Economic Outlook Orlando, FL January 5 th, 2010

U.S. Forecast  U.S. has endured a Severe Recession  The “Great Recession” is now over  So why doesn’t it feel like it?  The credit freeze necessitated the quadruple policy bypass  Recovery and rehabilitation underway  Ugly “scar” on prominent display and slow to fade  Labor market will take a long time to recover

U.S. Forecast  What will be the shape of the recession and recovery?  Alphabet soup:  U-shaped, V-shaped, L-shaped or maybe W-shaped?  Sports equipment:  Hockey stick?

U.S. Economic Outlook 4 th Quarter 2009 Forecast

U.S. Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2009 Forecast 2009 Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate * Consumer Price Index % Chg, Annual Rate Consumer Sentiment Total Consumption % Chg, Annual Rate

A look at the Florida housing data: November 2009 Snapshot

Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA November 2009 November 2008 %Chg November 2009 November 2008 %Chg STATEWIDE 14,0268, $139,000$158, Orlando 2,2921,27779$137,100$167, Gainesville $167,000$160,0004 Punta Gorda $100,000$97,7002 Pensacola $150,500$152,100 Jacksonville 1, $149,200$154,300-3 Tallahassee $162,000$170,000-5 Florida Sales Report – November 2009 Single-Family, Existing Homes

Florida Sales Report – November 2009 Single-Family, Existing Homes Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA November 2009 November 2008 %Chg November 2009 November 2008 %Chg STATEWIDE 14,0268, $139,000$158, Ocala $87,800$122, Fort Lauderdale $182,100$229, Miami $184,800$224, Orlando 2,2921,27779$137,100$167, Melbourne-Titusville- Palm Bay $105,000$126,700-17

A look at the housing data: January 1994– November 2009

Florida Forecast  Residential real estate showing signs of improvement. Sales up, prices still falling.  Commercial real estate: wave of foreclosures poised to impact the sector  Economic recovery in Q  Labor market to remain in a funk  Short-run demographics hinder recovery  Long run population growth rates lower

Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona Gainesville 0.86 Jacksonville 1.04 Lakeland 1.62 Miami 0.67 Naples 1.04 Ocala 2.31 Orlando 1.43 Palm Bay 0.58 Pensacola 0.49 Tallahassee 0.86 Tampa Averages; Q Forecast

Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona 1.16 Gainesville 0.68 Jacksonville 1.62 Lakeland 1.07 Miami 1.34 Naples 1.25 Ocala 1.53 Orlando 2.11 Palm Bay 1.16 Pensacola 0.68 Tallahassee 0.59 Tampa Averages; Q Forecast

ORLANDO Sector % Average Annual Growth Professional & Business Services 4.8 Manufacturing 2.5 Education-Health Services 2.4 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.9 Leisure 1.9 Other Services 1.4 State & Local Government 1.3 Financial 0.8 Information 0.5 Construction & Mining 0.4 Federal Government -0.6

Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407) Thank you