Technology Transfer Center The Keys to California's Future USDA Rural Development California Ken Dozier NASA Far West RTTC 8/25/2005

Technology Transfer Center Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric The Future “When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”

Technology Transfer Center Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency Velocity “ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago”

Technology Transfer Center TruthKnowledgeBelief Universal No Debate Effect Social Converge on debate Cause Personal Diverge on debate Cause 10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85) What is Knowledge ?

Technology Transfer Center “where... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons” - Popular Mechanics, 1949 “I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995 “This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” - Western Union, Internal memo, 1876 “The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” - Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 The Future Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001

Technology Transfer Center Developers Drivers Gates “Microsoft”Xerox Jobs “Apple” Xerox Clark “SGI” E&S, Stanford Clark “Netscape”University of Illinois The Non-Linear

Technology Transfer Center Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International 3.Finland 4.Luxembourg 5.Netherlands 6.Hong Kong 7.Ireland 8.Sweden 9.Canada 10.Switzerland Global Competition 1. 2.

Technology Transfer Center Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond

Technology Transfer Center Industry Clusters –“Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth. Industry Cluster Electronic Key Export Oriented Firms Key Supplier Oriented Firms Key Economic Infrastructure Providers Consumer Electronic Assembly Computer Hardware Assembly Tool, Die & Machinery Office & Production Supply Specialized Component Supply Education & Training Institutions Physical Infrastructur e Providers Financial and Regulatory Institutions (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

Technology Transfer Center ½ Fortune 500 Companies Gone (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

Technology Transfer Center (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995) Industry Clusters

Technology Transfer Center Motion PicturesAviation Electronics Defense Aviation Automobile Manufacturing Food Processing Agriculture Theme Parks Motion Pictures Television Computer Peripherals Defense Instruments Commercial Aviation Metal Products General Manufacturing Information Processing Defense Aerospace Theme Parks/ Tourism Visual Media Production Professional Services Multimedia Technology Engineering Services Technology-Based Manufacturing General Manufacturing Information Processing Business Services The Evolution of Industry (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

Technology Transfer Center EZ and Incubator Spatial Distribution

Technology Transfer Center 6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce Demassification Denationalization Despacialization Disintermediation Disaggregation Decentralization Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild

Technology Transfer Center 1 st Perspective Knowledge is a New Kind of Asset –The foundation of industrialized economy is shifting from natural resources to intellectual assets (Hansen 99) (Davis 98) –Knowledge assets are viewed as factors of production that may be more important than traditional resources of capital, labor and land. (Davis 98) –Converging technologies and rapid innovations can transform markets Overnight. Administrative systems no longer provide the underpinnings of value creation. (Teece 98) –Reward goes to those who are good a sensing and seizing opportunities. Dynamic capabilities are most likely to be resident in firms that are highly entrepreneurial. (Teece 98)

Technology Transfer Center 2nd Perspective Entrepreneurship Super Normal Wealth Creator –Business Environments Have Become Hypercompetitive because of the High Magnitude and Velocity of Interfirm Rivalries (D’Aveni, 94) –Innovations in Products, Services, Business Processes, and Organizational Designs are Creating Dramatic Discontinuities in Product- Market Spaces and Disrupting the Traditional Approaches to Competitive Strategies and Business Conduct (Christensen, 97) –In the Short Run, Entrepreneurial Firms Reaps Supernormal Returns (Create Wealth) as Established Incumbents and Rivals Seek to Understand the Competitive Disruptions in their Market Space.(Christensen 97) –Thus Competition Occurs in the Form of a Series of Market Disruption Moves by New Entrants or Entrepreneurial Firms and Efforts by Incumbents and Rivals to Shape Their Response Actions (Young et al 96)

Technology Transfer Center 3rd Perspective Entrepreneurial Firms Represent a New Online Community Network computing, supported by advanced communications infrastructure, can facilitate collaborative entrepreneuralism (Teece 98) Successful business models set themselves apart in their communication design leading to a deconstruction of traditional value chains and the emergence of value Webs. (Lechner 01) The most critical factor for a venture business success is how to implement and commercialize lab-based technology/knowledge/ideas into actual products and/or services (Sung 01) Entrepreneurial firms use knowledge to reshape clusters of assets in distinctive and unique combinations to serve ever changing customer needs. (Teece 98) The key sources of wealth creation at the dawn of the new millennium will lie with new enterprise formation. (Teece 98)

Technology Transfer Center Info-Tech Nano-Tech Bio-Tech Technologies Change Fast Copyright SRI International 2002

Technology Transfer Center Moore’s Law One Decade Left Copyright SRI International 2002

Technology Transfer Center California Council on Science and Technology 2004

Technology Transfer Center Two Basic Methods Nanofabrication –Nanoscale Engineering –Precise Sculpting or Building of Enhanced and New Materials –Man Made Tools of processes, products or structures Self Assembly –Atoms and Molecules Growing Structures –Nanotubes

Technology Transfer Center New Materials * Before Nano we took the materials the earth provided (wood, stone, ore) and found creative applications Now we can manage the composition and combination of atoms, to form new stronger lighter metals, more flexible ceramics, more conductive plastics *The Next Big Thing is Really Small, Jack Uldrich and Deb Newberry (2003)

Technology Transfer Center Nanotechnology Timeline California Council on Science and Technology 2004

Technology Transfer Center Price per Megabyte 1988$ per Megabyte Today$ 0.01 per Megabyte IBM Millipede (2 years) $ per Megabyte Nantero/Zettacore (4 years) $ per Megabyte Hewlett Packard (6 years) $ per Megabyte Source: Jack Uldrich, “The Next Big Thing is Really Small”

Technology Transfer Center Computing Synergy Possibility for creating N(2 (N-1) -1) value Copyright SRI International 2002

Technology Transfer Center Copyright SRI International 2002 Exponential Economy An increasing attribute of our knowledge age

Technology Transfer Center High Performance Computing (HPC) Gigaflop – One Billion Floating Point Operations per Second Teraflop – One Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second Petaflop- One Thousand Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second

Technology Transfer Center HPC and Next Generation Biology Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions This computation would take three years on a PetaFLOP system or Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries.

Technology Transfer Center Simulating the activity of a single protein, taking into account each atom in the protein, Would take months using a PetaFLOPS- class computer HPC and Next Generation Biology

Technology Transfer Center Americas Most Wired Town In 2000, Blacksburg, VA Total population: 43,849 Total Households: 15,319 Source: Demographic Profile BEV, Andrea Kavanaugh

Technology Transfer Center Blacksburg’s Telecommunication Philosophy Public has funded parks, roads, libraries, safety and sanitation for over 50 years. Every service was once provided by the private sector Public took over to protect common good Public Investment in telecommunications is necessary for viability in the Information economy. Source: Andrew Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities”

Technology Transfer Center Blacksburg's Level Playing Field Regulated monopoly service providers invested infrastructure in a risk free environment with a guaranteed rate of return. In many communities this is a source of income Local and regional entrepreneurial start-ups must compete against established monopolies. Source: Andrew Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities”

Technology Transfer Center Blacksburg’s Edge Modestly Invest in four low risk telecommunications areas. Allows startups access to the infrastructure needed to remain viable in the Information Economy. This has: – Spurred further private sector investment –Created jobs –Expanded the tax base –Provided greater choice in services Source: Andrew Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities”

Technology Transfer Center Community Investments Source: Micheal Cohill, “Telco. For neighborhood and communities” Community investment in duct allows small and regional entrepreneurial telcom companies to compete with “old” monopoly services providers may be provided by either the community or the service provider. All present and future voice, video, and data services can be delivered to the homes on a single fiber pair Multimedia Service Access points, keep local video, voice, and Internet data traffic within the community which reduce costs for all in the community Co-location facilities provide a place for service equipment. Shared facilities reduce cost for all. Duct Dark Fiber Co-location facilities Date exchange Points

Technology Transfer Center Source: Broadband Communication Systems, Conrad High Burst Low Burst 64 K1.5M45M150M600M bps X.25 ISDN Frame Relay Switched T-Carriers Dedicated Private line and Ethernet SMDS 1.6G ATM/ BISDN Myrinet DSL Dial up High Speed Services

Technology Transfer Center Smart Building Project The 6 packs 4 Category 7 cable 1 Fiber Optic 1 Coax Cable Energy and Efficiency Image courtesy of Johnson Controls The connection point in each cubicle / office ATM to the desktop. A coaxial and fiber optic connection for next generation high-speed bandwidth requirements like streaming video and distributive computing. Additional Ethernet ports for multiple connection.

Technology Transfer Center Media Bandwidth DSL/ Cable IEEE 1394 / Firewire Gigabit Ethernet LASER / Fast Ethernet 10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet Microwave G2 Wireless G3 / Wireless LAN Async. Trans. Mode (ATM) G1 Wireless 10Gig Ethernet Voice Internet Access Gaming File sharing Digital Music NTSC Video VHS Video MPEG Video DV Video HDTV Video 10^11 10^10 10^9 10^8 10^7 10^6 10^5 10^4 Bandwidth Required Bits/sec (bps)

Technology Transfer Center Broadband over Powerlines (BPL) Source: The Christian Science Monitor, “Web access may be as lose as an electrical outlet” A third alternative to cable company or from the local telephone company for broadband. Millions of miles of powerlines already in place. Reach people left out by cable and telephone companies. BPL improves efficiency to power companies with interactivity. Utilities can quickly identify where outages have taken place, read meters remotely, and conduct preventive maintenance.

Technology Transfer Center High Performance Grid Computing

Technology Transfer Center Blacksburg Supercomputer Virginia Tech created cluster of 1,100 regular desktop Power Mac G5s. Performance of 10 teraflops and peak of 17 teraflops January 2004, rank its as the 3 rd fastest supercomputer in the world. Built with a budget of less than 5 million dollars Only needed 3,000 square feet with the use of small efficient rack-mounted cooling systems with outdoor chillers. Source: VirginiaTech Research Division

Technology Transfer Center Assessing Your Technology Industry Adoption of Technology Executive’s Approach to Technology CEO Not InvolvedCEO Involved Before Technology (Non-Customer Facing) After-Technology (Customer Facing) CIO Magazine June 2002

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