“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Economics Short and Long Term Steve Norton Nashua Chamber of Commerce Concord, NH January 20, Board of Directors James Putnam, Chair David Alukonis John Herney Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Catherine A. Provencher Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh

NH’s Economy 2

Short Term Continuing Uncertainty 3

NH – Less of a decline, but a slower recovery

Economic Forecast? 5 Moderate Growth Anticipated

Economic Consequence of the Market Turmoil Negative consequences –Lower stock prices impacts consumer spending through wealth effect and businesses’ cost of capital. –Stronger value of the $ weakens the trade balance. –Emerging market economies struggle to adjust to lower commodity prices. Positive consequences –Lower oil prices is a net positive as stronger consumer spending more than offsets the hit to the energy industry. –Lower mortgage rates supports housing and refinancing activity. –Reduces over-valuation in asset markets and chances that a bubble will form. Allows Fed to raise rates more slowly. Source: Moody’s Analytics, September 1, 2015

Overall Risk Index Wealth Effect 40%, trade 40%, energy 20% Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics

Long Term Labor Force Challenges 8

Size of Labor Force Working-Age Population (Age 20-64) Assuming no migration the working- age population in New Hampshire will decline nearly 10% in the state. The northern rural counties will see larger declines. Carroll County sees the biggest declines. % Change US1.0% NH-9.7% Strafford-2.4% Hillsborough-5.5% Cheshire-8.9% Merrimack-10.2% Grafton-11.2% Rockingham-12.3% Sullivan-14.7% Belknap-16.3% Coos-20.0% Carroll-24.4% Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University

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New Hampshire’s Population Numbers Depend on Immigrants 11

New Hampshire Share of Foreign Born Less than US, Regional 12

13 New Hampshire Foreign Born Concentrated in Prime Working Age

Immigrants and Native Education Patterns 14

15 New Hampshire Foreign Born Highly Educated

Immigration Expands the Economy Immigrants increase economic efficiency by reducing labor shortages in low- and high-skilled markets because their educational backgrounds fill holes in the native-born labor market. Immigrants’ educational backgrounds typically complement, rather than displace, the skills of the native-born labor market. THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMMIGRATION, Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, February 2013

New Hampshire foreign born Highly-Educated Four out of ten of New Hampshire’s foreign-born residents have a bachelor’s degree or better, ranking New Hampshire among the top ten states in the country in the education level of foreign-born residents. Despite accounting for less than 6 percent of the state population, the foreign born account for nearly one in ten New Hampshire residents with a graduate or professional degree. 17

In 2013 New Hampshire foreign-born workers earned about $2 billion in wages working in New Hampshire industries, or about 6.4 percent of the $29 billion in wages earned in the state. Over one third of those earnings were in management, business, financial, computer and mathematical occupations. 18 New Hampshire Foreign Born Contribute to the Economy

An expansion of the high-skilled visa program would create an estimated 2,000 new jobs in New Hampshire by By 2045, this expansion would add around $717 million to Gross State Product and increase personal income by more than $706 million. Source: Frederick R. Treyz, Corey Stottlemyer, and Rod Motamedi, “Key Components of Immigration Reform: An Analysis of the Economic Effects of Creating a Pathway to Legal Status, Expanding High-Skilled Visas, and Reforming Lesser-Skilled Visas” (Amherst, MA: Regional Economic Models, Inc., 2013). 19 But they could contribute more…

National Research on Foreign Born Business Owners Despite accounting for 13% of the population, immigrants start one quarter of the new businesses in the US. Immigrant founders started 52% of all new Silicon Valley companies between 1995 and % of INC. 500 CEOs are foreign born. Source: INC. Magazine, “The Most Entrepreneurial Group in America Wasn’t Born in America”. 20

New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Want to learn more? Online: nhpolicy.org Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy Our blog: policyblognh.org (603) “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” 21 Board of Directors James Putnam, Chair David Alukonis John Herney Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Catherine A. Provencher Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh