Estimation of Genetic Multipliers for Douglas-Fir Height- and Diameter- Growth Models Peter J. Gould, David D. Marshall, Randy Johnson and Greg Johnson.

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Presentation transcript:

Estimation of Genetic Multipliers for Douglas-Fir Height- and Diameter- Growth Models Peter J. Gould, David D. Marshall, Randy Johnson and Greg Johnson

1. Estimate growth differences between average (wood’s-run) tree and individual families in terms of genetic-gain multipliers. 2. Relate multipliers to breeding value (BV = percent gain at age 10). 3. Evaluate multipliers effects in model. Study Objectives

Effect of Multipliers Initial Size Advantage Gain Multiplier= 0.05 Typical Tree

Coop: breeding zone. Completely independent families. Sites: Geographical locations within coops. NWTIC 1 st -Generation Progeny Tests Rep 1Rep 2 Rep 3Rep 4 Rep 1Rep 2 Rep 3Rep 4 Rep 1Rep 2 Rep 3Rep 4 SET 1SET 2SET 3

DBH Data: Variation between Coops 10-YR GROWTH PERIOD

DBH Data: Variation between Sites 10-YR GROWTH PERIOD

DBH Data: Variation between Sets 10-YR GROWTH PERIOD

DBH Data: Breeding Values BV = Age 10 Gain 1 (percent)

1. Average growth = wood’s run. 2. Multipliers work with any unbiased growth model. 3. Removing sources of variation other than genetics is very important. Modeling Strategy: Assumptions

Strategy: 1. Fit models with random effects at site-set level. 2. Calculate genetic multiplier (m) for each family at coop level. Obs = m ∙ Pred 3. Estimate m from BV. m = A0 + A1 ∙ BV

>16 coops > 109 sites > 513 site-sets > 2485 families > observations 10-YR Modeling Dataset: HT Model

∆HT = b1∙HT b2 ∙b3 HT random effects on b1,b2,b3 Fixed Effects: ∆HT = 231.7∙HT 0.94 ∙0.86 HT HT Model 1

ModelR2R2 Base37.6 Base + random effect69.0 Residual Variation (%)31.0 Between Families (%) 2.4

HT Model Results: Family M

>7 coops > 45 sites > 193 site-sets > 1160 families > observations Modeling Datasets: DBH Model

∆DBH = b1∙DBH b2 ∙b3 DBH ∙b4 BA REP random effects on b1,b2,b3 Fixed Effects: ∆DBH = 3.7∙DBH 0.3 ∙1.01 DBH ∙0.97 BA REP DBH Model 1

ModelR2R2 Base25.5 Base + random effect61.6 Residual Variation (%)38.4 Between Families (%) 3.3

DBH Model Results: Family M

10-yr A1 estimates: StudyHtDiameter Gould Marshall R. Johnson (BV = 13%) G. Johnson (assume BV=13%) ?

Other Periods Ht data for 5-yr (167,000 obs) and 15-yr (7600 obs) growth. DBH data for 5-yr (7,700 obs) and 15-yr growth (20,000). Estimates of m are higher for 5-yr, but about the same for 15-yr growth.

What’s Next? Manuscript on multipliers. ORGANON interface. Test multipliers.