___________________________ Principles, Practices, Philosophies TOURISM TWELFTH EDITION Charles R. Goeldner J. R. Brent Ritchie © 2012 John Wiley and Sons,

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___________________________ Principles, Practices, Philosophies TOURISM TWELFTH EDITION Charles R. Goeldner J. R. Brent Ritchie © 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved CHAPTER © 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved Tourism's Future 20

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved LEARNING OBJECTIVES Examine forecasts concerning the growth of international tourism. Identify the major global forces which are shaping the tourism of tomorrow. Understand the impacts, both positive and negative, that these forces are likely to have on tourism markets and on the ability of destinations to respond to the demands of these markets.

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved THE WORLD OF TOURISM IN 2020 FORECASTS OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS ARRIVALS (MILLIONS) WORLDWIDE AND BY REGION

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved UNWTO TOURISM TO THE YEAR 2020

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved UNWTO TOURISM TO THE YEAR 2020

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved FORCES IMPACTING THE FUTURE OF TOURISM Economic Political Continued growth of “Super-Europe” A decline in the role of the nation: the rise of the city state Environmental issues Technology Service robots Hotels of the future Transformation of the airlines industry Space tourism Terrorism and crisis management

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved FORCES IMPACTING THE FUTURE OF TOURISM Emergence of the knowledge-based society Moving from a service to an experience economy Demographic shifts The long-predicted “Chinese Elephant” is becoming a tourism reality Diversity within a homogeneous world Quest for stability and security (continued next slide)

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved Tourism-driven migration The digital nomad When all tourists speak the local language The dichotomy of comfort versus authenticity The emergence of extreme/adventure/disaster or dark tourism FORCES IMPACTING THE FUTURE OF TOURISM (CONTINUED)