Planning Categories Traditional LAPS Analysis LAPS Analysis (Traditional / STMAS) LAPS Forecast / WRF OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Assimilation of radar data - research plan
Advertisements

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Dynamic Balance of Cloud Vertical Velcoty
LAPS Analysis & Software by Steve Albers. 2 Basic Solution LAPS coupled with MM5 NWP model Use diabatic initialization (“hot start”) Utilize parallel.
High-Resolution Land Use Data in WPS/WRF for Urban Regions
Notes by Ligia Bernardet Recommendations from breakout group 2 Session 2 (Thu, 10/25/2012) Our group.
Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS)
Rapid Refresh and RTMA. RUC: AKA-Rapid Refresh A major issue is how to assimilate and use the rapidly increasing array of off-time or continuous observations.
The Climate Prediction Center Rainfall Estimation Algorithm Version 2 Tim Love -- RSIS/CPC.
Rapid Update Cycle Model William Sachman and Steven Earle ESC452 - Spring 2006.
This is the footer Running WRF on HECToR Ralph Burton, NCAS (Leeds) Alan Gadian, NCAS (Leeds) With thanks to Paul Connolly, Hector.
Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.
Hongli Jiang, Yuanfu Xie, Steve Albers, Zoltan Toth
NextGen FAB Progress and Plans Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov, Zoltan Toth, Scott Gregory, Kirk Holub, Yuanfu Xie, Paula McCaslin NOAA/ESRL/GSD Forecast.
Applied Meteorology Unit 1 An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to Initialize WRF in the NWS Environmental Modeling System 31.
Development of WRF-CMAQ Interface Processor (WCIP)
All-sky imagery: Observations and Simulations with the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Steve Albers 1,2, Kirk Holub 1, Hongli Jiang 1,2, Yuanfu.
November 1, 2013 Bart Brashers, ENVIRON Jared Heath Bowden, UNC 3SAQS WRF Modeling Recommendations.
Verification Summit AMB verification: rapid feedback to guide model development decisions Patrick Hofmann, Bill Moninger, Steve Weygandt, Curtis Alexander,
Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System A sequential variational approach Yuanfu Xie, Steven Koch Steve Albers and Huiling Yuan Global Systems Division.
Verification in NCEP/HPC Using VSDB-fvs Keith F. Brill November 2007.
By John Metz Warning Coordination Meteorologist WFO Corpus Christi.
Modernization of LAPS From LAPS to VLAPS FAB Data Assimilation Thrust Area.
Space-Time Mesoscale Analysis System A sequential 3DVAR approach Yuanfu Xie, Steve Koch John McGinley and Steve Albers Global Systems Division Earth System.
OUTLINE Current state of Ensemble MOS
WINDSOR TORNADO STUDY - STMAS (updated 9/16/2009 by Huiling Yuan and Yuanfu Xie)
Requirements from KENDA on the verification NetCDF feedback files: -produced by analysis system (LETKF) and ‘stat’ utility ((to.
Operational Issues from NCDC Perspective Steve Del Greco, Brian Nelson, Dongsoo Kim NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC Dongjun Seo – NOAA/NWS/OHD 1 st Q2 Workshop Archive,
Soil moisture generation at ECMWF Gisela Seuffert and Pedro Viterbo European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ELDAS Interim Data Co-ordination.
STMAS runs FAA: surface analysis, CONUS runs: MIT and backup; 5-minute ASOS runs: w-asos/n-asos (OSE); CWB: CWB surface reanalysis; CWB real time full.
P1.85 DEVELOPMENT OF SIMULATED GOES PRODUCTS FOR GFS AND NAM Hui-Ya Chuang and Brad Ferrier Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Washington DC Introduction.
LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011.
From LAPS to VLAPS multiscale hot-start analysis NOAA ESRL/GSD/FAB Y. Xie, S. Albers, H. Jiang, D. Birkenheuer, J. Peng, H. Wang, and Z. toth Global Systems.
MCS Introduction Where? Observed reflectivity at 3km from
LAPS WORKSHOP SUMMARY Oct , ESRL, Boulder, CO.
LAPS Data Ingest 1 Steve Albers 1, Yuanfu Xie Global Systems Division NOAA/OAR/ESRL 1 CIRA at GSD Acknowledgements: FAB 2 nd LAPS User Workshop, 25 October.
1985 Hurricane Elenna taken from the Space Shuttle Hurricane/Typhoon Data Assimilation using Space-Time Multi-scale Analysis System (STMAS) Koch S., Y.
Data Assimilation for High Impact Weather Forecast Yuanfu Xie NOAA/OAR/ESRL OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch.
The LAPS Cloud Analysis: Validation with All-Sky Imagery and Development of a Variational Cloud Assimilation Steve Albers 1,2, Kirk Holub 1, Hongli Jiang.
Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Technology Transfer NOAA – Earth System Research Laboratory Steve Albers, Brent Shaw, and Ed Szoke LAPS Analyses.
August 6, 2001Presented to MIT/LL The LAPS “hot start” Initializing mesoscale forecast models with active cloud and precipitation processes Paul Schultz.
Rapid Update Cycle-RUC. RUC A major issue is how to assimilate and use the rapidly increasing array of offtime or continuous observations (not a 00.
The Fusion of Radar Data and Satellite Imagery With Other Information in the LAPS Analyses Steve Albers August 10, 2010.
CWB Midterm Review 2011 Forecast Applications Branch NOAA ESRL/GSD.
Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Technology Transfer NOAA – Earth System Research Laboratory Steve Albers, Brent Shaw, and Ed Szoke LAPS Analyses.
November 21 st 2002 Summer 2009 WRFDA Tutorial WRF-Var System Overview Xin Zhang, Yong-Run Guo, Syed R-H Rizvi, and Michael Duda.
Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Purpose/HistoryDesign Implementation Details Dan Birkenheuer Forecast Systems Lab Boulder, CO
All-Sky Visualization Using the the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Steve Albers 1,2, Yuanfu Xie 1, Vern Raben 3, Zoltan Toth 1, Kirk Holub.
15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Hot-Start with RSA Applications by Steve Albers.
Satellite Data as used in the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Steve Albers May 13, 2008.
Slides for NWS/SR meeting John, Two of the graphics have specific background color schemes, the rest will inherit whatever scheme you choose for the master.
WINDSOR TORNADO STUDY - STMAS (updated 10/21/2009 by Huiling Yuan and Yuanfu Xie)
Intelligent Use of LAPS • By • Ed Szoke • 16 May 2001.
Breakout Session 3: Analysis Strategies Charge(s): –Identify and evaluate the current capabilities to develop AORs –Recommendations on overcoming current.
Software Development LAPS Workshop Oct 25-27, 2010 More info (including Forum) at: OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast.
STMAS/LAPS for Convective Weather Analysis and Short-range Forecast
Using RTMA Analysis to Substitute for Missing Airport Observations
NWS Alaska Region, GSD, with input from AWC
Rapid Update Cycle-RUC
GSD Satellite Overview
All-Sky Visualization Using the
LAPS / STMAS Niche Highly Portable System, Easy to Use – Many Collaborators/users World Wide Federal/State Gov’t, International, Academia, Private Sector.
Yuanfu Xie, Steve Albers, Hongli Jiang Paul Schultz and ZoltanToth
The Fusion of Radar Data and Satellite Imagery With Other Information in the LAPS Analyses Steve Albers April 15, 2002.
Winter storm forecast at 1-12 h range
Rapid Update Cycle-RUC Rapid Refresh-RR High Resolution Rapid Refresh-HRRR RTMA.
Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS)
WMO NWP Wokshop: Blending Breakout
Lightning NextGen Workshop
Start Hot-Start Section
Presentation transcript:

Planning Categories Traditional LAPS Analysis LAPS Analysis (Traditional / STMAS) LAPS Forecast / WRF OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch Updated 9/5/2010

Traditional Analysis Plans - 1 Gauge Radar Blended Analysis (Steve) – Requested by FMI, Ed Tollerud – Domain wide radar/gauge bias option – Spatially varying bias option – Compare to NCEP (CPC and/or Stage IV), Steve Mullen techniques Split off Cloud type from Precip Type? (Steve, Dan) – or calculate stability in the humidity analysis Add GOES 13 capability in LVD code Adrianne, Dan, Steve – Add comments about present GOES13 workaround in LVD and humidity namelists (Steve, Dan) OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

Traditional Analysis Plans - 2 AWIPS / NWS GPS support (Dan, Kirk) – NOAAPORT netCDF format (no longer available) – now contained in MADIS mesonet surface data – Read MADIS mesonet via Yuanfu’s (src/lib) routine and switch the ‘src/humid’ code to point to this more generic routine GLAPS – add GPS and polar orbiting satellites in comparison run? (Kirk/Seth) – improve humidity efficiency? (Dan) Runs in 10 minutes for GLAPS Switch build scripts from ‘toro’ to ‘pinky’ (Steve,Scott) OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

Analysis software plans - 1 CRTM development – Install library on ‘pinky’ (/usr/nfs/lapb/builds or /usr/local) Sigma-P code in LGA & STMAS (Steve, Yuanfu) Hook up to sub-kilometer terrain data (Steve, Paula, Adrianne) – Read topo-grabber tile output with ‘gridgen_model’ (GGM) software – GGM currently used in LAPS/STMAS localization to reproject USGS ‘topo_30s’ tiles and other static data onto domain map projection – Writes out static file in netCDF format – Combine 1 sec terrain, land use with other static data (e.g. albedo, soil type, green fraction) – GGM software does post processing (land/water fraction, sub-grid roughness, etc.) GPU tests on Mac Machines with NVIDIA cards (or Titan?) OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

Analysis software plans - 2 AWIPS wish list (see – Example is NST parameter (Ed Szoke, Steve) Improve LGA efficiency (Steve, Paula) – Do calculations/subroutine calls with 2D arrays (e.g. wind rotation) – Read GRIB NAV data only once – Read GRIB NAV data without reading the whole file – Eliminate redundant lgb file processing – Try bilinear interpolation for 3D fields projected to the sfc OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

Analysis software plans - 3 Incorporate cloud/radar related forward models that mimics what LAPS does into STMAS, then GSI (CRTM and other techniques) (Steve, Yuanfu, Paul, Dan, Tomoko) – Radar reflectivity / microphysics – METAR cloud observations – Pilot reports of cloud layers (and maybe icing) – Constraint between clouds/reflectivity and omega for hot-start (weak or strong depending on model initialization time tendencies) – Visible satellite (via CRTM) – SFMR (Step Frequency Microwave Radiometer) – Airborne radar (velocity and reflectivity) Also moisture related forward models such as GPS total delay OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

Analysis software plans - 4 NNEW access – start with model first guess (helpful when using HRRR as background for small rapid update domains) – also consider satellite (present weak link?) – recent thread (Dan, Paul, Kirk) Parallelize slower code sections (MPI, SMS, GPUs) – LAPS wind analysis (maybe temp/sfc) (Steve, Jacques) – Model first guess interpolation (LGA)? – STMAS minimization routine Clean up Linux compiler Warnings in library C code (Linda,Dan)? XML for scheduling on JET? (Steve) Manage improved Web Forum (Steve) Improved verification OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

Analysis software plans - 5 Quality control of surface obs (temporal checks) – Read MADIS statistics from separate files for more detailed info? Allows improvement over thresholds used for statistical spatial consistency check – Use internal LAPS history statistics to do MADIS-like QC checks (Steve) Useful at CWB as they are independent of MADIS We could implement our own “stuck-sensor” check New radar interface – Archive-II to Volume netCDF files via standard UNIDATA Java interface – Update existing remap code to read volume files (vs. tilt files) OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

LAPS / WRF software plans - 1 Improve initialization / hot-start (match between analysis and zero hour forecast) – Discrepancies noticed in Windsor and HMT runs – WRF now installed on FAB machine for testing / debugging Synthetic Forecast Satellite Images – a package that can be run in real-time – helps visualize and compare model forecasts – CRTM (leading contender at present) – Isidora’s work with Louis Grasso – Bob Rabin OLR OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

LAPS / WRF software Plans - 2 Reliability of forecast products – ITS can monitor end-to-end of run via web product continuity – decide on domains to be monitored (currently ROC 5km/DWR/HMT) Increase grid resolution of ROC operational domain to ~3km? – in support of nowcasting and forecast comparisons – to address related Doppler radial velocity data timing constraint improve radar “thinning” 1km 15-min ROC subset (400x500km) running on WJET using MPI turn radial velocity off for now? – Balance package parallelization may also be needed for larger 1km 15-min domain OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

General Thoughts Priorities may change as new requests & ideas continually arise Ideas and volunteers are both beneficial Continue to get feedback from our users – as well as plan for the upcoming workshop – New forum almost ready – Advertise workshop to NWS forecasters? Regional AWIPS focal points awipsinfo list Nearby WFOs OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

The End Questions? – Answers? OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch