Working abroad – the patterns of migration flows and remittances across countries Anne Harrison, Tolani Britton and Annika Swanson

Round Table on Sustainable Development Ministerial level meetings directed to finding means to implement goals agreed internationally to further sustainable development globally Focus on the impacts of OECD countries on countries in the rest of the world

Sustaining whose development? Presented to a meeting of the Round Table in November 2003 Presented nine data sets Five use data concerning international flows –Services –FDI –Debt –Remittances

Migrants and remittances Part of the social aspect of sustainable development Highly topical, not fully understood, not always well represented Can an examination of the data help understanding and representation? Doha mode 4

Country coverage All 30 OECD countries 27 large non-OECD countries 85% of population, 97% of GDP Plus 17 regional “other” groups covering the remaining countries

Goal Take IMF data on remittances and estimate the match between country of origin and destination Initially work with data for 2000 only Preliminary updates to 2003

First task – pattern of migrants Have information on number of migrants in each country, no comprehensive information on number of nationals abroad and the countries where are Set about building a matrix of stock of migrants for the world for 2000

Problems Nationality, citizenship, place of birth Refugees Length of stay Worker or family member Links to home country Skill level Year data available

Results Millions % From OECD ROWTotal To OECD ROW Total

Nationals abroad (mn) Russia 10.2 Mexico 7.9 India 7.2 Ukraine 4.7 Philippines 4.1 UK 3.4 Bangladesh 3.3 Italy 3.0 Turkey 2.8 Indonesia 2.4 Nigeria 2.1 Portugal 1.7 Thailand 1.6 Germany 1.5

Remittances Add workers’ remittances and compensation of employees Credits = Debits = Philippines Ignore migrants transfers

Conceptual problems Not all migrants send transfers Not all remittances come from migrants –Some may be “ex-migrants” –Some may be new relatives eg marriage –Some may be non-relatives eg adopt a child Special problem of border workers

Data probelms Even OECD countries have poor data Often have only compensation of employees or workers’ remittances but not both - are they merged or is one missing Ambiguity about coverage of flows through informal channels

Remittances per migrant Estimate missing countries – Nigeria, Qatar, UAE, Malaysia, Singapore, Canada Made estimtes for missing data - not for underrecording Annex table 6 Outflow per migrant (col 4)broadly consistent across countries

Border workers Credits France 7.9 Belgium/Lux 3.7 Germany 3.4 Italy 1.5 Total 19.4 Debits International orgs 6.5 Switzerland 5.6 Germany 4.2 Belgium/Lux 2.9 Italy 2.0 Total 24.1

Simple minded model Assume average remittance sent by all migrants (only) in a given country No allowance for nationality, skill, family circumstance, length of time away Indian waiter in UK sends as much as Portuguese waiter Indian waiter in UK sends more than Indian waiter in Africa

Receipts per national abroad Annex table 6 col 6, col 9 Again reasonably consistent across countries at similar levels of development and with IMF data

Geographical groupings Africa Asia Europe Latin America and Caribbean North America Oceania Total Border workers in Europe Total

Impact on GDP Annex table 6 cols 7 and 10 Largest impact –Philippines –Bangladesh For most countries, impact one or two percent Only very small countries have very high impacts

Perception Remittances come from OECD countries

Data -$bn 2000 Int orgs6.5France3.8 USA26.8Malaysia3.8 Saudi Arabia15.4Belgium/Lux3.3 Other western Asia 14.1Japan2.5 Germany7.4Italy2.0 Switzerland7.3Spain1.7

Perception Most remittances go to the third world

Data - $bn 2000 India9.2Germany3.4 France7.9Portugal3.4 Mexico7.6Egypt2.9 Philippines6.2USA2.4 Turkey4.6Morocco2.2 Spain3.8Bangladesh2.0 Belgium/Lux3.7

Results $Billions % To OECDROWTotal From OECD ROW Total

Update Flows to 2003 Review migration matrix Main improvements to come from better data

Data needs Compensation employees and workers’ remittances problematic –Regular commuters (border workers) –Irregular working visitors (seasonal and casual workers from abroad) –Long -term migrant workers

Data needs (cont) Seek bilateral data from key providers and recipients of flows Add estimates of informal flows Match inflows and outflows