The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Nina will last through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring

Temperature YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo AvgDJF Winter Avg Best Strong Best Strong Best Moderate Best Moderate Strong Strong Strong Strong Moderate Moderate Moderate La Nina Composite All Years Precipitation YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalDJF Winter Total Best Strong Best Strong Best Moderate Best Moderate Strong Strong Strong Strong Moderate Moderate Moderate La Nina Composite All Years

Snowfall YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalWinter Total Best Strong Best Strong Best Moderate Best Moderate Strong Strong Strong Strong Moderate Moderate Moderate La Nina CompositeAll Years # Days > T(> 2.0)1 (0)4 (1)5 (1)4 (1)2 (0)16 (3)13 (3) YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalWinter Total Best Strong (1)5 (1)1114 (2)13 (2) Best Strong (1)013 (1)12 (1) Best Moderate (1)4214 (1)12 (1) Best Moderate (1)34 (2)3 (2)12 (5)9 (3) Strong (1)3219 (1)8 (1) Strong (1)6 (2) 4 (1)21 (6)14 (5) Strong (2)36 (1)4 (1)116 (4)13 (2) Strong (1)110 (1)9 (1) Moderate (1)6 (1)3 (1)14 (3)11 (2) Moderate (1)44 (1)9 (1)22 (3)11 (2) Moderate (2)6 (1)4 (1)119 (5)16 (5) La Nina CompositeAll Years (3)12 (2)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Temperature YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo AvgDJF Winter Avg La Nina Composite Precipitation YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalDJF Winter Total La Nina Composite Snowfall YearNovDecJanFebMar5-Mo TotalDJF Winter Total M MM La Nina Composite

The atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, as well as SST anomalies indicate moderate to strong La Nina conditions already present across the entire tropical Pacific Ocean SST anomalies are around-1.4 o C in the 4 Niño regions, indicative of the beginning of a strong La Nina episode Based on recent trends and a majority of the statistical and dynamic coupled model forecasts, La Nina conditions should maintain their intensity during the next several months and will likely continue into at least the spring months of 2011 – possibly challenging some of the stronger La Nina episodes on record.

Based on past 10 year temperature trends and composites of past moderate to strong La Nina winter seasons, there exists a slightly better than normal chance that winter temperatures in eastern Kansas and Missouri will be above average Choosing a best analog set of the top 4 matching winter seasons based on SST anomalies and MEI time series, the highest probabilities point towards warmer than average temperatures early in the winter season, with less predictability and larger variability later in the winter There is no reliable predictability concerning precipitation or snowfall based on La Nina composites or analogs with a wide range of historical outcomes