1.Food is necessary for people to survive. 2.Passion between the sexes in necessary and will continue in its present state. 3.The power of population growth is greater than the power of the earth to produce subsistence. Two hundred years ago the English economist Thomas Malthus stated the human population problem. He based his argument on three premises.

The Malthusian premises make use of an important law Liebig’s Law of the Minimum: Growth or survival of any population is directly related to the life requirement that is in least supply and not on a combination of factors. Liebig’s Law of the Minimum states that population growth is limited to the critical resource (air, water, food and/or shelter) that is in least abundance. Without adequate supplies or satisfactory alternatives to life’s critical resources, a population will not be able to continue.

Thomas Malthus presented an application of Liebig’s law to Human Population Growth. A.Human population grows exponentially B.Abundance of critical resources grows arithmetically. C.When Human Population Growth presents more people than can be supplied by the amount of food produced, there exists a surplus population, and a scarcity of resources D.It logically follows that surplus population is controlled by such catastrophes as are brought on by scarcities of resources These catastrophes include war, disease, famine & the consequences of ill preparation in the face of floods, hurricanes, storms, tornadoes, earthquakes and other such natural calamities.

Neither Liebig nor Malthus were cognizant of the impact modern science and technology could have on their models Science and Technology are built on pre-existing knowledge. Therefore the growth of science and technology, like population, is also exponential. The impact the impact this growth can have on the Liebig — Malthus model is exponential. At this point, in the area of actual food production, technology has permitted humankind to continue to grow at exponential rates.

It appears then that there is race between the accumulation of problems brought on by continued exponential growth, and the presentation of solutions by science and technology to address these problems. However, technology is a two edged sword. It offers solutions to environmental problems. But, technology also causes new problems of its own that would not have occurred in the absence of technology.

The Multiplier Effect of Population: The impact of technology must be multiplied by the number of people who will use the technology. We speak of this as “the environmental impact per capita.” The Principle of Market Success: The more successful a technology is at meeting its purpose, the more the technology will be used. The more the technology is used the greater will be its impact on the environment (e.g pesticides, herbicides and genetic engineering of foods). The Principle of Conspicuous Consumption: The greater the quantity that can be produced, the less it costs per unit. The less it costs per unit, the more demand will increase on the product (and the resources from which it is made.

The most straight forward example of Environmental Cost—Benefit Analysis is here in the United States where there are legal mandates that for all development projects anticipated to have a substantial impact on the existing environment, an Environmental Impact Statement must be prepared and submitted to appropriate government authorities which assesses the Costs and Benefits of the developmental project. This leads to the Principle of Cost vs. Benefit: The greater the impact a technology has to benefit the environment, the greater that same technology has to harm, or in some way deficit, the environment.

PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY CURVE Q U A N T I T Y HUBBERT'S PEAK... TIME Increase Production Peak Production TIME Red Line = Product Demand Curve Area Under Curve = TOTAL RESOURCES AVAILABLE Curve = Production Rate Production Augmentation Production Decline

1 QUAD is the approximate energy obtained from each of the following: 36 million tonnes of coal (400,000 rail cars) 24 million tonnes (167million barrels) of oil (10,000 supertankers) 28 billion cubic metres of natural gas 33 standard (1 gigawatt) electric power stations in one year. 660 sq. km. aggregate surface area of perfectly oriented, 10% efficient photoelectric solar collectors at sea level in clear conditions in one year. 44,000x750 kW strategically placed windmills operating at peak level for one year. No allowance is made for transmission or conversion efficiency beyond the point of generation, for cloudy (solar) or calm (wind) conditions, nor for the energy consumed in construction and maintenance of the plants (i.e. net energy considerations). NOTE: A change of 1 Quad/annum (e.g. replacing 33 coal-fired power stations by 33 nuclear stations in one year) is too small a change to make a noticeable difference in the above diagram. 10 times that would be required just to accommodate the growth in demand. 20 quads/annum would be required to begin to replace fossil fuels at an adequate rate. Even replacement at this enormous rate would not avoid further climatic disruption and irreparable damage to the environment.

Scenario 1: Standard Run

Scenario 2: Doubled Resources - The number of estimated natural resources is doubled from the current "best" estimate.

Scenario 3: Doubled Resources & Pollution Control Technology Allocate capital to bring pollution to 1975 levels. 20 year lag time.

Scenario 6: Double Resources, Pollution Control Technologies, Land Yield and Erosion Control Technologies, and Resource Efficiency Technology.

Scenario 7: All advanced technologies from Scenario 6 with lag time of only 5 years instead of 20.

Scenario 8: Stabilize World Population at 2 children per family in 1995.

Scenario 10: Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6 and Moderate Industry and Lower Standard of Living; apply controls in 1995 with 20 year lag time.

Scenario 11: Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6 and Moderate Industry and Lower Standard of Living; apply controls in 1975 with 20 year lag time.

Scenario 12 Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6 and Moderate Industry and Lower Standard of Living; apply controls in 2015 with 20 year lag time.

Scenario 13: Stabilize Population; All Technologies from Scenario 6, but with Higher Goals (Standard of Living) for Food and Industry Output; apply controls in 1995 with 20 year lag time.