What is the social impact of Marijuana use? Prashant Foneska Ana Kostioukova Dominic Lo Prashant Foneska Ana Kostioukova Dominic Lo

Arguments for Legalization F Largest cash crop in California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion. F A 10% pot tax would yield $1.4 billion in California alone. F Thousands of new jobs in agriculture, packaging, marketing and advertising. F Largest cash crop in California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion. F A 10% pot tax would yield $1.4 billion in California alone. F Thousands of new jobs in agriculture, packaging, marketing and advertising.

F $68 billion per year on corrections, 1/3 nonviolent drug crimes. F $150 billion on policing and courts, and 47.5% of all drug arrests are marijuana-related.  Resources spent on violent crime. Arguments for Legalization

Does a link between marijuana use and crime/unemployment exist? What is marijuana’s impact versus alcohol and other illicit drugs? F Factors we considered: F population density F Median income F Education F Median age F Population age F Children in low income families F Marijuana use F Alcohol use F Other Illicit drug use

Sources of Data Background: ml (Time Magazine, CNN News) ml (Office of Applied Studies: National Study on Drug Use and Health) 4C.DTL&type=politics&tsp=1 (San Francisco Chronicle) 4C.DTL&type=politics&tsp=1 Independent Variables: ( California State Association of Counties) (California Employment Development Department) (Children Now) Census) (Rand California Statistics) Background: ml (Time Magazine, CNN News) ml (Office of Applied Studies: National Study on Drug Use and Health) 4C.DTL&type=politics&tsp=1 (San Francisco Chronicle) 4C.DTL&type=politics&tsp=1 Independent Variables: ( California State Association of Counties) (California Employment Development Department) (Children Now) Census) (Rand California Statistics)

15 California Regions Included in the Analysis

Descriptive Statistics Populati on % Unemp. Pop./sq mi Med. Inc % HS Grad Med. Age% LowMj. UseAlc. UseIllicit Use Mean Std. Error Median Mode#N/A Std. Dev S. Variance E E- 05 Kurtosis Skewness Range Minimum Maximum Sum Count58

Predictions Type of VariablesExpected Sign for Crime Expected Sign for Unemployment Population per square mile (2005 estimate) + + Median Family Income – – % High School Graduates – – Median Age – + % population age Children ( age 0-17) in low income families + + Marijuana + + Alcohol + + Other Illicit Drugs + +

Crime Regression

CoefficientsStandard Errort Stat Intercept Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)* Median Family Income % of HS Graduates 2000 Census Median Age % Population Children 0-17 in Low Income Families Marijuana Use (Past Month) Alcohol Use (Past Month) Illicit Drug Use

Crime Findings F 1% increase in Marijuana use leads to 9 less felonies per 100,000 people F 1% increase in Alcohol use leads to 3-4 more felonies per 100,000 people F 1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to 120 more felonies per 100,000 people. F 1% increase in Marijuana use leads to 9 less felonies per 100,000 people F 1% increase in Alcohol use leads to 3-4 more felonies per 100,000 people F 1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to 120 more felonies per 100,000 people.

Unemployment Regression

CoefficientsStandard Errort Stat Intercept Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)* E E Median Family Income E E % of HS Graduates 2000 Census Median Age % Population Children 0-17 in Low Income Families Marijuana Use (Past Month) Alcohol Use (Past Month) Illicit Drug Use

Unemployment Findings F 1% increase in Marijuana use leads to.07% decrease in unemployment F 1% increase in Alcohol use leads to.09% increase in unemployment F 1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to.97% increase in unemployment F 1% increase in Marijuana use leads to.07% decrease in unemployment F 1% increase in Alcohol use leads to.09% increase in unemployment F 1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to.97% increase in unemployment

Conclusion F According to our model marijuana does not increase serious crime or unemployment rates. F Alcohol and other illicit drugs pose a much worse problem F Marijuana slightly decreases serious crime and unemployment rates F Possible limitations in our model F Accuracy of data F Other significant factors not included in our model F Most recent 2000 Census data F According to our model marijuana does not increase serious crime or unemployment rates. F Alcohol and other illicit drugs pose a much worse problem F Marijuana slightly decreases serious crime and unemployment rates F Possible limitations in our model F Accuracy of data F Other significant factors not included in our model F Most recent 2000 Census data