IPCC Climate Change Report Moving Towards Consensus Based on real world data

IPCC Consensus process is Conservative by Nature

IPCC Consensus Evolution FAR: 1990: The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse gas effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more FAR: 1990: The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse gas effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more SAR: 1995: The balance of evidence suggestions a discernible human influence on global climate SAR: 1995: The balance of evidence suggestions a discernible human influence on global climate

Getting Stronger TAR: 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities TAR: 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities AT4: 2007: Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. AT4: 2007: Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

Climate Modeling Evolution

Better Grid Resolution

Basic Approach Coefficient of doubling CO 2 Coefficient of doubling CO 2

Leads to CO 2 Stabilization Scenarios

Basic Future Predictions A 2°C rise from today's temperatures produces 30% species extinction A 2°C rise from today's temperatures produces 30% species extinction A 3°C warming will lead to widespread coral deaths A 3°C warming will lead to widespread coral deaths Water availability in the moist tropics and in the high latitudes will increase, but will drop in the semi-arid low latitudes Water availability in the moist tropics and in the high latitudes will increase, but will drop in the semi-arid low latitudes A 1°C warming will decrease agricultural yields in the low-latitudes; 2°C increases yields at high latitudes A 1°C warming will decrease agricultural yields in the low-latitudes; 2°C increases yields at high latitudes

Preponderance of Evidence Want to find indicators of climate change Want to find indicators of climate change Requires a) a robust definition and measure of what constitutes climate and b) an instrumental precision sufficient to measure change Requires a) a robust definition and measure of what constitutes climate and b) an instrumental precision sufficient to measure change No one indicator (e.g. smoking gun) exists; aggregate of all data then forms the preponderance No one indicator (e.g. smoking gun) exists; aggregate of all data then forms the preponderance

Many Hockey Sticks This is most people’s view of “Global Warming” This is most people’s view of “Global Warming” It is perhaps the worse indicator to use: It is perhaps the worse indicator to use: Average global temperature has no physical meaning Average global temperature has no physical meaning How do you measure it? How do you measure it? Reliability of Measurements in question Reliability of Measurements in question Effects of urbanization difficult to factor in Effects of urbanization difficult to factor in What do you use as your baseline? What do you use as your baseline?

Weather is a Seasonal Event Yet Hockey stick only plots annual index. Yet Hockey stick only plots annual index. Bothun/Ostrander Monthly Treatment: Bothun/Ostrander Monthly Treatment:

La Nina/El Nino

Reinforced with 2D Representation

Winter Signal is Strongest

Amplification of Polar Warming Note the significant slop change at 2005: Methane Feedback signature?

Methane Potential role of methane is larger than CO2 Potential role of methane is larger than CO2 GWP = 21 GWP = 21 Scales with population growth Scales with population growth Released from permafrost Released from permafrost Released from hydrate deposits Released from hydrate deposits Emissions now rising again due to global wetlands returning from prolonged drought Emissions now rising again due to global wetlands returning from prolonged drought

Ocean sink capacity no longer scales with increasing emissions

Record Events depend on wave form evolution

Global Aerosols – leads to dimming Mostly Industrial; African Source is pyrogenic and biogenic in nature (drought related)

Convolution of positive and negative forcings are what we observe. GHG produces the net positive here

And all is superimposed on El Nino Cycle

Other indicators Sea Ice Glacial retreats and glacial mass balance Permafrost Droughts Water vapor feedback Cloud cover Ocean wave heights Sea surface temperature anamolies

Glacial Retreat and Mass Balance

Wholesale Change in Mass Balance

Arctic Ice Loss Rapidly Escalating

Waveform of Concern An Ecosystem Literally Melts Away

Global Sea Level Rise: Greenland Melting at an unexpectedly higher rate

But 2009 did not continue this catastrophic trend And 2009 point is consistent with long term trend

Total Ice Sheet Melting

Droughts

Water vapor increases?

Cloud Cover Extremely difficult to really measure with any accuracy Extant data are inconclusive and noisy

Wave height data shows something!

Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response Its important to realize that virtually all of the extra (heat) flux goes into the oceans

Big reservoir of heat 0.1 degree C increase transferred (instantly) to the atmosphere produces 100 degree C increase. Ocean circulation and redistribution of excess heat is (fortunately) a slow process But that is where the “pipeline” warming is even if CO 2 was stablized today!

Sea Level Rising Sea Level measured at San Francisco

Known SST oscillations increasing in amplitude North Atlantic Oscillation (notice the post 1995 slope):

Complete Feedback Models too Difficult to reliably construct

Source of Uncertainties  Roles of clouds and aerosols in radiative transfer models? (e.g. scattering!)  Role of tropical convection and the water vapor feedback loop?  How well do observations constrain the input climate parameters?  How to weight the inputs for best fit statistical model?  Contributions of other greenhouse gases specifically methane from permafrost release

Uncertain Futures Manageable BAD Humanity Blew It

Global Warming Potential TH = Time Horizon (20 or 100 years) A x = increased forcing from X (Watts m^2 kg) x(t) = decay following some hypothetical instantaneous release of X Denominator is relevant quantities for CO 2 Nominal value for Methane is 21

Do Tipping Points Exist in Climate? Does the system have critical phenomena? Or do the various and somewhat unknown feedback mechanisms serve to counter this?

The Next Level of Physics in Climate Science More strongly incorporates the role of various feedbacks particularly water vapor Identifying critical points (or lack thereof) is essential in future models Improved modeling of aerosols and their scattering properties Improved modeling of tropical convection to better understand ocean/atmosphere heat exchange