Mediated Modelling Integrating the four aspects of well-being in Auckland to support Spatial Planning

Sustainable Pathways 2 Project Goal: to provide synergistic tools to support integrated, decision making in Auckland and Wellington. Outputs: 1.A system dynamics model that can be used by a wide range of stakeholders 2.A spatial decision support system operated by council staff Both models allow the simulation of development pathways and visualisation of future change.

The System Dynamics Model This model was developed using mediated modelling and therefore reflects the views of the stakeholders involved It integrates the four aspects of well-being (cultural, social, economic and environmental) The feedback loops and delays can be described using a Causal Loop Diagram as follows:

The Story of the Auckland Region in a Causal Loop Diagram

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth Under the anticipated population growth scenarios about 60,000 new students will need education. When more children are educated, they have more chance of being employed resulting in more economic activity and therefore a more attractive region. The latter will foster more migration to the region resulting in a reinforcing feedback loop. Education Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding + +

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth Education also improves health which in turn improves employment, the regional economy and the attractiveness of the region. Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth More people employed and an attractive regional economy increases the public funds (such as taxes due to more inhabitants) that can be derived from this economy. More funds can e.g. Be spend on the restoration of natural capital. However, it takes time to restore natural capital and derive ecosystem service benefits! Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth The next loop in this diagram is a balancing loop as population growth puts pressure on the health care system (e.g. more people, as a fraction of a growing population, require health care services. How well the healthcare services meet the demand for healthcare services, in turn impacts employment and the regional economy. If demand is higher than supply a negative impact on the attractiveness of the region emerges through increased unemployment affecting migration flows lowering the population. Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital B1 Population Growth sets pressure on Health System

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth A second balancing loop is related to population growth negatively affecting natural capital though urbanisation. Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital B1 Population Growth sets pressure on Health System B2 Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital B1 Population Growth sets pressure on Health System B2 Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital Social (e.g., Housing crowding) + - B3 Crowding impacts education Population density is currently chosen as a proxy for deprivation and poverty influencing “housing”. This impacts ethnic groups differently and thereby impacts on Education (and Health).

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth Population growth also demands more transport. Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital Transport R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital B1 Population Growth sets pressure on Health System B2 Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital Social (e.g., Housing crowding) + - B3 Crowding impacts education

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth Natural Capital affects active mode in transport, which impacts on Health, i.e. Reducing the fraction of young and elderly requiring health care services. Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital Transport R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital B1 Population Growth sets pressure on Health System B2 Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital Social (e.g., Housing crowding) + - B3 Crowding impacts education

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth Transport impacts health through active mode (and emissions). Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital Transport ? R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital B1 Population Growth sets pressure on Health System B2 Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital Social (e.g., Housing crowding) + - B3 Crowding impacts education

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth External factors (e.g., climate change) impact population growth. Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital Transport External Factors (e.g., climate change) ? R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital B1 Population Growth sets pressure on Health System B2 Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital Social (e.g., Housing crowding) + - B3 Crowding impacts education

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Cultural Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital Transport External Factors (e.g., climate change) ? ? R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital B1 Population Growth sets pressure on Health System B2 Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital Reminder to link the “Cultural sector” into this causal loop diagram - Social (e.g., Housing crowding) + - B3 Crowding impacts education

Population & cultural diversity + R1 Education Drives Growth Education health Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Cultural Governance or policies solutions Natural Capital Transport External Factors (e.g., climate change) ? ? R2 Education Improves Health which Drives Growth R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital B1 Population Growth sets pressure on Health System B2 Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital Social (e.g., Housing crowding) + - B3 Crowding impacts education THE END!

Conclusions Interlinkages and time lags are important to future outcomes. The Causal Loop Diagram is one way to visualise the important linkages and time lags built into the system dynamics model. The Story underlying the Causal Loop Diagram allows stakeholders to communicate the interlinkages and time lags to others.