v To learn how coincidence and probability judgements influence perceptions of anomalous experience.

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Presentation transcript:

v To learn how coincidence and probability judgements influence perceptions of anomalous experience.

When two unrelated events correspond. There is no obvious relationship between the two But… a belief forms, creating a cognitive bias, that one causes the other.

Coincidences can lead to superstitious beliefs- Bjorn Borg would not shave when he had started a winning streak in a tennis tournament. He had won once when he hadn't shaved and these 2 phenomena were linked in his mind. This is called the psychology of contiguity.

The Research: Coincidence Zusne & Jones (1989): Ever though about someone 5 mins before you learn of their death? Spooky? Not really. In a country the size of USA, 3000 people would experience this by chance alone. So… what seems to be a paranormal coincidence can be explained by chance.

The Research: Coincidence Falk (1982; 1989): Extraordinary coincidences are singled out when they occur and given a significant status. This suggests a bias in cognitive processing. Peter Kay - Connie's Funeral - YouTube Furthermore, unlikely coincidences are considered more significant when they happen to us- egocentric bias.

However…. The flipside: Is there even such a thing as coincidence? Chopra (2003): All events can be related to unseen or prior causes/associations. This view is becoming accepted by scientists.

Something else to think about: Calculations of coincidences depend on memories- track must be kept of previous occurrences etc. Memory: Subject to error False memories? Biased? Wishful thinking? Suggestion?

Many people misjudge the probability of unrelated events occurring and think it’s paranormal. E.g. Thinking about a person and then they ring you Part of a dream coming true.

Probability Judgements: The Research Langer & Roth (1975): Early success at a task (E.g. picking lotto numbers) enhanced an illusion of control. Ps believe skill was involved and are biased in success recall- contributes to a belief in ESP.

Paulus (1988): Believers more likely to consider dreams as predictive- based on a dream event and future occurrence. Shows poor estimation of probabilities leads to paranormal beliefs. Probability Judgements: The Research

However…. Although many studies find a difference in probability estimation between believers and non-believers, not all do. Suggests that this area not fully understood. Could be because methodology is flawed

However… Research doesn’t identify where cognitive factors come from. Innate or learned? Banziger (1983): Ps who were sceptics on parapsychology course became more sceptical in their thinking. Therefore, cognitive styles are altered by experience, leading to a change in probability judgements.