Applications of Models-3/CMAQ: From Urban and Regional to Hemispheric Scales Carey Jang, Ph.D. Air Quality Modeling Group Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards U.S. EPA, RTP, NC Models-3 User Workshop, 10/28/03

Los Angeles Forest Fire Oct. 26, 2003

OUTLINE “One-Atmosphere” : Linkages of Ozone and PM (and other pollutants) “One Modeling System”: Urban, Regional, and Hemispheric Scales “One Community”: U.S., Pacific/Atlantic Regions, East Asia (China & Taiwan)

One-Atmosphere Approach Mobile Sources Ozone NOx, VOC, PM, Toxics PM (Cars, trucks, planes, boats, etc.) Industrial Sources Acid Rain Chemistry Meteorology NOx, VOC, SOx, PM, Toxics Visibility (Power plants, refineries/ chemical plants, etc.) Air Toxics Atmospheric Deposition Area Sources Climate Change NOx, VOC, PM, Toxics (Residential, farming commercial, biogenic, etc.)

Example of “One-Atmosphere” Modeling Impact of 50 % NOx Emission Reduction on PM 2.5 July 15, 1995

Impact of 50% NOx emission reduction Nitrate PM decrease Sulfate PM decrease July 15, 1995

Impact of 50% NOx emission reduction O3 decrease HOx decrease July 15, 1995

Formation of Secondary PM (PM2.5): Sulfate PM formation: H2SO4 + 2 NH3 ---> (NH4)2SO4 (s) Gas Phase: SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4 Aqueous Phase: S(IV) + H2O2 ---> H2SO4 (Dominate over low pH) S(IV) + O3 ---> H2SO4 Nitrate PM formation: HNO3 + NH3 <---> NH4NO3 (aq,s) Gas Phase: (daytime) NO2 + OH ---> HNO3 Gas & Heterogeneous Phase : (night) N2O5 + H2O ---> HNO3 Organic PM formation: VOC* + OH, O3, NO3 Gas Phase: ---> Condensable VOC products (semi-volatile) Aerosol Phase: ---> SOA *: Long-chain VOC (C7 & above), Aromatics, Biogenic VOC (terpene)

Impact of 50% NOx emission reduction O3 decrease HOx decrease July 15, 1995

Impact of 50% NOx emission reduction Nitrate PM decrease Sulfate PM decrease July 15, 1995

(July monthly Average, 1996) 50% NOx reduction Nitrate PM Sulfate PM -- (decrease) -- (decrease) (July monthly Average, 1996)

50% NOx reduction Ozone Organic PM -- (decrease) -- (decrease) (July Average, 1996)

Secondary PM formation Linkages between O3 and PM

.OH Role in Linking Pollutants Formation : One-Atmosphere PM2.5 VOC + OH ---> Orgainic PM SOx [or NOx] + NH3 + OH ---> (NH4)2SO4 [or NH4NO3] One Atmosphere Ozone Visibility Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM) One Atmosphere .OH NOx + VOC + OH + hv ---> O3 Water Quality Acid Rain SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4 NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification, Eutrophication) NO2 + OH ---> HNO3 Air Toxics OH <---> Air Toxics (POPs, Hg, etc.)

OUTLINE “One Modeling System”: Urban, Regional, and Hemispheric Scales “One-Atmosphere” : Linkages of Ozone and PM (and other pollutants) “One Modeling System”: Urban, Regional, and Hemispheric Scales “One Community”: U.S., Pacific/Atlantic Regions, East Asia (China & Taiwan)

Air Quality Modeling Applications at EPA/OAQPS Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain China Modeling Domain U.S. Modeling Domain 36 km eastern US domain Showed this plot before -- just to reorient. Western US - 36/12, ozone only, episodic (July 1996) National US - 36, ozone & PM, entire year of 1996 Eastern US - 36/12/4, ozone & PM, episodic (July 1995) 4 km domain 12 km western US domain 12 km domain 36 km western US domain 36 km Annual National US domain

M3/CMAQ Applications at EPA/OAQPS “U.S.” Modeling: Air Quality Modeling Group (Jang, Dolwick, Timin, Possiel, Tikvart, Evangelista, Braverman, Strum, etc.) “Intercontinental” Modeling: EPA (Jang, Doll), UNC-CEP (Hanna, Vukovich, Xiu, Adelman, Mathur) ANL (Streets), Harvard (Jacob), Stanford (Jacobson), U. of TN (Fu), U. of Iowa (Woo), NCSU (Xie & Wang) “East Asia” Modeling: EPA (Jang), U. of TN (Fu), ANL (Streets), U. of Iowa (Woo), NCSU (Xie & Wang), China-SAES, Taiwan-CCTI & NCKU EPA/ORD Support is the key for the success !

Models-3/CMAQ Simulation: Annual Average (1996) PM 2.5 Sulfate PM Nitrate PM Organic PM

Nitrate PM (January avg., 1996) CMAQ-2001 CMAQ-2002 CMAQ-Sept03 (January avg., 1996)

Anthropogenic SOA Biogenic SOA CMAQ- 2002 CMAQ- 2003 (July avg., 1996) 0.6 ug/m3 15 ug/m3 CMAQ- 2002 0.2 ug/m3 7 ug/m3 CMAQ- 2003 (July avg., 1996)

Ozone CMAQ-2002 CMAQ-2003 (July avg., 1996)

Sulfate PM CMAQ-2002 CMAQ-2003 (July avg., 1996)

Air Quality Modeling Applications at EPA/OAQPS Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain China Modeling Domain U.S. Modeling Domain 36 km eastern US domain Showed this plot before -- just to reorient. Western US - 36/12, ozone only, episodic (July 1996) National US - 36, ozone & PM, entire year of 1996 Eastern US - 36/12/4, ozone & PM, episodic (July 1995) 4 km domain 12 km western US domain 12 km domain 36 km western US domain 36 km Annual National US domain

Air Pollution Truly Has No National Boundaries

Dust Storms

Asian Dust Storm Event: April 2001 (NASA/TOMS) (4/7) (4/9) (4/11) (4/12) (4/13) (4/14)

ASIAN DUST REACHED WESTERN U.S. (April 1998) SF LA GOES Satellite Image PM10 West Coast (Courtesy of Prof. Husar, WUSL)

Transport of CO : March 2000 (NASA/MOPITT) (3/10) (3/12) (3/15) (3/13) (Byun and Uno, 2000)

Intercontinental Transport & Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants (ICAP): USEPA’s International Modeling Project Models-3/CMAQ “Trans-Pacific” modeling Domain

ICAP Emissions Data Preparation & Processing NOx Emissions (VOC) VOC (PAR) Emissions

U.S. emissions Canada emissions Mexico emissions

Asian emissions data (TRACE-P & ACE/Asia) LPSs & Volcano Ship lanes Energy/ Emission Regional Emis. Population Landcover Road network GIS Remote Sensing /etc. FC AI Precipitation Courtesy of Dr. Jung-Hun Woo, Univ. of Iowa

Large Point Industry Transportation Smaller Power Biomass Burning Sources Industry Transportation Smaller Power Biomass Burning Domestic Fossil Fuel Shipping Aviation FC AI

ICAP Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain Trans-Pacific Transport of Air Pollutants: PM

ICAP Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain Trans-Pacific Transport of Air Pollutants: PM

ICAP Trans-Atlantic Modeling Domain Trans-Atlatic Models-3/CMAQ Modeling Domain

ICAP Plan FY’04-’05 Proposed activities: Integrate satellite (MODIS, TOM, GOME, etc.) observations and surface-based & aircraft (ITCT, TRACE-P) data with model simulation results Continue intercontinental & regional modeling assessment for selected current & future policy-relevant emissions scenarios Develop & apply an integrated model with coupled meteorology and chemistry (e.g., MM5 & CMAQ) to study the impact of air pollution on regional climate Continue to support development of improved emission inventories and future emission scenarios Conduct a pilot study on integrated environmental health & climate assessment of air pollution over key emissions-growing regions such as Asia -- Toolkit can be used domestically & internationally --Leverage international resources -- leveraging example: creating internet-based APTI training courses using AID/World Bank funds

Air Quality Modeling Assessment Projects over Greater China Regions Beijing and Shanghai modeling studies being initiated 4-km Taiwan modeling study is on-going 12-km China National/regional modeling study to be completed in Oct. `2003 36-km

Air Quality Modeling over China : Ozone 12-km 36-km

Projected Air Quality over China (July 4-20, 2001, episodic average) 2008 (Business as usual) PM 2.5 (No change from 2001) 2008 (Growth Scenario) 2008 (Control Scenario) (Man-made emissions + 50%) (Man-made emissions -- 50%)

Air Quality Modeling over China : PM Sulfate PM Nitrate PM Organic PM

Air Quality Modeling over China & Taiwan : Model Nesting 36-km 12-km 4-km

Taiwan (Jan. 4-20, 2001, episode avg.) Nested Modeling at Different Grid Resolution: PM 2.5 4-km (non-nested) 36-km 12-km Taiwan (Jan. 4-20, 2001, episode avg.)

36/12/4km CMAQ: Sulfate PM (Episodic Average) Atlanta, Georgia (July 4-16, 1995)

36/12/4km CMAQ: Cloud Fraction Atlanta, Georgia (July 14, 1995), predicted by MM5

Air Pollution Control in 21st Century State/ Multi-Counties Federal/ Multi-State City /Town County International 1920 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 Present background is 20-40 ppb

Questions ??????

M3/CMAQ (12-km) Jan. 4-20, 2001 Mass: 121.4 ug/m3 Annual Average PM2.5 in Beijing (Model simulation) M3/CMAQ (12-km) Jan. 4-20, 2001 Mass: 121.4 ug/m3 PM2.5 in Beijing (Monitoring data) Annual Average for all sites (2000): Mass: 95.5 ug/m3 (Courtesy of Prof. Zhang, Beijing Univ., 2002)

Projected Air Quality over China (July 4-20, 2001, episodic max) 2008 (Business as usual) Ozone (No change from 2001) 2008 (Growth Scenario) 2008 (Control Scenario) (Man-made emissions +50%) (Man-made emissions -- 50%)

Air Quality Modeling over China : PM 2.5 12-km 36-km

Annual Continental U.S. CMAQ Modeling: O3 (1996 July Max in ppb) 56 149 99 62 134 76 132 139 137 107 126 119 131 215 127 Next series of plots are a small sample of some of the output from the annual CMAQ simulation. Overlay values from AIRS data Comment on: 1) clearly identify metric: maximum hourly surface O3 in July 1996 2) broad area of ozone in eastern U.S. 3) relative absence of ozone in CA 4) Pacific Northwest is actually accurate (Portland, Seattle) 5) correlation of high ozone w/ shoreline areas 6) 36km is certainly insufficient coarse for urban ozone assessments 144 113 194

(Nitrogen deposition, Lake Acidification) NOx-Related Air Quality Issues (NO3-, NH4+) PM (NOx + VOC + hv) --> Ozone NOx Acid Rain (NO3- deposition) Visibility (Fine PM) Water Quality (Nitrogen deposition, Lake Acidification)

SOx-Related Air Quality Issues (Fine PM) Visibility (SO42-, NH4+) PM SOx Acid Rain (SO42- deposition) Water Quality (Lake acidification)

TRANS-PACIFIC DUST TRANSPORT Grand Canyon Beijing, China April 7, 2001 April 14, 2001 Husar’s April 98 image from: http://capita.wustl.edu/Asia-FarEast/ TOMS April 02 images from: http://www.lakepowell.net/asiandust2.htm Grand Canyon haze photo from: http://www.lakepowell.net/asiandust.htm