The frequency distribution of daily precipitation over the U.S. Emily J. Becker 1, E. Hugo Berbery 1, and R. Wayne Higgins 2 1: Department of Atmospheric.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

SIMULATION OF THE MONSOON SEASON IN SOUTH AMERICA DURING EXTREME PHASES OF ENSO: AND Intraseasonal variations Sensitivity experiments.

Advertisements

Plant Sector Workshop March 21, MIT – Progress on the Science of Weather and Climate ExtremesMarch 29, 2012 Motivation –Billion-dollar Disasters.

Analysis of Eastern Indian Ocean Cold and Warm Events: The air-sea interaction under the Indian monsoon background Qin Zhang RSIS, Climate Prediction Center,

The Effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Lightning Variability over the United States McArthur “Mack” Jones Jr. 1, Jeffrey M. Forbes 1, Ronald L.

1 Developing objective climate drought monitoring and prediction – A CTB project Kingtse Mo Team Leader Drought NIDIS.

Chukchi/Beaufort Seas Surface Wind Climatology, Variability, and Extremes from Reanalysis Data: Xiangdong Zhang, Jeremy Krieger, Paula Moreira,

Jim Noel Service Coordination Hydrologist March 2, 2012

The causes of extreme rainfall in East Africa: insights from observed data and GCMs Emily Black, Julia Slingo and Ken Sperber.

Validation of the NCEP CFS forecasts Suranjana Saha Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DOC.

Downstream weather impacts associated with atmospheric blocking: Linkage between low-frequency variability and weather extremes Marco L. Carrera, R. W.

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

NATS Lecture 17 Air Masses. Supplemental References for Today’s Lecture Lutgens, F. K. and E. J. Tarbuck, 2001: The Atmosphere, An Introduction.

Contemporaneous and Antecedent Links of Atlantic and Pacific Circulation Features with North American Hydroclimate: Structure and Interannual Variability.

Natural Climate Variability: Floods in Veracruz, Mexico in 2010: Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas 1 University of Maryland ----o---- WCRP Open Science Conference:

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Interannual Variability of Great Plains Summer Rainfall in Reanalyses and NCAR and NASA AMIP-like Simulations Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas Sumant Nigam Department.

CPC’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook & Future Plans April 20, 2010 Brad Pugh, CPC.

Genesis Potential Index and ENSO Suzana J. Camargo.

Monitoring Extreme Rain Events using Giovanni Amita Mehta and Ana Prados NASA-UMBC Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology (JCET)

SIO 210: ENSO conclusion Dec. 2, 2004 Interannual variability (end of this lecture + next) –Tropical Pacific: El Nino/Southern Oscillation –Southern Ocean.

Simulations of Floods and Droughts in the Western U.S. Under Climate Change L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory US CLIVAR/NCAR ASP Researcher.

Regional Climate Modeling in the Source Region of Yellow River with complex topography using the RegCM3: Model validation Pinhong Hui, Jianping Tang School.

THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM Anita Drumond and Tércio Ambrizzi University of São Paulo São Paulo, 2007

Satellite remote sensing in the classroom: Tracking the onset, propagation and variability of the North American monsoon Dorothea Ivanova Embry-Riddle.

Are Exceptionally Cold Vermont Winters Returning? Dr. Jay Shafer July 1, 2015 Lyndon State College 1.

The Caribbean Low Level Jet variability during August and September and its relation with the regional hydroclimate Ernesto Muñoz.

Diurnal Water and Energy Cycles over the Continental United States Alex Ruane John Roads Scripps Institution of Oceanography / UCSD February 27 th, 2006.

Projections of Future Climate from the GCMs Peter J. Sousounis Geography Department Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.

Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE) São Paulo, Brazil ( Integrated observed and modeled atmospheric water budget.

Extreme Weather Trends over the Pacific Northwest Cliff Mass Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington.

Seasonal Moisture Flux Variability over North America in NASA/NSIPP’s AMIP Simulation and Atmospheric Reanalysis By Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas and Sumant Nigam.

Regional Climate Simulations of summer precipitation over the United States and Mexico Kingtse Mo, Jae Schemm, Wayne Higgins, and H. K. Kim.

Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind/Wave PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind/Wave Workshop Anchorage, Alaska August 2, 2005 Storm Track Capabilities.

El Nino Teleconnections Philip Kreycik EPS 131 4/30/04.

July 25, 2001 presents “Past, Present, and Future” Ed Kieser.

Abnormal Weather October 22, Teleconnections Teleconnections: relationship between weather or climate patterns at two widely separated locations.

The Role of Antecedent Soil Moisture on Variability of the North American Monsoon System Chunmei Zhu a, Yun Qian b, Ruby Leung b, David Gochis c, Tereza.

Diurnal Water and Energy Cycles over the Continental United States Alex Ruane John Roads Scripps Institution of Oceanography / UCSD April 28 th, 2006 This.

Model representation of the diurnal cycle and moist surges along the Gulf of California during NAME Emily J. Becker and Ernesto Hugo Berbery Department.

C20C Workshop, ICTP Trieste 2004 The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO 2 on tropical cyclone behaviour in the Australian region Syktus J.

The climate and climate variability of the wind power resource in the Great Lakes region of the United States Sharon Zhong 1 *, Xiuping Li 1, Xindi Bian.

A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist – Associate Professor Engineering.

2010 AMS Effect of changes in GCM resolution on the connection between summertime precipitation, moisture flux, and the position of the Bermuda High Laura.

11 Predictability of Monsoons in CFS V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and Society Calverton, MD.

Introduction 1. Climate – Variations in temperature and precipitation are now predictable with a reasonable accuracy with lead times of up to a year (

THE SACZ PERSISTENCE, FORM INTENSITY, INTRASEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS AND IMPACTS ON EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS Leila M. V. Carvalho1,2 1IAG,

Data assimilation and Forecast activities in support of NAME Data assimilation and Forecast activities in support of NAME The NAME Team at CPC: Kingtse.

Inter-El Niño variability and its impact on the LLJ East of the Andes during Austral Summer Tércio Ambrizzi and Gyrlene A. M. da Silva Department of Atmospheric.

Diurnal Water and Energy Cycles over the Continental United States from three Reanalyses Alex Ruane John Roads Scripps Institution of Oceanography / UCSD.

Assessing the Influence of Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change on Snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the.

1 Hydro-climate Review for the water year 2008 Kingtse C. Mo and Wanru Wu Kingtse C. Mo and Wanru Wu Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS Climate Prediction.

“Pacific Decadal Oscillation” in SST [Mantua et al. 1997] Updated time series available online at: “warm” phase;

Normal Conditions The trade winds move warm surface water towards the western Pacific. Cold water wells up along the west coast of South America (the Peru.

Climatology of the Río de la Plata Basin: short and long term variability Mario Bidegain Facultad de Ciencias Universidad de la Republica Uruguay Workshop.

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

Northeast Regional Climate Information Projected Climate Changes for the Northeast More frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, 100-year storm.

1 Role of Antecedent Land Surface Conditions on North American Monsoon Rainfall Variability Chunmei Zhu Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

University Allied Workshop (1-3 July, 2008)

Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, and Sumant Nigam

Climate- Abiotic factor

The Experimental Climate Prediction Center Regional Spectral Model (ECPC-RSM) Contribution to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.

Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas Sumant Nigam

U.S. research dealing with climate change impacts on hydrological extremes Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Variability of the North American Monsoon

Issues for regional modeling

Understanding and forecasting seasonal-to-decadal climate variations

Winter/Spring Outlook:

Presentation transcript:

The frequency distribution of daily precipitation over the U.S. Emily J. Becker 1, E. Hugo Berbery 1, and R. Wayne Higgins 2 1: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Univ. of MD 2: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Outline 1.Introduction, Data and Method 2.Seasonal precipitation frequency distribution 3.Seasonal frequency distribution of precipitation- related variables 4.ENSO modulation of precipitation and precipitation- related variables 5.Summary & conclusions Objective: Examine the seasonal characteristics of the frequency distribution of precipitation and its dependence on the lower frequency modulation of ENSO during winter

Daily precipitation Changes in the frequency and intensity of daily precipitation within a season can occur independently from changes in seasonal meanChanges in the frequency and intensity of daily precipitation within a season can occur independently from changes in seasonal mean More extreme events can lead to high streamflow, flooding (Groisman et al. 2001)More extreme events can lead to high streamflow, flooding (Groisman et al. 2001) Often see greater increase in extremes than in mean totalOften see greater increase in extremes than in mean total

Data: NARR North American Regional ReanalysisNorth American Regional Reanalysis 1979-present ( for this study)1979-present ( for this study) 32-km horizontal resolution, 45 vertical layers32-km horizontal resolution, 45 vertical layers Developed with 2003 version of the Eta model; Eta model coupled with Noah land surface modelDeveloped with 2003 version of the Eta model; Eta model coupled with Noah land surface model Precipitation is assimilatedPrecipitation is assimilated Extremely high agreement between NARR precip. and observationsExtremely high agreement between NARR precip. and observations

Gamma distribution pp distrib. positively skewed, bounded on left by 0pp distrib. positively skewed, bounded on left by 0 Shape (α) describes skewnessShape (α) describes skewness Scale (β) stretches or shrinks along x-axisScale (β) stretches or shrinks along x-axis BlueRed mn α β α β = mean α β = mean

winter (JFM) precipitation scaleshape wet-day mean frequency wet-day mean frequency scale-dominated areas (large scale, small shape): more precipitation received from extremesscale-dominated areas (large scale, small shape): more precipitation received from extremes shape-dominated areas (large shape, small scale): more precipitation from more-frequent lighter events *shape-dominated areas (large shape, small scale): more precipitation from more-frequent lighter events * in winter, most areas with high wet-day mean are scale-dominatedin winter, most areas with high wet-day mean are scale-dominated northern Plains and Great Lakes are shape-dominatednorthern Plains and Great Lakes are shape-dominated Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts are scale-dominatedAtlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts are scale-dominated * After Husak et al. (2007)

summer (JAS) precipitation Great Plains Low-Level Jet: scale-dominatedGreat Plains Low-Level Jet: scale-dominated North American monsoonNorth American monsoon Southeast: mean dominated by light/moderateSoutheast: mean dominated by light/moderate scaleshape wet-day mean frequency wet-day mean frequency

precipitation-related factors Precipitable water (total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column, mm)Precipitable water (total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column, mm) Vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence (MFC): earlier work (Silva and Berbery, 2006) suggests model forecasts have better representation of MFC distribution than of precipitationVertically-integrated moisture flux convergence (MFC): earlier work (Silva and Berbery, 2006) suggests model forecasts have better representation of MFC distribution than of precipitation Also convective available potential energy (CAPE)Also convective available potential energy (CAPE)

winter prec. water precipitationMFC Mean prec. water generally similar to mean precipitation, but scale parameters (representing contribution of extremes) not strongly linkedMean prec. water generally similar to mean precipitation, but scale parameters (representing contribution of extremes) not strongly linked MFC and precip. scale parameters have strong resemblanceMFC and precip. scale parameters have strong resemblance

summer Prec. water much larger in summer; distribution is close to Gaussian (shape > 20) over most of countryPrec. water much larger in summer; distribution is close to Gaussian (shape > 20) over most of country GPLLJ and NAM evident in both prec. water and MFC meanGPLLJ and NAM evident in both prec. water and MFC mean MFC reflects both mean and extreme precipitationMFC reflects both mean and extreme precipitation prec. water precipitationMFC mean scale

ENSO modulation 5 strongest El Niño winters and 5 strongest La Niña winters in record using CPC’s Oceanic Niño Index5 strongest El Niño winters and 5 strongest La Niña winters in record using CPC’s Oceanic Niño Index El Niño 200 hPa zonal wind La Niña 200 hPa zonal wind

ENSO and winter precip.

Areas with major changes in mean precip: southwest, Great Plains (Lower Missouri River basin), Ohio River basin, southeast Most of these areas show changes in extremes with same spatial extent and greater magnitude Shape of distribution is less sensitive to changes in climate Increased wet-day frequency during El Niño in southwest

ENSO: prec. water and MFC prec. water precipitationMFC Mean pr. water: little change with ENSO MFC changes are similar to precipitation; same areas, lesser magnitude

summary & conclusions During winter, mean precipitation over most of the U.S. is dominated by contribution of heavy and extreme daily eventsDuring winter, mean precipitation over most of the U.S. is dominated by contribution of heavy and extreme daily events Throughout the year, areas of the country with more variable and extreme rainfall have strong daily MFCThroughout the year, areas of the country with more variable and extreme rainfall have strong daily MFC Precipitation frequency distribution not strongly linked to prec. water distributionPrecipitation frequency distribution not strongly linked to prec. water distribution Most areas with large change in mean precipitation between ENSO phases have greater change in extremesMost areas with large change in mean precipitation between ENSO phases have greater change in extremes ENSO-related change in MFC distribution similar to precipitationENSO-related change in MFC distribution similar to precipitation

references Becker, E.J., E.H. Berbery, and R.W. Higgins, 2008: The frequency distribution of daily precipitation over the United States. J. Climate, submittedBecker, E.J., E.H. Berbery, and R.W. Higgins, 2008: The frequency distribution of daily precipitation over the United States. J. Climate, submitted Higgins, R.W., V. Silva, J. Larson, and W. Shi, Relationships between climate variability and fluctuations in daily precipitation over the United States. J. Climate, 15, Higgins, R.W., V. Silva, J. Larson, and W. Shi, Relationships between climate variability and fluctuations in daily precipitation over the United States. J. Climate, 15, Husak, G.J., J. Michaelsen, and C. Funk, Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications. Int. J. Climatol., 27, Husak, G.J., J. Michaelsen, and C. Funk, Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications. Int. J. Climatol., 27,