Your Logo Here Do You Know Your Odds? Presented by: Your Name Here

Your Logo Here Life’s a gamble…but Your finances no longer need to be You can now have confidence in meeting your lifetime goals Ironically, by using probability analysis (a.k.a. Monte Carlo Simulation)

Your Logo Here I Already Have A Plan… Do you know your chances of it succeeding? A plan is only as good as the assumptions within it Most plans are based on many poor assumptions

Your Logo Here For Example… If you could choose from any of the following three investments, which would you select? Investment10 YearGrowth ChoiceReturnof $100 #111.6%$299 #211.6%$299 #311.6%$299

Your Logo Here You would think they would all be the same…but You may want to understand the path you took to achieve the ending goal THEY ALL TIED! Bull Market Bear Market Bull Market

Your Logo Here If they all end up with the same ending value, does it make any difference? It Depends on YOUR Plan

Your Logo Here Instead of a single $100 investment, test the same choices for different investors… What if I were saving $10,000 a year? Would they produce the same result?

Your Logo Here One choice may produce over TWICE the amount of money Same returns... BIG Difference in ending results #2 WINS! Bull Market Bear Market Bull Market

Your Logo Here How about a different investor? If I had $100,000 and I needed $15,000 a year in addition to Social Security, would it last 10 years?

Your Logo Here You would have run out of money with #2! Same returns... BIG Difference in ending results #1 WINS! Bear Market Bull Market

Your Logo Here The ending results of our three choices depend on YOUR plan… They all produced 11.6% a year over the 10 year period!

Your Logo Here How could that be??? It is really quite simple if you think about it

Your Logo Here WHEN you receive a return is far more important than your average return Ideally, you would get your high returns when you had a lot of money and your bad returns when you have very little A 30% gain on $20,000 is $6,000, on $10,000 it is only $3,000 A 10% loss on $20,000 is -$2,000, on $10,000 it is only -$1,000

Your Logo Here If you are making no contributions or withdrawals the results are the same The compound return of a 30% gain and 10% loss is 8.17%

Your Logo Here If I’m contributing $10,000 a year, there is a big difference between assuming the average and changing the order of the actual returns …(Timing of Bull & Bear Markets)

Your Logo Here The reverse is true if you are withdrawing $10,000

Your Logo Here This is how Monte Carlo analysis can help you understand your odds Most plans assume you will achieve the AVERAGE return each year and IGNORE Bull & Bear markets. With probability analysis, we project many results including both Bull & Bear Markets.

Your Logo Here Then, we rank your projections based on the potential impact of the timing of Bull & Bear markets during the life of your plan

Your Logo Here Then, we rank your projections based on the potential impact of the timing of Bull & Bear markets during the life of your plan Notice how the timing of ’73 & ’74 bear market had more impact than the return achieved over the life of the plan Plan ending values were much greater than $0 when the ’73-’74 bear market occurred toward the end of the plan even though the overall return was low

Your Logo Here Then, we rank your projections based on the potential impact of the timing of Bull & Bear markets during the life of your plan Conversely, when the ’73 & ’74 Bear market was in the middle of the plan (during peak wealth accumulation!) the plan ran out of money even though the overall returns were MUCH higher.

Your Logo Here Of course, history is limited so we may want to simulate markets that have yet to occur We can randomly generate Bull & Bear markets using “Monte Carlo” analysis to simulate new market environments and see the chances of meeting objectives

Your Logo Here By running these tests we can then forecast your “odds” of success Having never done this analysis, your current odds of success may not be very good

Your Logo Here But, while most advisors simply increase the return & risk… Adjusting your asset allocation may not be the best choice in meeting your objectives… Growth Allocation Aggressive Growth Allocation

Your Logo Here Sometimes less risk is better… We can customize your plan to meet your goals without necessarily increasing risk Aggressive Growth Allocation “Customized” Plan with Growth Allocation Growth Allocation

Your Logo Here That’s only the beginning of our unique services… Most financial plans are updated only once every year or two… We constantly monitor your odds of success

Your Logo Here What have we learned? Bull & Bear markets will occur and planning for them is important Your average return has little to do with your results Increasing return and risk can LOWER your ODDS of success relative to a customized plan

Your Logo Here Achieving your goals… A Checklist of Advisor Services Service:Most AdvisorsOur Service Define Goals   Set Asset Allocation   Search for High Returns   Monitor Performance   “Audit” Plan Probability?  Customize Plan for Odds?  Monitor Changing Goals?  Monitor Odds of Success? 

Your Logo Here Achieving your goals… A Checklist of Advisor Services Service:Most AdvisorsOur Service Define Goals   Set Asset Allocation   Search for High Returns   Monitor Performance   “Audit” Plan Probability?  Customize Plan for Odds?  Monitor Changing Goals?  Monitor Odds of Success?  Services focused on returns

Your Logo Here Achieving your goals… A Checklist of Advisor Services Service:Most AdvisorsOur Service Define Goals   Set Asset Allocation   Search for High Returns   Monitor Performance   “Audit” Plan Probability?  Customize Plan for Odds?  Monitor Changing Goals?  Monitor Odds of Success?  Services focused on maximizing the likelihood of MEETING YOUR GOALS

Your Logo Here Before you ask questions…a question for you: Which would you prefer? #1 - Beating the market by 2.00% a year and running out of money #2 - Under-performing the market and meeting all of your lifetime financial goals

Your Logo Here If you care about meeting your goals… Contact us: Your contact information