© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Is the utilization of administrative data in short term statistics an ideal standard in the conflicting priorities of user demands, response burden and budget restrictions? IAOS Conference on Reshaping Official Statistics Shanghai, October 2008

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Paradigm of modern Statistics „Surveys are only used, when results from administrative data do not meet the statistical demands (concepts) and deviations from statistical concepts can not be eliminated in sufficient quality by estimations based on additional information.“ Folie 2

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Folie 3 Use of administrative data in economic statistics Turnover tax data from fiscal authorities Employment data from Federal Employment Agency monthly data: short term statistics other administrative data annually data: business register data from statistical surveys

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Folie 4 Context of the use of administrative data Potentials of administrative data for short-term statistics Reduction of response burden User demands (EU-, national and regional level, more information) Timeliness determined by authorities Less flexibility for new items New dependencies (e.g. tax legislation, external data suppliers) Quality of administrative data and estimation methods Reduction of costs

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Folie 5 Potenial uses of administrative data Administrative Data Use Act Verwaltungsdatenverwendungsgesetz Short-term statistics Trade, hotels and restaurants Installation, craft statistics National accounts Service sector Other statistics Business register Turnover tax statistics Intra-community trade in EU Defines the fields for the tests of the monthly data

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Folie 6 Restrictions of administrative data in Germany (1) Timeliness: t+60 days Relevance:  Deviations in definitions  Deviations from the statistical units (tax groups, local units instead of enterprises)  Deviant allocation to branches (activity classification)  Use of estimations based on business register and information from statistical surveys

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Folie 7 Restrictions of administrative data in Germany (2) Accuracy:  High deviations for the level of turnover and persons employed  Revisions of data  Missing values  Outliers  Deviant activity codes  Estimation methods used cannot totally compensate deviations  Effects: Restrictions cumulate with the level of disaggregation  In most fields: Full replacements of surveys is not possible

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Folie 8 Strategy of mixed data sources  Most of the restrictions can be reduced by using survey data for large enterprises (e.g. missing data, problems in estimating tax groups and multi-state enterprises, regional disaggregation)  Reduction of responds burden, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises  Reduction of cost, though set-up cost can be high and running cost do not decline in the same dimension as the respondents  More flexibility for new items  Less dependencies on amendment Depending on the user needs, mix models are in many cases a solution to combine reduction of burden and quality assurance

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Folie 9 Reshaping German short-term statistics  Service sector: Reduction of the survey from to units quarterly  Building completion and building installation: Administrative data are additionally used for the before uncovered small enterprises used to improve the quality for the items turnover and persons employed. No reduction of response burden.  Wholesale trade and sale and maintenance of motor vehicles: Reduction of the surveys from to monthly  Hotels and restaurants: No use of administrative data, restrictions cannot be compensated sufficiently with mixed source designs  Retail trade: No use of administrative data, timeliness of t+30 is demanded  Craft (a German peculiarity): Full replacement of the survey of units quarterly

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics  Situation in 2008  Influence of statistics on the construction of administrative data  Register-based economic statistical system  Better business register  Situation in 2004 Vision for short-term statistics

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Many Thanks for your attention! Jörg Enderer Federal Statistical Office Germany, Wiesbaden

© Statistisches Bundesamt, Division IB, Institute for Research and Development in Federal Statistics Folie 12 Statistical Offices Administrative Data Use Act sets the organizational framework in a decentralized statistical system Access to administrative data sources Federal Employment Office Fiscal Authorities