HFIP Regional Ensemble Call Audio = 1-800-857-6535 Passcode = 10606# Meeting ID = 917-288-618 14 May 2012.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Multi-physics Multi-IC Ensemble Plan for 2012 Hurricane Season Zhan Zhang and Vijay Tallapragada NCEP/EMC HFIP Regional Ensemble Conference Call March.

Advertisements

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Where do we stand after 3 years? NOAA Satellite Science Week March 21, 2013 Fred Toepfer—HFIP Project Manager.

Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/StAR Dan Brown and Ed Rappaport, NHC.

A Brief Guide to MDL's SREF Winter Guidance (SWinG) Version 1.0 January 2013.

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” NCEP CONDUIT UPDATE Brent A Gordon NCEP Central Operations January 31, 2006.

Operational Hurricane Model Diagnostics at EMC Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop NHC, Miami, FL 4 May 2009 – 6 May 2009 Vijay Tallapragada,

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Further Development of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Kate D. Musgrave 1 Mark DeMaria 2 Brian D. McNoldy 3 Yi Jin 4 Michael.

Creation of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Kate D. Musgrave 1, Brian D. McNoldy 1,3, and Mark DeMaria 2 1 CIRA/CSU, Fort.

Applications of Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Products to National Hurricane Center Forecasts and Warnings Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Ft. Collins, CO.

Ensemble Forecasting of Hurricane Intensity based on Biased and non-Gaussian Samples Zhan Zhang, Vijay Tallapragada, Robert Tuleya HFIP Regional Ensemble.

Brian J. Etherton Developmental Testbed Center Survey and summary of ensemble systems 21 November 2011.

HFIP Regional Ensemble Call Audio = Passcode = 71511# Meeting ID = July 2012.

Demonstration Testbed for the Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement.

HFIP Ensemble Subgroup Mark DeMaria Oct 3, 2011 Conference Call 1.

HFIP Ensemble Products Subgroup Sept 2, 2011 Conference Call 1.

HFIP Ensemble Subgroup Mark DeMaria Nov 21, 2011 Conference Call 1.

HFIP Diagnostics Workshop Summary and Recommendations.

Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop Opening Remarks Mark DeMaria May 4-6, 2009 National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida.

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center HPC Medium Range Grid Improvements Mike Schichtel, Chris Bailey, Keith Brill, and David Novak.

National Blend of Global Models An Overview

Four Winds Interactive Basic Content Manager Express Training

Atmospheric Modeling at RENCI Brian J. Etherton. Atmospheric Modeling at RENCI Focus of RENCI for C- STAR project is to provide modeling support/development.

4-6 May 2009 Co-hosted by Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria, Richard Pasch, Frank Marks 4-6 May 2009 Co-hosted by Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria, Richard Pasch, Frank.

Targeting strategies to improve hurricane track forecasts (JHT 03-05) PIs: Dr Sharanya J. Majumdar (University of Miami) Dr Sim D. Aberson (NOAA/AOML/HRD)

Tolman and MehraCOPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013, 1/14 NCEP Coordinated Ocean Modeling COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013 Hendrik L. Tolman and Avichal Mehra

Improvements to GFDN Planned for Operational Implementation in 2008 Morris Bender, Timothy Marchok (GFDL) Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Richard Yablonsky (URI)

Advanced Applications of the Monte Carlo Wind Probability Model: A Year 1 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria 1, Stan Kidder 2, Robert.

Advanced Applications of the Monte Carlo Wind Probability Model: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria 1, Robert DeMaria 2, Andrea.

Ensemble products (at 12 hour intervals from 00 hr to 144 hrs): Africa Desk GFS Ensemble Web Page Spaghetti plots 500mb height (5500 and 5670, 5700 and.

A. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State University NHC Points of Contact: M. DeMaria, D. Brown, M. Brennan, R. Berg, C. Ogden, C. Mattocks, and C. Landsea Joint.

Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Wind Predictions: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria and Ray Zehr NOAA/NESDIS/ORA,

Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/StAR Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU Dan Brown and Ed Rappaport, NHC HFIP Workshop, 4-8 May 2009.

GFS Forecast Review NCEP EMC GCWMB Bi-weekly Briefing Fanglin Yang, August 25, 2011.

An Improved Wind Probability Program: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO Stan Kidder,

ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report) Presenter Buck Sampson (NRL Monterey) Investigators.

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Overview NOAA Hurricane Conference Ed Rappaport for Fred Toepfer and Bob Gall December 1, 2009.

NHC Activities, Plans, and Needs HFIP Diagnostics Workshop August 10, 2012 NHC Team: David Zelinsky, James Franklin, Wallace Hogsett, Ed Rappaport, Richard.

Update on 2011 National Hurricane Center Proving Ground Mark DeMaria, NESDIS/STAR PG All Hands Conference Call July 22,

HFIP Regional Ensemble Call Audio = Passcode = Meeting ID: September 2012 – Noon Mountain Time (1800 UTC)

HS3 Website Template Dan Chirica Jim Doyle Amber Emory.

NHC/JHT Products in ATCF Buck Sampson (NRL, Monterey) and Ann Schrader (SAIC, Monterey) IHC 2007 Other Contributors: Chris Sisko, James Franklin, James.

Ligia Bernardet, S. Bao, C. Harrop, D. Stark, T. Brown, and L. Carson Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyclone Numerical Modeling – The Role of the DTC.

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Where do we stand after 3 years? Bob Gall – HFIP Development Manager Fred Toepfer—HFIP Project manager Frank.

A Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/StAR Daniel Brown, NHC 64.

Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Barbara G. Brown,

A JHT FUNDED PROJECT GFDL PERFORMANCE AND TRANSITION TO HWRF Morris Bender, Timothy Marchok (GFDL) Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas (URI)

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Bob Gall HFIP Development Manager Boulder, Colorado June 26, 2012.

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Where do we stand after 3 years? NOAA Satellite Conference April 11, 2013 Fred Toepfer—HFIP Project Manager.

Stream 1.5 Runs of SPICE Kate D. Musgrave 1, Mark DeMaria 2, Brian D. McNoldy 1,3, and Scott Longmore 1 1 CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO 2 NOAA/NESDIS/StAR,

Improvements to Statistical Forecast Models and the Satellite Proving Ground for 2013 Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR John Kaplan, Jason Dunion,

Predictability of High Impact Weather during the Cool Season over the Eastern U.S: CSTAR Operational Aspects Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS,

Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Year 2 Project Update Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO John A. Knaff,

Impact of New Global Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems on Consensus TC Track Forecasts James S. Goerss NRL Monterey March 3, 2010.

2015 Production Suite Review: Report from NHC 2015 Production Suite Review: Report from NHC Eric S. Blake, Richard J. Pasch, Andrew Penny NCEP Production.

Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/StAR.

Development and Implementation of NHC/JHT Products in ATCF Charles R. Sampson NRL (PI) Contributors: Ann Schrader, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, Chris Sisko,

1 Naomi Surgi and the HWRF Team NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN.

National Hurricane Center 2010 Forecast Verification James L. Franklin Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit National Hurricane Center 2010 NOAA Hurricane.

New Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Tools for the Western North Pacific Mark DeMaria and John Knaff NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU.

Impacts of Land Effects and Improvements in Modeling Landfall Using HWRF A Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Program Robert E. Tuleya, Yihua Wu, VijayTallapragada,

HFIP Regional Ensemble Call Audio = Passcode = 13677# Meeting ID = June 2012.

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Development Fred Toepfer, HFIP Manager Bob Gall, HFIP Development Manager.

Lab Results Interfaces S&I Framework Initiative Bi-Weekly Initiative Meeting September 12, 2011.

Kate Musgrave1, Christopher Slocum2, and Andrea Schumacher1

Mark DeMaria and John A. Knaff - NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO

A Guide to Tropical Cyclone Guidance

HFIP Ensemble Product Subgroup Update on Prototype Products

Twenty Questions Subject: Time.

Rebecca Cosgrove NCEP/NCO/Production Management Branch April 11, 2011

Presentation transcript:

HFIP Regional Ensemble Call Audio = Passcode = 10606# Meeting ID = May 2012

 Today’s Agenda  Genesis Product  Hybrid Wind Speed Probability Product  Regional HWRF Ensemble for Summer 2012 HFIP Regional Ensemble Call

HFIP Ensemble Product Subgroup Update on Prototype Products Mark DeMaria May 14, 2012 Conference Call 3

2 Prototype Ensemble Products Planned for Aug. 1, Genesis ensembles from global models  T. Marchok (lead) 2.Hybrid dynamical-statistical wind speed probabilities  A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria (co-leads)  Regional model products were planned by NRL, but postponed due to funding limitations 4

Prototype Genesis Product T. Marchok, GFDL 5 Tracker run on NCEP, ECMWF, FNMOC, CMC models Products displayed on EMC web page Link from HFIP web page

Update on Hybrid Wind Speed Probability Product  Operational MC wind speed probability model being finalized for 2012 season  Hybrid version planned for Aug. 1, 2012  Statistical track realizations replaced by ensemble tracks  ECMWF, GFS  Maybe FIM and experimental GFS  Products displayed on CIRA web page, link from HFIP web page  Digital data saved for post-season quantitative verification 6

 During Fall 2012 – a number of ensemble systems were presented:  Zhan Zhang  Others…  As summer 2012 approaches, do we want to add members for a 27k/9km/3km HWRF ensemble?  Thinking longer term: do we want to tie in products generation to an HWRF ensemble? HFIP Regional Ensemble

 Meeting summaries/presentations to be located here:  Next Call  Tentatively scheduled for Monday, June 4 th, at 11AM Pacific, Noon Mountain, 1PM Central, 2PM Eastern (Standard Time)  Speakers… to be determined! HFIP Regional Ensemble Call