Adoption and Numbers

The Policy Process Interest group theory – We need to mobilize people that support us – Identify those against us Institutional rational choice – Operational, collective choice, and constitutional – Need policies that have relevant rules at all three Path dependence – Policy feedback – Beware of: quick fixes and radical policies

The Policy Process Advocacy coalition – Policy subsystems – Deep core beliefs, core policy beliefs, secondary beliefs – Beliefs are changeable Social construction – Advantaged, dependents, contenders, deviants – Need to watch how we frame Multiple streams – Problem, policy, politics – Policy window – Always need to be ready Punctuated equilibrium – Anticipate stability with occasional punctuation

Practical Approach to Feasibility Identify relevant actors – Assume everyone may be! Understand motivations – Where you stand, depends on where you sit Assess resources of actors Choose arena Strategies within arenas – Co-optation – Compromise Negotiate interests rather than positions These are human beings – Heresthetics Manipulate agenda Sophisticated voting – Rhetoric Frame the issues well!

CBA Appropriateness as decision rule depends on whether efficiency is the only relevant value and the extent to which impacts can be monetized

Identify Relevant Impacts Geographic extent Persons and preferences

Monetize Impacts Kaldor-Hicks criterion: policy should be adopted only if those who will gain could fully compensate losers and still be better off. Opportunity costs (valuing input) Willingness to pay (valuing outcomes) Estimate demand for nonmarketed goods – Hedonic price models – Contingent valuation surveys – Actual behavior

Discount for Time and Risk Present value v. Expected value Discounting Expected value: p. 406

Choosing a Policy You want to maximize net benefits Must have mutually exclusive policy options – Synergistic is encouraged, however Uninformed v. informed v. best guess

Importance of Data Methods Cross-tabs v. regression