A TPO Reboot? Tom Treiman Resource Science Division, Missouri Department of Conservation (573)

TPO Workshop: Raleigh, NC. Oct, 2015 Purposes: 1)to identify current and potential future information needs, 2)to understand the knowledge gaps between current TPO information provided and the needs identified, 3)discuss sample-based approaches and estimation for annual TPO information, 4)identify analytical options (spatial and tabular) to meet information needs, and 5)to discuss data collection issues and ways to promote high response rates.

My job, should I choose to accept it…

“Experts” Survey

A “Delphi” survey With a “Snowball” element

Who answered?

Q1: How often is TPO data currently used in your state in each of these ways? Answered: 39 Skipped: 1

Q2: How useful is TPO data in your state for each of these possible uses? Answered: 39 Skipped: 1

Q3: What potential future information needs do you envisage being filled by TPO data? To show the future trend of timber production. As timber supply becomes less available, then landowners will become more interested in managing their forested lands for timber products. latest info on small diameter success stories The information is critical to completing the State Forest Action Plan. More trends analyses, information about secondary wood pr ocessing, urban wood utilization, mill demand, new and novel products. Market related information and information for foreign companies wanting to buy and import wood. I'm not familiar enough with the program, and it may exist, but any GIS Relatable tables would be helpful. Most timber supply models for industry investment and recruiting efforts by economic development and/or commerce officials rely heavily on TPO data. Providing information on actual timber production and drain by county for various uses including siting new mills or other timber consuming businesses. organize the sawmill survey data into a similar format as the pulpwood data is constructed. Better use of TPO data would help the US EPA, and state agencies interested in climate changes mitigation and adaptation understand the full role of managed forests. Same as now

Q3: Future needs? Certification issues. Current questions unclear. Need a new survey that tracks utilization of various tree products from stump to Primary processor Information that will allow better accounting for carbon in wood products, from forest to final fate. data of firewood production, producers and consumption Harvest residues and mill residues biomass and other product opportunities. A secondary estimate of harvest removals estimates from FIA plot data. Particularly if the TPO data can be aggregated to similar FIA survey units. More timely information for western states If TPO could be produced more timely, it is possible that we would make more use of it. Timber Supply Modeling, Bioenergy sourcing

Q4: What gaps have you seen between the current TPO information provided and the needs you have? not enough mills want to report back. small sample size The biggest gap is timeliness. It usually takes a few years between data collection and publication. Shortening that timeframe would be beneficial. Secondary, urban wood, info about where wood comes from (i.e. public lands, private sales). Also, the current TPO is geared towards traditional mills. We seem to be seeing a LOT more portable operations, seasonal operations and 'hobbyists'. We have moved the data to an ArcGIS Online website and plan to make a searchable database on our website where potential wood buyers can search for sellers. I haven't used it enough to make a judgment Roundwood consumption for utility scale wood pellet production is significantly underestimated under current TPO system. Leakage due to log exports at most southeastern ports is also a big topic which needs more effort and focus. (1) Timber exported out of the U.S. directly by roundwood producers / loggers / timber buyers is not accounted for. (2) Some and especially smaller mills are reluctant or down right refuse to provide information for TPO surveys. web access to data. more timely. time lag in getting current information

Q4: Gaps? The most important thing that TPO information could do would be to correct the incorrect estimates in that get used. Specifically the estimates of sawmill efficiency of product utilization are often in the 70% range - see - while TPO correct numbers are in the 98%+ range. These incorrect numbers from GTR NE 343 are used in the FVS FFE carbon reports The TPO data at a national level would vastly improve US reporting and international prestige - not to mention meet the new IPCC 2013 Good Guidance standards. Acres burned and burn severity. It would be nice to start having trend data from FIA plot data. Wood going to ports as logs or chips is generally missed. Current TPO utilization studies were last done in the early 1990's Have not been using TPO information enough lately to comment. volume units are not reflective of local usage

Q4: Gaps? TPO information is reported in cubic feet, while we in Idaho use board feet. As such, cubic feet tables are not of use to us. Once the information is collected, I would like to see a shorter turnaround time for the report. time between reports More timely information for western states we collect production information from all wood processors. At times, the numbers we report do not seem to agree with numbers reported in the TPO. I have not looked at TPO in a while, so I don't know if that issue has been resolved. Difficulty in obtaining data from roundwood facilities. Not as willing to provide information. Becomes questionable/reliable data.

Q5: How often should the TPO be done? Answered: 38 Skipped: 2

Q6: How important is each category of TPO information? Answered: 38 Skipped: 2

Q7: Ranking of options that may be considered to make TPO a sample-based survey. Answered: 36 Skipped: 4

Q8: Who should do the TPO survey? Please rank these options? (These are not promises!) Answered: 36 Skipped: 4

Q9: How should TPO data be collected? Answered: 37 Skipped: 3

Q10: Who should (officially) analyze TPO data? Answered: 37 Skipped: 3

Q11: How confident are you in each of these groups ability to analyze TPO data? Answered: 37 Skipped: 3

Q12: Are online analytical tools needed? Answered: 36 Skipped: 4

Q13: Is there a need to analyze TPO information spatially? Answered: 36 Skipped: 4

Q14: How satisfied are you with the timeliness of current TPO data reporting? Answered: 38 Skipped: 2

Q15: How satisfied are you with the content of current TPO reporting? Answered: 38 Skipped: 2

Q16: Which aspects of the content TPO reporting are you particularly satisfied or dissatisfied with? Not familiar enough with TPO reporting to make an opinion The trend of timber production output. Too much emphasis on residues. Latest mail survey takes much too long (about an hour) and many of our operators just throw it in the trash. I feel that a lot of states in New England do a lot of their own reporting and I haven't been asked for my data to compare with the TPO Not satisfied with lack of wood pellet classification and export issue. If TPO is to be relevant re policy decisions, it needs to have realtime annual updates (as currently provided by the state). I know current reports are in fact already based on a partial sample, which is not clearly acknowledged in the methods Sawmill survey has not been kept current. sample size method not effective. pulpwood survey about 1 year behind now. the need to use a specific federal form that does not match our data input needs the full product flow diagrams that integrate all harvested products (sawlogs, pulplogs, bark, etc) Volume harvested by County, Volume harvested by ownership c lass.

Q16: Dissatisfied? Missing table 20 (Total roundwood output by product, species group, and source of material). Please include in later reports. We do not know where imported wood products in the U.S. once they come through a port such as Long Beach, Oakland or Eureka, CA Lack of current utilization studies for all forest products, severely lacking in biomass utilization USFS data reporting is several years behind schedule, which is an embarrassment Very satisfied overall with consumption reporting. Would prefer to choose the units of my preference however. Would like to see board foot reporting instead of cubic feet. I've heard timeliness of the reporting is behind the demand, resulting in less usage of the reports/data. timeliness of report after data is collected volume of pulpwood 1. The new four page format rolled out this year doesn't include the 'color commentary'-- why did mill receipts have the pattern they had? and 2. We need the TPO report within a year of data being submitted. Time gaps in census of western states Doing mill surveys on our own is burden to limited field staff I think reporting should be annual, and QA and analysis coordinated with the states. Reports take an awfully long time Need publications on timely basis.

Q17: How important or unimportant is each method of TPO reporting? Answered: 36 Skipped: 4

Q18: Other comments? The current form is cumbersome. Regional comparisons would be nice - i.e. Lake States vs. the east or south. Getting all mills to participate in the survey is a problem. I wonder if mills would be more willing to participate in exchange for some kind of a financial incentive, or a fee, paid to them by the federal government based on tonnage of roundwood received for processing, or number of employees employed...or some other quantifiable measure. We feel collecting data in person is important. It is also labor-intensive and currently states receive no funding. I don't understand this survey. Why would FIA do timber product output surveys? Most industry and organizations in Idaho have a good feel for timber usage. We have very little private individual owners here, so most of the data is focused on large owner groups. We need the ability to crank out a quick analysis immediately after completing the survey data collection, within 3 months. We'd like State agencies to be able to do that analysis. I recognize that TPO may not be the highest priority for the feds, but it's actually a pretty important function. [We] have over 324 roundwood facilities and it is very difficult to obtain industry information which is confidential. Most distrust how information may be used. They do not want to release their annual production and overrun determined. The current survey form ask for too much detailed information. Asking for specie/county is a concern, most industries do not know since a lot of roundwood is purchased as gatewood. Small Amish sawmills often will not participate and are a significant sector in KY forest economy. With no funding available in TPO data collection and with very limited personnel available to perform the survey is a huge concern for our state forestry agency. Surveys are hand delivered and personnel provide on-site assistance in completion. However, they generally end up having to leave the survey with the company to later pick up on an agreed date. Sometimes it takes a half of dozen visits to same company to collect the data. Some end up refusing to complete.

Human Dimensions Delphi Snowball Census Sample Survey

TPO = Human Dimensions Talking to people, not trees People may: – Not answer – Not know – Not bother to find out – Not tell the “truth”

A few subjective additions… Shorter quicker reports – Promised turnaround time (like the plots)? Standard online database – Standard form (with Regional or State options)? Spatial queries – Draw a polygon… Economic impacts – Data into IMPLAN?

TPO = Human Dimensions What is the sample frame? Are the survey items (easily) answerable? How to deal with: – Non-respondent bias – Cognitive load – Strategic bias

TPO Workshop: Raleigh, NC. Oct, 2015 Purposes: 1)to identify current and potential future information needs, Discussed: seem to be getting the “right” info, but there’s some modeling going on that seems scarily unawares of how iffy the info is

TPO Workshop: Raleigh, NC. Oct, 2015 What we actually did: 2)to understand the knowledge gaps between current TPO information provided and the needs identified, Discussed: the main issues seem to be timeliness (no kidding) and spatial scale (do we really need county level responses?)

TPO Workshop: Raleigh, NC. Oct, 2015 What we actually did: 3)discuss sample-based approaches and estimation for annual TPO information, Discussed: lots of hand-waving, lots of desire for national consistency, seemed to be heading for a 2-3 year rolling sample. Not a lot of talk about necessary resources. Not a lot of consideration to the sample frame.

TPO Workshop: Raleigh, NC. Oct, 2015 What we actually did: 4)identify analytical options (spatial and tabular) to meet information needs, Discussed: Not much…

TPO Workshop: Raleigh, NC. Oct, 2015 What we actually did: 5)to discuss data collection issues and ways to promote high response rates. Discussed: Not a lot of talk about necessary resources. Not a lot of consideration to the sample frame. Promises that we might talk to Brett Butler about the survey form.

Our response…??? Live with it as is? Let this committee figure it out? Write a nasty letter? Other…

Questions? Tom Treiman Resource Science Division, Missouri Department of Conservation (573)