Deploying Carbon Reduction Technologies In Time Daniel A. Lashof February 2007

February 2007 Warming won’t wait PHOTO NASA © NRDC 2005

February 2007 Prompt start allows smooth transition Source: Doniger, Herzog, & Lashof, Science, 3 November 2006

February 2007 U.S. reduction portfolio Source: NRDC, in Socolow & Pacala, 2006

February 2007 Source: California Energy Commission, 2005 United States California Energy efficiency works

February 2007 EERE wedges Source: ASES, 2007

February 2007 USCAP & Legislative Proposals

February 2007 Hitting the wall

February 2007 BaU new coal build

February 2007 Proposed new plants

February 2007 U.S. coal plant emissions committed by 2030 > ½ CO 2 budget Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004

February 2007 New coal plant emissions equal all historic coal CO 2 Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO % of remaining budget for 450 ppm

February 2007 Source: IEA,WEO 2004 BP, Xcel? FutureGen 2-3 more demos BaU means carbon lock in

February 2007 Carbon capture and disposal technology status IGCC is established technology –28 operating worldwide, 7 using coal –25 under development in U.S. CO 2 capture technology is available –Natural gas processing plants –Great Plains gasification plant –BP Carson project proposes IGCC with CCD Large volumes of CO 2 transported and injected now –20-30 million tons/year for EOR –Large EOR opportunity constrained by CO2 “shortage” Permanent disposal is feasible –Regulatory framework needed –Long-term monitoring required, but low cost

February 2007 Best Available Control Technology Coal Plant Emissions Comparison (lbs/MWh) Existing Average Median New PC Permits New IGCC w/ CCD NOx SOx Hg48 x x x PM CO

February 2007 Weyburn CO 2 -EOR and storage project 2000 to present ~2 Mt/year CO 2 injection CO 2 from the Dakota Gasification Plant in the U.S. Photo’s and map courtesy of PTRC and Encana

February 2007 From Peter Cook, CO2CRC, Australia SaskPower Existing and planned CO 2 storage sites

February 2007 Effectively permanent CO 2 disposal is feasible, according to IPCC From IPCC Special Report “ … the fraction retained in appropriately selected and managed geological reservoirs is likely to exceed 99% over 1,000 years.” “… the local health, safety and environment risks of geological storage would be comparable to risks of current activities such as natural gas storage, EOR, and deep underground disposal of acid gas.” From IPCC Special Report on CO 2 Capture and Storage, 2005

February 2007 Is Storage Capacity Located where it is Needed? From Bradshaw and Dance 2005 “It is likely that the technical potential for geological storage is sufficient to cover the high end of the economic potential range (2200 GtCO 2 ), but for specific regions, this may not be true.”

February 2007 Summary by Sally Benson, LBL CCS can significantly (>85%) reduce emissions from stationary sources of CO 2 Capture technology is available today Geological storage is taking place today in oil, gas and saline formations Storage capacity is large—with reasonably good co-location of emission sources and storage capacity Risks are understood and similar to many ongoing activities Public approval and successful resolution of institutional issues are crucial More large scale demonstration projects are needed now –Gain experience to improve reliability and drive down costs –Develop effective and practical regulations for safe and effective storage –Address institutional issues: public approval and long term liability

February 2007 Global stabilization energy mix Coal-ventCoal-capture Gas-vent Gas-capture Oil-vent Carbon-free Source: Hawkins, Lashof, Williams, 2006

February 2007 Getting started Cap and reduce emissions Efficiency standards, incentives and decoupling Renewable Portfolio Standard CO2 standard for new plants and low-carbon coal generation obligation Shareholder liability for CO 2 control costs from conventional coal Regulatory framework for CCD

February 2007 Take home Delay makes everything harder Conventional coal build incompatible with climate protection CCD feasible now and important, but can’t do it all Starting now with comprehensive package makes deep cuts feasible