Research in Politics PS 366, WWU

Political science? What do we study? What is scientific about it? What is science?

Knowledge How do we know what we know about anything? Non-scientific ways of knowing: – 1) – 2) – 3)

Political / social science How do we know what we know about social phenomena? Political / social scientific ways of knowing: – 1) – 2) – 3)

‘Real’ (Natural) Scientists study: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5)

‘Real’ (Natural) Science studies? Causes of malaria Climate change Ocean acidification Plant diseases Paleobotanist Science vs. engineering?

‘Real’ Science? Which sciences are more ‘scientific’? Physics Biology Chemistry Archeology Medicine Environmental Science Which social sciences are more ‘scientific?’ Psychology Anthropology Sociology Political Science Economics Environmental Studies

What difference Social sciences See last slide Humanities Philosophy History

‘Real’ (Natural) Science is Theory / grand explanation Hypotheses Observation (measurement, experiments) Explanation / prediction

Social Example 1): Does race / enthnicity predict voting? What measures? What is the causal argument?

Example 1: Voting What theory / explanation? What hypotheses? How observe, measure, test?

Example 2) When do nations go to war? What motives? – Domestic, international? Who are they? – which nations Do democratic nations go to war with each other? What is it? – A war? A nation?

Example 2) When do nations go to war? What theory / explanation? What hypotheses? How observe, measure, test?

Example 3 Why do some Americans have more or less confidence in that elections are fair? – What theory / explanation? – What hypotheses? – How observe, measure, test?

Perceptions of elections Democrat Republican Independent Voting more than once is very common11%27%22% Pretending to be someone else when voting is very common13%28%24% Voters who are not US citizens voting is very common13%39%30% Very confident in state's vote count45%50%39%

Theory vs hypotheses We have very little theory, strictly speaking – A way to interpret facts, and explanation of facts – not and ‘idea’ or a ‘hunch’ – generates hypotheses & predictions – A body of understanding generally accepted and proven by observations of facts Evolution, gravity, relativity,

Theory vs hypotheses We have LOTS of hypotheses – A statement that is testable, falsifiable – Explaining why one thing causes variation in another – A statement about the relationship between two two variables

Variables Something that takes on two or more values – Income, education – Wealth – Religious affiliation – Gender, employment – Race – partisanship – opinion on x Can be measured at different ‘levels’ – continuous – ?? – multi category – dichotomous (?) – arbitrary categories – lots of options

Variables Levels of measurement – nominal ( 0 or 1) categorical (A, C, G, or K). – ordinal 1 st, 2 nd, 3 rd strong agree, agree, disagree, strong disagree – interval / ratio ratio has a zero point

Levels of Measurement Nominal – Things classified or categorized – No rank order – No scale Race, gender, hair color,

Levels of Measurement Ordinal – Things classified, categorized – Things ordered, ranked – No set distance between categories – More of, less than Satisfaction with democracy; prejudice; academic rank; party identification

Levels of Measurement Interval / ratio – Things measured on a continuous scale – Equal distance between units on scale – (if ratio) zero means zero Age (years); GPA; income; education (years) IQ; Celsius scale[zero = ??]

Levels of Measurment Ordinal and Interval can blur – Very satisfied (1) – Satisfied (2) – Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied (3) – Dissatisfied (4) – Very dissatisfied (5) – What if 200 observations, and mean = 4.2 ?

Units of analysis Level at which we are observing something: – individual student test score – classroom average test score – state average test score – nation average test score

Levels of Measurement Ordinal and Interval can blur – Very satisfied (1) – Satisfied (2) – Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied (3) – Dissatisfied (4) – Very dissatisfied (5) – What if 200 observations, and mean = 4.2 ?

Dependent vs independent variables You call something a dependent variable, you are making a hypotehsis – Quality of dependent variable depends and external factor – Independent variable causes variation in the dependent variable but we don’t say that it does

Dependent vs independent variables Causality – Nearly impossible to prove in social science – Why? – How to ‘show’ causality? Logic of argument behind hypothesis

Differences between natural and social sciences? Objects of observation Modes of observation Ability to predict Can social phenomena be studied scientifically?

Why bother? A systematic process of asking questions Avoid being misled by stereotypes, false preconceptions Ability to be communicable, replicable, cumulative, valid

Problems Reductionism – What we can measure may be not as important as what we can’t measure – What can’t we measure? good, evil right, wrong

Review Construct a hypothesis: – What relationship between crime rate and number of police in a city? – Dependent? Independent?

Review What level of measurement is: – Nominal, ordinal, interval Number of people in your family Place of residence (urban, rural, other) US unemployment rate Vote for president Percent of students at WWU from public HS

Review Give two different measures, at different levels, for these: – individual’s age – annual income – religiosity – attitude toward gun control