ESS Topic 3 Lesson 4 Key Concepts: Computer simulations, population projection. Assessment Statements 3.1.4.

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Presentation transcript:

ESS Topic 3 Lesson 4 Key Concepts: Computer simulations, population projection. Assessment Statements 3.1.4

What is a population projection? RECAP: What factors affecting popn size would we need to take into account?

UN Population Projection

eractives/demographics/demog.html Choose 2 different countries from the drop- down list. For each country, RUN 3 fertility scenarios: 2.6, 2.1 and 1.7 children per woman Write down the projected impact upon population size growth, and explain why this would occur.

Value of projection models? Requires 2 data points; easy to analyse. Identify when / if carrying capacity will be met. Govts can plan for pressures on resources: housing space, transport, food, water, finance, medical care… Prepare for the environmental impact humans will have. Put into place popn policies in advance (POPULATION MOMENTUM)

Possible problems? Assumptions about levels of fertility and mortality and migration levels. Based upon current population estimates. Data in many nations is unreliable. Smaller / LIC nations given less focus. Assumptions made regarding age groups and fertility or mortality. Fluctuating BRs (govt policies) and DRs (new vaccines or diseases eg HIV).

How else could we predict population change?