The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 February 2012 For more information,

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 February 2012 For more information, visit:

Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Climatology

During the last 7 days, above-average rainfall was observed over Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and portions of western Brazil, southeastern Colombia, southeastern Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Below-average rainfall was observed over much of Brazil (especially the central, northeastern, and southern portions), northwestern Argentina, and eastern Peru. For 6-12 Feb 2012, above-average rainfall is predicted over northern Peru, southeastern Ecuador, western and southern Colombia, and northern Paraguay. Below-average rainfall is predicted clearly over much of Brazil (especially over its central and eastern portions), Bolivia, southern Paraguay, and northeastern Argentina. For Feb 2012, above-average rainfall is predicted over central and northeastern Brazil, Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and northern Argentina. Below- average rainfall is predicted over Guyana, Suriname, southern Venezuela, northern Brazil, Colombia, western Peru, and southeastern Brazil. Highlights

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days During the last 7 days, above-average rainfall was observed over Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and portions of western Brazil, southeastern Colombia, southeastern Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Below-average rainfall was observed over much of Brazil (especially the central, northeastern, and southern portions), northwestern Argentina, and eastern Peru. TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days During the last 30 days, above-average rainfall was mainly observed over northwestern South America (south of 5N), northern Paraguay, and portions of central Brazil. Below- average rainfall was seen over most of Brazil, eastern Peru, eastern Bolivia, southern Paraguay, Uruguay, and northern Argentina. TotalAnomaly

BP Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau 90-day rainfall totals are below average over the southern Amazon basin. They are also slightly below average over the Brazilian Plateau, the core monsoon region. 90-day totals are significantly below average in southern Brazil.

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Below-average SSTs are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at:

Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days Unavailable this time

925-hPa Wind &Temperature Unavailable this time

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Total Forecasts from 6 February 2012 – Days 1-7 Anomaly Note: Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Total Forecasts from 6 February 2012 – Days 8-14 Anomaly Note: Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

For Days 1-7 (6-12 Feb 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted over northern Peru, southeastern Ecuador, western and southern Colombia, and northern Paraguay. Below-average rainfall is predicted clearly over much of Brazil (especially over its central and eastern portions), Bolivia, southern Paraguay, and northeastern Argentina. For Days 8-14 (13-19 Feb 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted over central and northeastern Brazil, Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and northern Argentina. Below-average rainfall is predicted over Guyana, Suriname, southern Venezuela, northern Brazil, Colombia, western Peru, and southeastern Brazil. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS

Forecast Verification Forecast from 23 Jan 2012 Valid 30 Jan – 5 Jan 2012 Forecast from 29 Jan 2012 Valid 29 Jan – 4 Feb 2012 Observed 30 Jan – 5 Feb 2012

Climatology Rainy Season Dates ONSETDEMISE

Precipitation Climatology

Precipitation Climatology Animation