International Civil Aviation Organization Colloquium on Environmental Aspects of Aviation Aircraft Emissions - The Way Forward Willard Dodds, Chairman ICCAIA Noise and Emissions Committee Montreal, 9-11 April 2001

Elements of ICAO CAEP Approach Terms of Reference –Technical Feasibility - Safety –Environmental Benefit –Economic Reasonableness Environmental Balance/Tradeoffs –Noise –Climate Change –Local Air Quality Program Balance –Source Reductions (Technology) –Operational Measures (Airlines and ATC) –Market Based Measures Unique ICAO Resources Address Complex Issues

Emission Issues Issue Key Species Mitigation Climate Change- Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )- Fuel Efficiency - Water Vapor- Operational Measures - NOx- Combustor Design Local Air Quality - NOx - Combustor Design - Carbon Monoxide (CO)- Operational - Unburned Hydrocarbon (HC) Measures - Smoke/Soot

Continuous emissions reductions ICAO Data Bank provides current emissions certification data Required design/test margins ensure that certificated product emissions are below ICAO limits Local Air Quality Ref: The Boeing Company

Continuous fuel efficiency improvements driven by market forces Market based measures are being considered by ICAO –Long term - open emissions trading –Near term - voluntary programs Climate Change 70% Fuel Efficiency Improvement over 40 Years

CO 2 /NOx Trade Higher engine pressure ratio and bypass ratio reduce CO 2 /improve fuel efficiency (SFC) and facilitate noise reduction SFC SFC (lb/lb-hr, or EI NOx) Overall Pressure Ratio

CO 2 /NOx Trade Higher engine pressure ratio and bypass ratio reduce CO 2 /improve fuel efficiency (SFC) and facilitate noise reduction Higher pressure ratio requires higher flame temperature, increasing NOx formation rate NO X SFC SFC (lb/lb-hr, or EI NOx) Overall Pressure Ratio

CO 2 /NOx Trade Higher engine pressure ratio and bypass ratio reduce CO 2 /improve fuel efficiency (SFC) and facilitate noise reduction Higher pressure ratio requires higher flame temperature, increasing NOx formation rate Better NOx technology needed to avoid increased emissions NO X SFC SFC (lb/lb-hr, or EI NOx) Overall Pressure Ratio

Continuous technology improvement has substantially reduced all emissions from modern engines Government and industry emissions reduction technology programs are underway Barriers to wider introduction of these technologies: –high development and certification investment with low production volume –durability, operability, reliability & production cost risks –environmental tradeoffs –unclear policy objectives –unrealistic short term technology expectations ICAO WG 3 Long Term Goals Group is addressing technology transition issues Emissions Technology Outlook

Emissions Technology Expectations 17 ICCAIA - Working Group 3 Papers prepared for CAEP/5 Papers support IPCC Special Report projection of 20% improvement in fuel efficiency between 1997 and 2015 NOx reduction technology is progressing faster than the IPCC scenario for NOx emissions 30-50% below CAEP/2 limits by 2020 Concerns relative to the rate of future progress due to –uncertain research funding –environmental and technological tradeoffs/priorities –increasing challenge to improve on current technology

Summary and Conclusions ICAO is uniquely qualified to set aviation environmental standards –Brings together resources to balance complex trade-offs –Avoids proliferation of confusing, inconsistent and counterproductive local rules –Globally harmonized approach for a global industry Manufacturers continually work to improve emissions technologies –Need consistent and consolidated scientific basis for valid trade-off analyses –Aircraft emissions reduction efforts should be part of a balanced program including improved operational factors –Successful long term research requires continuous support and consistent goals CAEP/6 Work Program has proper elements to move forward on local air quality and climate