Shoreline Change Analysis; Sea Level Exceedence Projections Tiffany Anderson Sea Grant Extension Agent on Kauai.

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Presentation transcript:

Shoreline Change Analysis; Sea Level Exceedence Projections Tiffany Anderson Sea Grant Extension Agent on Kauai

Overview Historical shoreline data Storms in shoreline change analysis Advection and diffusion in shoreline change analysis Tide gauge data - project exceedence levels

UH Coastal Geology Group Shoreline change studies (sandy shorelines) – Oahu, Maui, Kauai Extract shorelines from historical aerial photos Shoreline change modeling and analysis Results - Maps

Mapping Historical Shorelines portion of an aerial photo mosaic

Storms in Shoreline Change Analysis – single transect Frazer, Anderson, and Fletcher, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2009

Storms in Shoreline Change Analysis – alongshore Anderson, Frazer, and Fletcher, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2010

Storms in Shoreline Change Analysis – alongshore Anderson, Frazer, and Fletcher, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2010

Storms in Shoreline Change Analysis – alongshore Anderson, Frazer, and Fletcher, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2010

Advection and Diffusion in shoreline change analysis Goals: 1. Improve prediction 2. Extract sediment transport information

Kailua Shorelines

Mathematical Model

Procedure

Results – Parameters

Results – Shoreline Position Prediction

Results – Sediment Transport

Sea Level Exceedence Projections Information on inundation due to sea level rise by: 1. Scenario 2. Timescale

MHHW MHHW – mean of highest daily tide over tidal epoch

Projected Sea Level m (1 m even in best case) with Maui subsidence ( m) Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009 Best case scenario Worst case scenario Lands within 25 cm of MHHW

1 week per year 3 weeks per year 3 months per year

1 week per year 6 weeks per year 10 months per year

Thank you! cell: (808)

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