CHPR An integrated hurricane prediction and response system that allows: Strategic planning (weeks): energy, transportation, supply chains, financial, agriculture, water resources management, … Landfall preparation (days): emergency managers, local businesses, offshore activities, communities, individuals, … Tactical response (hours): e.g., emergency managers, power, communications, … Vision for CHPR CHPR

CHPR Objectives Establish a collaborative environment for conducting integrated research and testing new ideas Understand limits of predictability of tropical cyclone genesis, intensity and rapid intensity change on timescales of hours to weeks Innovative approaches to prediction of patterns of extreme winds, rain, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes at landfall Improve understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of hurricanes in relation to human behavior and public communication of risk Stimulate the transfer of new knowledge and technology to operational and decision making practice Diversity-rich education and outreach for the next-generation of hurricane forecasters, societal leaders, and coastal residents CHPR Establish a collaborative environment for conducting integrated research and testing new ideas Understand limits of predictability of tropical cyclone genesis, intensity and rapid intensity change on timescales of hours to weeks Innovative approaches to prediction of patterns of extreme winds, rain, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes at landfall Improve understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of hurricanes in relation to human behavior and public communication of risk Stimulate the transfer of new knowledge and technology to operational and decision making practice Diversity-rich education and outreach for the next-generation of hurricane forecasters, societal leaders, and coastal residents

CHPR A New Paradigm for Hurricane Prediction Global model predictions of genesis and track weeks in advance Ensemble high-res. coupled atmos-wave- ocean model predictions of rapid intensity change Forecast of extreme winds, rain, storm surge and floods Statistical rendering to reduce model systematic error Forecasts of landfall impacts using sectoral impact models Understanding predictability and improving prediction New data assimilation tech

August 14, 2007 Hurricane Dean 8/22 landfall MX Cat 5 TS Erin 8/16 landfall TX Optimized probabilistic forecasts hrs-weeks for decision making Days

Observed Hurricane Ike High-resolution (1.3km) model forecast of Hurricane Ike

UMCM Operational Hurricane GFS UM Mini-ensemble forecast of Hurricane Ike

Man-Yi Toraji Predictability Example: Super Typhoon Man-Yi Japan landfall 7/14/07 July 1, 2007 Jul 12 ECMWF VarEPS w/ tracking scheme Genesis of 2 distinct TCs identified +6 days Peak intensity Cat 4 Identified +12 days Japan landfall Identified +9 days July 5, 2007

April 21,2007 April 23,2007 April 28,2007 Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis: April-May 2008 Model ID: 04/21 Obs ID: 04/28 Model landfall Myanmar: 04/21 IMD landfall Mynamar: 04/29 (Model prediction of genesis and landfall 1 week ahead of IMD) Webster, P. J., 2007: “Myanmar’s deadly daffodil” Nature Geosciences, August 2007

Relative Vorticity (Easterly Waves) Combined genesis risk Ensemble track forecasts Genesis Forecast: Hurricane Dean Identify easterly waves in global forecast ensemble (pdf) Ensemble combined genesis risk including shear, SST, stretching deformation, humidity, vorticity, etc Combine to determine tracks of storms most likely to develop + +

Data Assimilation Strategies CHPR Strong data assimilation team among partners Atmosphere –NCAR WRF variational methods (3DVar, 4DVar) –OU, NCAR, UW, UM Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) –New Hybrid VAR/EnKF approach Ocean –UM/NRL variational and ensemble assimilation of ocean data Coupled Model –New DA in fully coupled models –Optimal Targeting of a/c: radar, drops., & ocn. soundings –Land-based radars –Satellite Use the above tools for sensitivity and predictability studies & to design future targeting strategies