Click to edit Master subtitle style SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 CLIMATE CHANGE, EARLY WARNING, ADVISORY SERVICES AND RELATED INITIATIVES PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE PRESENTATION BY: MR. MNIKELI NDABAMBI, GENERAL MANAGER: OPERATIONS FOR DR. LINDA MAKULENI, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, SAWS 05 JUNE 2012

SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 CONTENTS  Purpose of the presentation  Related Strategic Drivers and program  Forecasting  Early Warning  Advisory Services  Climate Change related initiatives  Conclusion 2 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012

PURPOSE OF PRESENTATION To brief the Portfolio Committee Members on SAWS’ programmes on Climate Change. 3 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012

NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE-WHITE PAPER In addressing NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE, WHITE PAPER-CHAPTER 4, identified the following as among Strategic Priorities:- Risk reduction and management Informed decision-making and planning Then CHAPTER 5 addresses adaptation where 4 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 Early Warning and Forecasting for Disaster Risk Reduction are to be addressed.

SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 SAWS STRATEGIC DRIVERS AND PROGRAMS RELATED TO EARLY WARNINGS AND CLIMATE CHANGE5 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 Safety of life and property Operational early warning system that encourages an integrated approach Provision of scientific information for adaptation and mitigation to climate change Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability on food sustainability, rural development and quality of life of South Africans. SAWS will build on its experience on Air Quality & the Global Atmosphere Watch, to play a crucial role. SAWS has also established seven Strategic Programmes the first being: Climate Change and Variability Programme Addressing and/or supporting national climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives;

SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 FORECASTING6 SAWS offers Weather forecasts to different stakeholders on daily basis to inform the decision making- Forecasting issued can be categorised into:  Nowcasting  Short and Medium Range  Long Range Forecasting SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012

1. Nowcasting (0-14 hours)7 SAWS offers weather forecasts and advices on weather phenomena that occurs on time scales from 0-24 hours e.g. severe thunderstorms, hail, lightning, tornadoes etc. for safety of life and reduced damage to property.. Utilize remote sensing infrastructure : a) Weather Radar b) Satellite c) Lightning Detection Network Nowcasting (0-14 hours) SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012

8 Also utilizing different models in an ensemble system to obtain forecasts on the short and medium term. Focus on temperature and rainfall forecasts. Short and Medium Range (1 – 3 days) + (4 – 10 days)

9 SAWS also offers weather forecasts on time scales varying as follows: a) 11 – 30 days (Extended range) b) 1 – 3 months (Seasonal) c) Longer time scales – (Annual, Decadal, Climate- in development phase) Utilize Global Circulation Models (GCM), Ocean –Atmosphere-Land Coupled models. Collaborate with partnering institutions e.g. CSIR Forecast for 2012 Long Range Forecast ( 11 days - 6 months) SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012

The white paper points to a need to EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS) 10 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 Use early warning systems to give timely warnings of adverse weather…..as part of adaptation to Climate Change and variability impact, It also encourages investment in education and awareness programmes

SWWS as an component of the MHEWS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS) 11 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012

 Based on international best practices (WMO & international Weather Services as benchmark) Introduced 3 color-coded alert categories: Advisory / Watch / Warning relating to specific hazard thresholds and lead-times  Standardized content of message  Collaborate with NDMC to improve warning dissemination Advisory: Be aware Watch: Be prepared Warning Take action Enhancement of the Early Warning Service 1212 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012

Increasing Urgency through Alert Levels 1313 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 No AlertAdvisoryWatchWarning Be Aware!Be Prepared! Take Action! No hazardous weather expected in next few days Early warning of potential hazardous weather Weather conditions are likely to deteriorate to hazardous levels Hazard is already occurring somewhere or is about to occur with a very high confidence 2 to 6 days period 1 to 3 day period Next 24 hours, 3 hrs for FF, TS

SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 Entails investigating the future patterns of change in Southern Africa's climate (temperature, rainfall, storms, extreme events, etc) over the next decades up to 2100; In collaboration with relevant stakeholders (e.g. other research institutions) impacts on South Africa's climate-sensitive sectors are identified and possible intervention measures recommended to relevant authorities. Climate change and variability research 1414

15 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 SAWS is active on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 to investigate how the intensity and frequency of climate extremes such as droughts, floods coastal storms are expected to respond to climate change. Future plans: Develop a climate change impact modeling capability to support development of applications that will inform adaptation efforts and strategies on bi-annual to decadal times scales. Climate change and variability research

SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012 SAWS is given a national role of monitoring and forecasting air quality The air quality modelling and forecasting group is developing the capacity to produce forecasts of national ambient air quality for a period of hours Pollutants include; particulate matter less than 10µm, sulphur dioxide and tropospheric ozone Initially use the UK Met Office NAMEIII model, which is currently in use in the UK Air Quality Modelling and Forecasting

 SAWS Embarked on road shows initiatives to raise severe weather awareness among communities as part of adaptation strategy (As reflected in the Climate Change white Paper).  Developed new warning systems i.e.  South African Flash flood Guidance system(SAFFG),  Southern Africa Regional Flash Flood Guidance system (SARFFG)  Storm surge warning system,  National Fire Danger Rating System, for veld and forest fire warnings (with DAFF),  Tsunami warning dissemination system (with NDMC and CGS)  Community Rainfall Station  Expansion of SWFDP into SADC region 17 Initiatives SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012

 SAWS managed to develop a sophisticated hazard monitoring system, comparing very well with international best practices  Relationships between forecasters and disaster management structures are developing very strongly – more so in some districts than others  Effective dissemination of warnings to all levels of society are still a problem and need significant support and participation with other structures, including disaster management, Government DEPTs, media and other role players  Public awareness around the EWS and response to warnings and hazards need significant effort from all involved Successes and Challenges 1818 SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012

THANK YOU SAWS_PARL/CT /06/2012