THE 2000 HURRICANE SEASON Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN

NOAA/NESDIS HURRICANE ISAAC SEASON HIGHLIGHTS (1) Above average activity: 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes (avg=10/6/2.5), and one unnamed ST. All named storms occurred during August, September, and October. Three-year (98-00) total of 26 hurricanes ties all time record (49-51) for hurricane frequency. Six-year total of 81 named storms and 49 hurricanes is a record. Many weak systems (4 TD’s, plus 4 TS’s with winds of  45 kt). First operational subtropical cyclone since Four of the 15 systems had subtropical origins. Above average activity: 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes (avg=10/6/2.5), and one unnamed ST. All named storms occurred during August, September, and October. Three-year (98-00) total of 26 hurricanes ties all time record (49-51) for hurricane frequency. Six-year total of 81 named storms and 49 hurricanes is a record. Many weak systems (4 TD’s, plus 4 TS’s with winds of  45 kt). First operational subtropical cyclone since Four of the 15 systems had subtropical origins.

SEASON HIGHLIGHTS (2) No U.S. landfalling hurricanes (19th time in last 102 years) and 1990 also had 8 hurricanes with no U.S. landfalls. 49 deaths (5 in U.S.). U.S. casualties include three drownings from dangerous surf/waves from Hurricane Florence (~300 miles away) and one from Isaac. Minimal U.S. damage ($27M) due to tropical cyclones, but antecedent disturbance to T.S. Leslie combined with a stalled frontal zone to produce $950 M in flooding damage. No U.S. landfalling hurricanes (19th time in last 102 years) and 1990 also had 8 hurricanes with no U.S. landfalls. 49 deaths (5 in U.S.). U.S. casualties include three drownings from dangerous surf/waves from Hurricane Florence (~300 miles away) and one from Isaac. Minimal U.S. damage ($27M) due to tropical cyclones, but antecedent disturbance to T.S. Leslie combined with a stalled frontal zone to produce $950 M in flooding damage.

ALBERTO BERYL CHRIS DEBBY ERNESTO FLORENCE GORDON HELENE ISAAC JOYCE KEITH LESLIE MICHAEL NADINE MICHAEL UNNAMED HELENE ALBERTO

Third longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone on record. Spent one week looping in the central north Atlantic.

Disorganized system with multiple centers. One death in northeastern Mexico from flooding.

A minimal tropical storm cut down in the prime of life by wind shear.

See Chris...

Category 1 hurricane that clipped the extreme northeastern Caribbean. $0.5M damage in Puerto Rico. Posed a potential threat to south Florida but unexpectedly weakened. Category 1 hurricane that clipped the extreme northeastern Caribbean. $0.5M damage in Puerto Rico. Posed a potential threat to south Florida but unexpectedly weakened.

7 difficult forecasts compared to the actual track of Debby

COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE JUST PRIOR TO THE G-IV AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE MISSION

FORECAST GUIDANCE JUST AFTER G-IV MISSION-- NOTE THE LARGE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACKS

LATER FORECAST GUIDANCE AT 2PM EST, AUGUST 23, WITHOUT G-IV DROPSONDE DATA -- NOTE THAT TRACKS SHIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH

UKMET MODEL Courtesy Julian Heming, UKMO WITHOUT SONDES WITH SONDES

Category 1 hurricane of subtropical origins. Reached hurricane status three times. Three deaths from rip currents in North Carolina.

Landfall near Cedar Key, FL as a 55 kt tropical storm. $11M damage. 24 deaths, mainly in Guatemala.

Pinellas County FL 18 Sep 2000:Courtney Campbell Causeway (SR 60) Photos: Florida Division of Emergency Management Hurricane Gordon Storm Surge Flooding around Tampa Bay

Landfall near Ft. Walton Bch, FL, as a 35 kt tropical storm. One death from tornado in S. Carolina. ~$16M damage.

Category 4 hurricane. Affected portions of the British Isles as an extratropical storm. One drowning death off of Long Is.

T.D. THIRTEEN (ISAAC) FIRST DETECTED IN REMOTELY SENSED SATELLITE WIND DATA 230 a.m. EDT, Sep 21, 2000

Strongest hurricane of the season. Battered resort islands of Belize, causing 19 deaths (5 in Belize), $200M damage.

Corosal-Belize Highway 3 Oct 2000 REUTERS Hurricane Keith flood damage in Belize

Pan-American Highway, Nicaragua 3 Oct 2000REUTERS

Belize City 2 Oct 2000REUTERS Keith’s powerful Category 4 winds batter parts of Belize

Belize City 2 Oct 2000 REUTERS

Another difficult storm to forecast...

Computer forecast models from 8 am EDT, Oct. 2.

…fortunately Keith was a relatively small hurricane

SOUTH FLORIDA FLOODS CAUSED BY THE PRE-LESLIE DISTURBANCE -- OCTOBER 3

image provided by South Florida Water Management District Widespread Residential Flooding in Miami-Dade County, FL

image provided by South Florida Water Management District

NHC

Courtesy Colin McAdie (TPC), Peter Dodge (HRD) NEXRAD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals, 2-4 OCTOBER 2000

Precursor disturbance contributed to severe flooding in S. Florida that caused $950M damage and three indirect deaths. Began advisories as Subtropical Depression One.

Became extratropical just prior to reaching Newfoundland.

…a storm of no recognizable merit whatsoever...

…the Beven-cane of the century...

NOAA Seasonal Hurricane Forecast A 75% chance of above-average activity, due to reduced vertical wind shear and above-average SSTs. Typically at least 11 TS, 7 H, 3 MH. Overall activity is typically very high in active years. Caribbean islands and United States are at an increased risk of TS or H strikes (2-3 hurricane strikes each in active years). Yes. No. Not really. Yes. 20% above normal. Yes, sort of, for C.I., but no for U.S. "Our estimate of U.S. landfall by an intense hurricane did not prove correct, but landfall predictions don't work well in any individual year.” Bill Gray