Tom Breider, Loretta Mickley, Daniel Jacob, Cui Ge, Jun Wang, Melissa Payer, Betty Croft, David Ridley, Sangeeta Sharma, Kostas Eleftheriadis, Joe McConnell,

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Tom Breider, Loretta Mickley, Daniel Jacob, Cui Ge, Jun Wang, Melissa Payer, Betty Croft, David Ridley, Sangeeta Sharma, Kostas Eleftheriadis, Joe McConnell, Henrik Skov, Lee Husain Arctic Climate Response to Decadal Changes in Radiative Forcing from Aerosols Source : NASA

Arctic – “A region in transition” 60-90N Source: Shindell et al., SAT anomaly (°C) Arctic surface air temperatures are increasing (2x global average) What processes are driving the observed trends? Mass Conc, ug S m At high Arctic sites sulfate and BC concentrations decreased by 2-3% per year between 1980 and 2010 Spring sulfate mass Ny-Alesund

15 SO 2 BC Tg S yr -1 Tg C yr -1 NORTH AMERICA 15 SO 2 BC Tg S yr -1 Tg C yr -1 EUROPE 25 SO 2 BC Tg S yr -1 Tg C yr -1 EAST ASIA 20 SO 2 BC Tg S yr -1 Tg C yr -1 RUSSIA 15 SO 2 BC Emissions Source: MACCcity Inventory (Granier et al., 2011) 1980–2010: Dynamic Anthropogenic Emission Trends Emissions have decreased in N.America & Europe and increased in East Asia Image Source : NASA Earth Observatory

GEOS-Chem v driven by MERRA meteorology at 4x5 degrees for the period > 2000 ACCMIP (Lamarque et al., 2010) > 2010 RCPs / regional inventories Anthropogenic Emissions = MACCcity (Granier et al., 2011) > 1996 Duncan et al., > 2010 GFED3 (van der Werf et al., 2010) + GFAS corrections (Kaiser et al., 2012) Update precipitable water in low-level precipitating Arctic clouds in summer to 1x10-7 g m -3 Scale annual SO x ems to match Smith et al., 2011 and BC ems to match Cohan and Wang, 2014 Retain spatial and seasonal emissions Updates

Observed trends in Arctic surface sulfate and BC are reproduced to within 30% in all seasons Spring sulfate Ny-Alesund Steep drop after 1988 = collapse of the former Soviet Union Arctic AERONET AOD observations are underestimated by 20% 9% Spring; 28% Summer; 34% Fall Season R 2 Spring0.37 Summer0.29 Fall 0.0 Annual Mass Conc, ug S m -3

Latitude GEOS-Chem Arctic sulfate AOD in 2006 is towards the higher end of AEROCOM phase II simulations Source: Myhre et al., 2013 Sulfate 550nm AOD AEROCOM models Optical Depth, dimensionless This simulation

*Forcing does not include BC on snow Net all-sky surface aerosol RF, W m -2 DJFMAMSONJJA Early 1980s = Mid 2000s = Arctic surface aerosol radiative forcing decreased between the early 1980s and mid 2000s Early 1980s Mid 2000s Net Forcing

Net Arctic surface aerosol radiative forcing is largest in spring and summer and is mainly sulfate (75%) *Net forcing does not include BC on snow Net all-sky surface aerosol RF, W m -2 Sulfate OC BC DJF MAM SONJJA Net Arctic aerosol forcing of +0.1 W m -2 between early 1980s and mid 2000s

Summary Surface trends in spring Arctic sulfate and BC are captured to within 30%. We find a smaller total surface aerosol forcing compared to Quinn et al., 2008 in spring (-0.48 W m -2 vs W m -2 ) and summer (-0.26 W m -2 vs W m -2 ) Net Arctic surface aerosol RF between the early 1980s and mid 2000s is +0.1 W m -2, largest in summer and spring, and is mainly sulfate (75%) Net Arctic surface forcing driven by emissions decreases in Russia (+0.04 W m -2 ), FSU+EBLOC (+0.04 W m -2 ), Europe (+0.03 W m -2 ), North America (+0.01 W m -2 )

Net all-sky surface RF, W m -2 Russia Europe FSU+EBLOC North America Net surface forcing mainly from Russia, FSU and Europe

Net all-sky surface RF, W m -2 The sum of the regional net Arctic surface forcing is larger than the net surface forcing Net Forcing Russia Europe FSU+EBLOC North America

15 SO 2 BC Tg S yr -1 Tg C yr -1 NORTH AMERICA 15 SO 2 BC Tg S yr -1 Tg C yr -1 EUROPE 25 SO 2 BC Tg S yr -1 Tg C yr -1 EAST ASIA 20 SO 2 BC Tg S yr -1 Tg C yr -1 RUSSIA 15 SO 2 BC Emissions Source: MACCcity Inventory (Granier et al., 2011) 1980–2010: Dynamic Anthropogenic Emission Trends Image Source : NASA Earth Observatory

Net forcing from emissions increases in China and other regions reduces the net forcing from emissions decrease in spring by 36% Net all-sky surface RF, W m -2 Russia FSU+EBLOC Europe North America China Other

Summary Surface trends in spring Arctic sulfate and BC are captured to within 30%. We find a smaller total surface aerosol forcing compared to Quinn et al., 2008 in spring (-0.48 W m -2 vs W m -2 ) and summer (-0.26 W m -2 vs W m -2 ) Net Arctic surface aerosol RF between the early 1980s and mid 2000s is +0.1 W m -2, largest in summer and spring, and is mainly sulfate (75%) Net Arctic surface forcing driven by emissions decreases in Russia (+0.04 W m -2 ), FSU+EBLOC (+0.04 W m -2 ), Europe (+0.03 W m -2 ), North America (+0.01 W m -2 )