migration and asylum policies  Have not really taken into account environmental factors so far  Very little progress in the governance of migration, no new instruments  Exception: temporary protection status  Two points to consider:  Traditional theories of migration are environmentally-blind  Migration scholars have a lesser impact on policy design than environmental scholars

Legal matters  People displaced by climate change are not refugees, according to the 1951 Geneva Convention:  No political persecution  But isn’t climate change a violent, political persecution to the most vulnerable?  Not always a border crossing  The displaced people flee their livelihood, not always their country  Forced migration?  Climate change adds a new dimension to the traditional distinction between forced and voluntary migration.

The Nansen Initiative  Launched in 2012 by the governement of Norway and Switzerland.  With support of Costa Rica, Australia, Philippines, Mexico, Kenya.  Walter Kälin as special envoy.  Intergovernmental process.  Goal: a protection agenda by 2015.

Two key policy issues  Enabling the right to leave  Enabling the right to choose  This will require different policy shifts:  Going beyond humanitarian aid  Not discriminating between displacements associated with climate change and those that are not.  Not restricting oneself to refugee law (Hyogo Framework, etc.)  Not focusing only on those who leave, but also one those who stay, sometimes forcibly.

Enabling the right to leave A challenge of migration policy  The right to leave is the key condition of asylum, originating after the Peace of Westphalia.  This right is currently jeopardised by environmental change.  The most vulnerable often find themselves unable to leave  Because they don’t have the resources to do so  Because of barriers to migration  Their life, health and livelihood are directly exposed to danger  Migration as a risk-reduction strategy  Issue of pro-active population displacements

Enabling the right to choose A challenge of adaptation policy  Many of the migrants are forced migrants, and many of the stayers are forced stayers.  Adaptation  In the origin region, adaptation will reduce the environmental constraints to migration.  Migration itself can be an adaptation strategy.  Adaptation will also be needed in the destination regions.  Adaptation and disaster-risk reduction  Burden-sharing and internationalisation of the costs.  No discrimination between climate change and other disasters.

Displacements as a source of conflicts?  Increased pressure on resources  Happens mostly within weak, fragile states  Ex: Darfur  Cumulative process: comes on top of socio- economic, poltical issues  Importance of the governance of migration

Threats to stability and security  Increase in the number of weak and fragile states  Risk for global economic development  Distributional conflict between polluters and sufferers  Human rights violations / Crises of legitimacy  Migration  Inter-state conflicts (destabilisation processes, state failures)  Migration does not have to be the missing link between climate impacts and conflicts.  And, in any case, is not the sole trigger.  Migration also represents an improvement of human security