Casualty Actuarial Society Hurricane Landfall Probabilities from Proxy Data David Malmquist Risk Prediction Initiative Bermuda Biological Station for Research,

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Hurricane watch is issued 24 to 48 hours before a storm arrives to cities that could be hit. A hurricane warning is issued when it is forecasted that it.

Advertisements

Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Category 1: Minimal Central Pressure: Greater than 980 millibars (mb) Wind: miles per hour (mph) Storm Surge: 4-5.

Jeopardy Composition of Hurricanes Locating Storms Type of Storms Hurricane Categories Organizations Q $100 Q $200 Q $300 Q $400 Q $500 Q $100 Q $200.

CHAPTER 5: PREDICTING STORM SURGE LESSONS FROM HURRICANE IKE.

Hurricane Camille 1969 Lauren Scheibe Matt Smith.

Hurricanes. Tropical Weather Tropics: the belt between the Tropic of Cancer (23.5N) and the Tropic of Capricorn (23.5S) The weather is very different.

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Dr. Richard J. Murnane Risk Prediction Initiative Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Inc.

Catastrophe Assessment: Actuarial SOPs and Model Validation CAS Seminar on Catastrophe Issues New Orleans – October 22, 1998 Session 12 Panel: Douglas.

Past Climate Reconstruction and Climate Proxies. Note: This slide set is one of several that were presented at climate training workshops in Please.

Galveston. The Galveston hurricane of 1900 occurred before assigning official code names to tropical storms. Its for this reason that it is often referred.

Tropical storms Classification Development Trajectories Forecasting Hazards Future prospects.

Tropical Climate. Monsoon Asian monsoon - 1 Winter (northern hemisphere) Cold air over Asia creates high pressure. Dry air drawn southwards from Himalaya.

Hurricanes. And finally… JOURNAL COLLECTION How they develop What they’re like Where to find them Andrew or Isabel Important test and other information.

WHY IKE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WAS SO DEVASTATING THE FREEMAN HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE 2011 Hurricane Outlook Jill F. Hasling, President Certified.

Tony Knap President and Director Bermuda Biological Station for Research St. George’s, BERMUDA Insurance sector needs: a personal view.

Fall 2008 Version Professor Dan C. Jones FINA 4355.

Paul Poulos Actuarial Science. Insured pays premiums to insurance companies to protect themselves in the event of a loss. When an insured experiences.

The Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory University of Western Ontario London, Ontario, Canada, N6A 5B9 Mapping of Topographic Effects on Maximum Sustained.

Sea Level Rise, Hurricanes, Coastal Adaptation Peter Webster.

Natural Disasters What is an Earthquake? Ground movement caused by the sudden release of seismic energy due to tectonic forces. The focus of an earthquake.

Detecting Past Climates

Storm Surge Panel Discussion Orlando, Florida February 10, 2010 Ron Nash – Director, ISCM.

Climate Data and Paleoclimate Proxies Ruddiman p , Appendices 1 and 2 Paleoclimate at NOAA.

Hurricanes. What is a Hurricane? A hurricane is a tropical storm that forms over the ocean. A hurricane is a tropical storm that forms over the ocean.

Tuesday 12/9 Starter Hurricanes: What are they? What can you tell me about them? (ex: how are they named, how are they formed…)

Multi-year time scale variations El Nino and La Nina are important phenomena Occur every ~2 to 7 years when typical ocean-atmosphere circulation breaks.

1 A Note to the User of This File Visit to check updates for this chapter.

Implications of climate variability & change 1 WMO Expert Meeting on CAT Insurance & Weather Risk Management Markets December 7, 2007 Climate Variability.

Hurricane Ike 0800L 11 Sept 2008 Dan Petersen NOAA Meteorologist.

Designing Parametric Risk Contracts Using Catastrophe Risk Models Dennis E. Kuzak Sr.Vice President, EQECAT, Inc.

Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting LTJG Jeffrey Pereira, NOAA Storm Surge Unit National Hurricane Center NOAA Storm Surge Workshop May 2011 LTJG Jeffrey.

Importance to the Off-Shore Energy Industry James Done Chad Teer, Wikipedia NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR.

Hurricanes …no two are the same… Bill Read Director National Hurricane Center.

Conditions Required for Formation Warm, Humid Air (mT air mass) Warm, Humid Air (mT air mass) –form over tropical oceans Warm Water; 80 F Warm Water;

Tropical Storms. Same Storm - Different Name Tropical Cyclones Background:  Can be deadly! For example, in 1991 a large cyclone in Bangladesh killed.

© 2005 Accurate Environmental Forecasting Climate and Hurricane Risk Dr. Dail Rowe Accurate Environmental Forecasting

Lecture 14. Climate Data ( Chapter 2, p ) Tools for studying climate and climate change Data Climate models Natural recorders of climate or proxy.

Rossby Waves. Tropopause variation with latitude.

Naval Maritime Forecast Center - Norfolk, 9141 Third Ave, Norfolk VA Tropical Cyclone Quick Reference Guide 2010 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season:

Tornadoes, Hurricanes, and Floods.  Tornadoes are rotating columns of air that extend down from a storm cloud in the shape of a funnel.  Anything in.

Conditions Required for Formation Low pressure system Low pressure system Warm Water; 80 F Warm Water; 80 F Begin off the W. coast of Africa Begin off.

What is a Tropical Cyclone?

Enrica Bellone, Jessica Turner, Alessandro Bonazzi 2 nd IBTrACS Workshop.

Image from Humans are moving seaward (closer to the water) Ocean is moving landward Humans are moving seaward (closer to.

Hurricanes and Global Warming Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Tropical cyclones crossing within 400 km of 12.42°S latitude, °E longitude 1906/07 to 2006/07.

Dealing With the Differences in Hurricane Models Catastrophe Risk Management Seminar October 2002 Will Gardner FIAA.

Maritza De La Luz. Category One: Winds from 119 to 153 km (74 to 95 mi.) per hour. No damage to building structures. Some damage to construction signs.

1 Hurricane characteristics Sustained winds of 120 km or more Sustained winds of 120 km or more Sea level pressure < than 990 mb Sea level pressure < than.

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 6 Air-Sea Interaction.

Chapter 11 Hurricanes. What is a hurricane? Fig Winds ≥74 mph Winds ≥74 mph Typically 300 miles in diameter Typically 300 miles in diameter HurricanesHurricanes.

Topic: Hurricanes Key terms: Hurricanes Saffir-Simpson Scale Eye Storm surge.

Hurricanes. Hurricane a storm system with a large low-pressure center with many thunderstorms produces strong winds and heavy rain.

HURRICANES. Hurricane – a rotating tropical storm with winds of at least 74 mph that develops over the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific oceans Called cyclones.

By Sean Toms. Start of Katrina Hurricane Katrina developed first as a tropical depression in the southeastern Bahamas on August 23rd. Katrina strengthened.

Bellringer How might large bodies of water influence climate?

Isaac v.s. Katrina: Economic Loss and Damage In Mississippi

Severe Storms Cyclone = generic term for an organized system of winds rotating inward to an area of low pressure.

A Presentation for Air Liquide By Climate Impact Company May 8, 2018

The Hurricane: Nature’s Fury

Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting

Cyclonic Storm Vocabulary

Hurricane Camille 50th Anniversary

Climate Trends in Samoa

Presentation transcript:

Casualty Actuarial Society Hurricane Landfall Probabilities from Proxy Data David Malmquist Risk Prediction Initiative Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Inc.

Preview Risk Prediction Initiative Need for Proxies Proxy Methods and Results Future Directions

The Goal of the RPI To create links between the climate science and insurance communities so that the science of climate forecasting is available, understandable, and usable by insurers

RPI Information Flow Risk Prediction Initiative INSURERS Commercial Risk Modelers AcademiaGovernment

RPI Corporate Sponsors X.L. Mid Ocean Re General Re Renaissance Re ACE Limited Centre Solutions Employers Re AIG/IPC Re

RPI Activities Facilitate working groups Fund novel research Develop and distribute research products

Catastrophe Risk Model landfall probability maximum sustained winds peak wind gust radius of maximum winds forward speed and direction decay rate latitude longitude elevation topography construction type surrounding structures physical damage repair costs Damage terms of coverage Insured Loss Hazard

RPI Activities Facilitate working groups  Fund novel research  extend historical records via proxies –improve hurricane forecasts –climate variability –wind-field dynamics –develop public models Develop and distribute research products

≥ < > > 18 Minimal Moderate Extensive Extreme Catastrophic Saffir/Simpson Scale Pressure (inches) Wind (mph) Surge (ft) Damage

US Tropical Cyclone Damage ( ) Pielke & Landsea, 1997 $ = Millions of 1995 US dollars

Tropical Cyclone Observation NOAA, 1993 Satellites Land observations Ship logs Aircraft reconnaissance

Intense US Landfalls ( ) data from NOAA

Cat 5 US Landfalls ( ) data from NOAA

Extend Historical Records Via Proxies RPI Funded Research

Hurricane Proxies: Storm Surge Barrier Island Sand Mud OceanLake

from K.-B. Liu

sand layers Depth (cm) Lake Shelby, Alabama Lake Shelby, Alabama , 2.6, 2.2, 1.4, 0.8 ka , 2.6, 2.2, 1.4, 0.8 ka ~ 600 year return period ~ 600 year return period Category 4 or 5 Category 4 or 5 Lake Core Analysis data from K.-b. Liu

A Climate Diagnostic Proxy: Oxygen Isotopes Mean Sea Water H 2 16 O > 99.7% H 2 18 O ~ 0.2%

Texas Summer Precipitation Lawrence & Gedzelman, Rainfall Events Oxygen Isotope Values n = 208 Summer Rain Tropical Cyclones

- 9.35‰ ‰ Proxy Tape Recorder  18 O Time

Growth of Cave Deposits stalactite stalagmite column H 2 O + CO 2 + CaCO 3 Ca HCO 3 - dissolution precipitation

Stalagmite Cross-Section  18 O  Fidelity Sampling Interval

Tree Growth

Suppressed vs. Released Rings

What are the Potential Proxy Signals? Within-tree differences in ring width Between-tree differences in ring width –local (cohort) –regional (intersite) Isotopic Signals

Hurricane Camille (1969) Louisiana Mississippi Pass Christian Slidell

Single -Tree Analysis Hurricane Wind

Single -Tree Analysis Standardized Ratio Doyle & Gorham, 1996 Hurricane Camille

Cohort Analysis Hurricane Wind A AB B

Cohort Analysis Growth Ratio Doyle & Gorham, Hurricane Camille

Inter-Site Analysis LAMS LA MS

Inter-Site Analysis Growth Ratio Doyle & Gorham, Hurricane Camille

Hurricane Proxies: U.S. Geography Lake cores Tree-rings Caves

Facilitate working groups Fund novel research Develop and distribute research products