Measuring Technical Progress: Evaluating Non-existent Scientific Instruments Center for Innovation, University of Maryland Jerald Hage, Director Jonathon Mote, Assistant Research Scientist Aleia Clark, Assistant Researcher The Hyperspectral Environmental Suite

Background  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) is planning to launch a new weather satellite in 2016 The Hyperspectral Environmental Suite of instruments (HES) has been proposed as part of this project…it does not yet exist  Continual rejection from Congress  Center for Innovation was asked to provide advice on how to justify the instrument

The case of the Hyperspectral Sounder (HES)  What is a hyperspectral sounder? GOES-R: Geostationary operational environmental satellite  This is what we use to collect atmospheric data that is used for weather prediction The HES is a new suite of instruments designed to improve atmospheric data collection  Hyperspectral data v. multispectral data

Advanced Sounder (3074 channels) GOES (18 channels) HES can image the entire hemisphere in one-sixth the time it takes for the current system. HES increases the number spectral bands to over 3,000 What is Hyperspectral Sounding?

Making a case for non-existent instruments  Congress demands data for the justification of new instruments such as the HES $700 million for HES GOES project already over $1 billion  How do you evaluate scientific instruments before they exist?

The need for a new approach  Not one, but two different sets of stakeholders with different interests 1. Executives at NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) – Internal divisions concerning merits of HES 2. Congress and OMB – Economic cost-benefit analysis indicate little economic benefit

Four recommendations 1. Build a justification for different goals for the HES 2. Provide justification for scientific community 3. Different justification for congress, avoiding economic arguments 4. Collect analogue data to support arguments

Reframing the Justification  Place HES in evolutionary context of improving weather prediction Present HES as next self-evident step in progress of weather prediction  Present HES as a step towards understanding global warming Co-opt those on both sides of the global warming debate by providing necessary data on carbon cycles

Reframing the Justification: The National Weather Service  NWS v. HES NWS believes they are doing a good job HES represents a threat  Present HES as fulfilling different needs Support v. replacement Avoids direct confrontation with NWS  Near/now-casting of extreme weather events Short term, rapid climate changes

Nowcasting: HES as a new prediction tool o February 2009 tornado outbreak in Oklahoma oStrong supercells emerged at an unexpected time of the year The nowcasting system predicted this 6 hours sooner than NWS forecasts.

Justification for NOAA  Connect HES to stated goals of strategic plan Goal of increasing tornado warning times is part of NOAA’s plan Emphasize HES capabilities to meet stated goal  Finer spatial resolution  Increased tornado warning time

Justification for Congress and OMB  Cost-benefit analyses lack benefits Costs of weather damage cannot be mitigated by forecasting but by new building codes  Focus on saving lives and avoiding injuries  Secondary economic argument costly failure to predict winter storms Example: Washington, DC. Closed for three days in Winter of 2000 due to unpredicted storm

Collecting Evidence  Where do you get the evidence? Use available hyperspectral data to supplement arguments AIRS: high-spectral resolution infrared instrument funded by NASA  Evidence from European hyperspectral efforts German EnMap satellite Also demonstrates how US has fallen behind

Thank you  For additional information or questions… Jerry Hage. Director, Center for Innovation  Jonathon Mote. Senior Researcher  Aleia Clark. Research Assistant 