Operational estuarine modeling: lessons learned from selected US and Portuguese estuaries Charles Seaton, Paul J. Turner, Gonçalo Jesus, Anabela Oliveira, André B. Fortunato and Antonio Baptista Oregon Health & Science University, Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil MotivationPreparation Estuaries are highly diverse, and modeling efforts need to be shaped to meet the conditions in each estuary. Operational modeling is driven by the specific needs of stakeholder interests in a particular location. The stakeholder interests need to be identified, and the modeling methods and results must be designed to answer the questions that stakeholders have. Direct interaction with local stakeholders is necessary to design operational estuarine modeling. While some modeling goals may be general, incorporating the specific needs of the local stakeholders is essential to successful operational modeling. A medium-sized (75 km^2), moderately urbanized lagoon in Portugal, with extensive unmodified wetlands, the main questions the WIFF forecast was designed to answer are …. The main stakeholders are … OperationSkill Assessment Visualization Applications Operational modeling requires selection and calibration of a particular numerical model, with model choice governed by a combination of local expertise and estuary conditions. It also requires: accurate bathymetry for both the estuary and the larger region; continuous model inputs including the regional ocean conditions (generally from another model), atmospheric conditions (modeled), tides (modeled), and river flows (observations or modeled) for relevant rivers. Challenges WIFF: Aveiro Lagoon Virtual Columbia River Lessons Model probing Risk analysis Model outputs are complicated 4-D (space and time) fields for multiple variables such as salinity, temperature, velocity, elevation, plus more exotic outputs like sediments or biology. These results need to be displayed in consistent way that is comprehensible and useful to multiple levels of users, from the modelers themselves to stakeholder agencies and interested citizens. Located on the 4 th largest river in North America, the 300 km^2 Columbia River estuary is moderately impacted by upriver industry and agriculture, and has been extensively diked and channelized for navigation. The dominant motivations for estuarine modeling in the Columbia River estuary are river navigation and salmon habitat. Major stakeholders include regional tribes, the Port of Portland, and state and Federal agencies. From regional… …to local scales Based on … SELFE is the numerical model used for the Aveiro Lagoon. Bathymetry is from … Ocean boundary conditions are from … Tides are from … Atmospheric conditions are from … River flows are from … Initial conditions: NRL NCOM (1999) or previous year Ocean boundary conditions: NRL NCOM ( ), HYCOM (2013-) Ocean SSH: Regional Tide Model (Myers) + SSH from NCOM or HYCOM Atmospheric: NCEP NARR Rivers: discharge and temperature from USGS and USACE for (B) Bonneville (W) Willamette (C) Cowlitz (L) Lewis Bathymetry: NOAA coastal bathymetry, estuary bathymetry from USACE surveys The quality of inputs to the models (both bathymetry and inputs) is critical to producing accurate results. In some cases, development of improved information (Columbia River bathymetry) or models (SELFE) may be necessary to produce good results. The complicated features of many estuaries, and the need to model across a large range of scales, means that unstructured grid models are particularly well suited to estuary modeling. Regional water levels Significant wave heights Local water levels “All models are wrong, but some models are useful.” In order to determine how useful model results are for answering stakeholder questions, it is necessary to determine how skilled the model is. Model skill will be different for different variables, and skill assessment is critically limited by the availability of good data. For specific uses, static images are not enough. Stakeholders and researchers may have specific ways that they want to interact with model output., or they may prefer to use model output in a different context or application than the modeler’s interfaces. Ocean b.c. Rivers Atmospheric C Nudging B W L Spills on demand Cross estuary salinity Timeseries comparisons Taylor diagrams Short description of WIFF skill assessment products and uses. Short description of VCR skill assessment products and uses. Map of world and Aveiro and Columbia locations goes here (like in PIRE proposal)

Operational estuarine modeling: lessons learned from selected US and Portuguese estuaries Charles Seaton, Paul J. Turner, Gonçalo Jesus, Anabela Oliveira, André B. Fortunato and Antonio Baptista Oregon Health & Science University, Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil PurposesConclusions Description of estuarine forecasting systems Global map showing location of Columbia R. and Aveiro Lagoon Operations Areas of interest, standard visualization me thods Aveiro Lagoon Model set-up Run environment Processing environemnt Image generation etc. Model set-up Run environment Processing environemnt Image generation etc. Skill assessment External access Interactive interfaces Skill assessment: From regional… Interactive interfaces Spills on demand Model probing Model animations Risk analysis Standard visualization methods Aknowledgements: Alberto Azevedo, João Gomes, João Rogeiro, Fátima Alves, Marta Rodrigues, Ricardo Costa, … …to local scales Regional water levels Significant wave heights Local water levels References: Boer, S. et al Development of an oil spill hazard scenarios database for risk assessment, J. Coastal Research, S.I. 70: Fortunato A.B. et al. (in review). Determination of extreme sea levels along the Iberian Atlantic coast, Ocean Engineering. Oliveira A. et al. (2014). An interactive WebGIS observatory platform for enhanced support of integrated coastal management. J. Coastal Research, S.I.70: Visualization A variety of standard products need to be made available through a web interface. Typical standard products include timeseries, transects, and map view animations. Composite products that combine map views with timeseries can be particularly powerful Challenge Operational estuary modeling is driven by stakeholder interests. Operational estuarine modeling requires cross- scale modeling of both an estuary of interest and the ocean region that influences it. This requires regional bathymetry, ocean and atmospheric inputs from other models. Skill assessment Model skill assessment is a critical component of operational modeling. What features of the model can be skill assessed depends entirely on the availability of real-time observational data. Lessons learned The specific needs and capabilities of the region strongly constrain the operational modeling system … WIFF: Aveiro Lagoon Description of the reason for having an operational model. Who are the stakeholders. Where is the Aveiro Lagoon. What is the source for inputs: ocean model, atmospheric model. Products