Supporting Future Air Quality Management: From AQAST to Copernicus? Terry Keating, PhD U.S. Environmental Protection Agency AQAST 10, January 6, 2016

2015 Wisconsin Energy Summit Tracey Holloway, Chair Session 2a: Satellite Data and the Globalization of Air Pollution Moderator: Steph Tai, Associate Professor, University of Wisconsin Law School Bryan Duncan, Research Physical Scientist, Atmospheric Chemistry & Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Pat Reddy, Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment Ted Steichen, Policy Advisor, American Petroleum Institute Terry Keating, Senior Scientist, Office of Air & Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Main Messages Satellite imagery has changed our understanding of air pollution as a global problem. Air pollution sources globally, and their influence domestically, are expected to grow unless new policies are implemented. Observations from satellites (and associated global models and information systems) are important tools to help: – Understand and account for global influences on U.S. air quality. – Motivate and enable emission reductions of sources of air pollution in other countries It is in the U.S. national interest to – promote public awareness, technical capacity, and access to information about air pollution and air quality management globally – encourage the integration of air quality objectives into sustainable development efforts around the world.

Main Messages Satellite imagery has changed our understanding of air pollution as a global problem. Air pollution sources globally, and their influence domestically, are expected to grow unless new policies are implemented. Observations from satellites (and associated global models and information systems) are important tools to help: – Understand and account for global influences on U.S. air quality. – Motivate and enable emission reductions of sources of air pollution in other countries It is in the U.S. national interest to – promote public awareness, technical capacity, and access to information about air pollution and air quality management globally – encourage the integration of air quality objectives into sustainable development efforts around the world.

Lim et al., Lancet (2012) 2010 Deaths: Household Air Pollution = 3.5 M, Ambient PM 2.5 = 3.2 M, Ambient O 3 = 150 K Global Burden of Disease, 2010

“Strengthening the role of the United Nations Environment Programme in promoting air quality,” United Nations Environment Assembly, June 2014 “Health and the Environment: Addressing the health impact of air pollution,” World Health Assembly, May 2015 Implementation Plans to be Reported to UNEA and WHA in May 2016

Main Messages Satellite imagery has changed our understanding of air pollution as a global problem. Air pollution sources globally, and their influence domestically, are expected to grow unless new policies are implemented. Observations from satellites (and associated global models and information systems) are important tools to help: – Understand and account for global influences on U.S. air quality. – Motivate and enable emission reductions of sources of air pollution in other countries It is in the U.S. national interest to – promote public awareness, technical capacity, and access to information about air pollution and air quality management globally – encourage the integration of air quality objectives into sustainable development efforts around the world.

‘Current Legislation’ (CLE) Emissions by UNEP world region [million tons] Source: GAINS model; ECLIPSE V5 scenario, Europe

Future air pollutant emissions – the role for AQ policies Source: GAINS model; ECLIPSE V5 scenario

Future air pollutant emissions – the role for climate policies Source: GAINS model; ECLIPSE V5 scenario

Where is it coming from? Change in Particulate Matter 2050 CLE MFR Rita Van Dingenen, Frank Dentener, EU JRC/IES

Where is it coming from? O 3 change by emission source region: 2050 CLE MFR (Change in annual mean surface ozone concentration) Rita Van Dingenen, Frank Dentener, EU JRC/IES

NAAQS Your State Upwind States Biogenic Stratospheric Wildfires International US Background Air Quality Management Requires Source Apportionment Domestically: Understand & Account

Clean Air Act Provisions 110 State Implementation Plans 110(a)(2)(d) Interstate Transport 182(h) Rural Transport Areas 179(B) International Transport 319 Exceptional Events NAAQS Your State Upwind States Biogenic Stratospheric Wildfires International US Background We need to be able to describe the sources that contribute to each exceedance day. Air Quality Management Requires Source Apportionment Domestically: Understand & Account

Traditional tools of air quality management agencies aren’t sufficient to characterize extra-regional influences. Ground Based MonitorsRegional AQ Models Emissions Inventories Sondes Domestically: Understand & Account

To understand extra-regional influences, we are incorporating more types of observations and tools from the research community. Ground Based MonitorsRegional AQ Models Emissions Inventories Satellites (Polar Orbiting & Geostationary) Ground Based Remote Sensing (e.g. Lidars) Aircraft Based Instruments Sondes Global AQ Models Data Integration, Model Evaluation, and Data Assimilation Domestically: Understand & Account

In some developing country settings, regional monitoring and modeling capabilities don’t yet exist. Emissions Inventories Satellites (Polar Orbiting & Geostationary) Global AQ Models Internationally: Motivate & Enable

Need for Better Integration NRC, 2010

Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service GMES Copernicus > 35 institutions led by ECMWF 10 years of development 15 sub-projects Management (MAN) Acquisition of observations (OBS) Emissions (EMI) Fire emissions (FIR) Greenhouse gases (GHG) Global reactive gases (GRG) Global aerosols (AER) Global Production (GDA) Validation activities (VAL) Regional Air Quality activities (EDA, ENS, EVA) Products in support of Policy users (POL) Solar radiation (RAD) User Interface Activities (INT) GEMS PROMOTE MACC MACC-II MACC-III CAMS

Monitoring of the global distributions of greenhouse gases, reactive gases and aerosols through assimilation of satellite and in situ observations, using near real time, delayed-mode, and reanalysis production systems (including NASA and EPA observations). Twice-daily forecasts of the global distributions of reactive gases and aerosols for several days ahead. An ensemble of three data assimilation systems for stratospheric ozone and a long- term reanalysis of total column ozone. Boundary values for regional modelling of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and local and urban modelling for air quality. Global fire analyses and estimates of emissions from fires for use in the global and European regional monitoring and forecasting systems; Surface fluxes of carbon dioxide, methane and aerosols produced using inverse methods; Global datasets for emissions from sources other than fires, to be updated based on new statistics or results from flux inversion. Estimates of direct and indirect climate forcing from aerosols Core data services supporting solar power generation and monitoring and prediction of UV radiation Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service Global Products

Analyses and forecasts for the European domain based on an ensemble approach using multiple (7) regional air quality models Annual assessments and source attribution for the main atmospheric pollutants over Europe Tools that may be applied to past cases or in NRT to assess actions to control pollution events Higher-resolution emission datasets for aerosols and reactive gases over Europe Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service European Products

Questions for Discussion Does the U.S. need a “CAMS-like” operational system to support air quality research and management? – What CAMS functions are not supported by programs in the US? – Can these functions be fulfilled by an Applied Science Team approach? How would a U.S. service-oriented system differ from CAMS? What can be leveraged from CAMS? What can be learned? What would be the roles of different federal and state agencies? What institutional changes or innovations are needed? How will geostationary satellites (e.g. TEMPO) change the needs and opportunities? In general, how do we better facilitate the transfer of knowledge and methods from NASA/NOAA/NSF research activities to NOAA/EPA/State operations and applications?