CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland STATUS / PROGRESS REPORT FOR GPC-SEOUL Suhee Park Korea Meteorological.

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Presentation transcript:

CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland STATUS / PROGRESS REPORT FOR GPC-SEOUL Suhee Park Korea Meteorological Administration

Contents  History of GPC-Seoul  KMA Forecast system  Basic forecast outputs  Products  Verification  Future developments

History of GPC-Seoul  Discussed the function of GPCs and requirement to be joined (CBS OPAG, Geneva, Feb. 2003)  Discussed GPCs/RCCs/NMHSs’ Needs (CBS OPAG, Jeju, Oct. 2005)  Submitted the results of verification for pre-designated for GPC (2006)  GPC Seoul (KMA) was officially designated (CBS-Ext.06, Seoul, Nov. 2006)  Opened the GPC-Seoul officially (1 Jul. 2007)

KMA Forecast system: Tier-2 GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System) Major Physics Cloud ConvectionKuo (1974) Land Surface & PBL SiB; Meller–Yamada(1982) Radiation Lacis & Hansen (1974) for SW Roger & Walshaw (1966), Glodman & Kyle (1968) and Houghton (1977) for LW Large scale condensationKanamitsu et al.(1983) Dynamics Three-dimensional global spectral model with hydrostatic primitive equations Hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate Semi-implicit method ResolutionT106L21 Ensemble size20 members Sea Surface TemperaturePredicted SST anomaly Land Surface Initial ConditionObserved Climatology Model ClimatologySMIP2/HFP simulation (1979 to 2010) Forecast range1-month forecast, 3-month forecast, and 6-month forecast  To predict the global SST, a statistical global SST prediction system is being developed by combining Coupled Pattern Projection Model (CPPM), Lagged Linear Regression Method (LLRM), El Nino prediction model, and persistence method.

Basic forecast outputs Issue frequency:3 rd, 13 th, and 23 rd day of each month Temporal resolution:10 days and 1 month averages, accumulations over 1 month forecast and over 3 month forecast. Spatial resolution:2.5°×2.5° Spatial coverage:Global Lead time:About 3 weeks Output types:Graphical images and GRIB2 digital data. Figures and data for 3 month forecast of GPC-Seoul are available in WMO LC-LRFMME homepage( Verification as per WMO SVSLRF (a)location of verification information : LC-LRFSVS (b)the verification is completed on 31 years hindcasts (c)the ensemble size of forecast and hindcast is same 20 members.

Products Variable: 850hPa temperature anomaly Precipitation anomaly SST anomaly Spatial resolution:2.5°×2.5° Temporal Resolution:1 month Coverage: Global and East Asia Global and East Asia Global and East Asia Issue frequency:monthly Lead-time L0NNN L1YYY L2NNN L3NNN L4NNN L4+NNN Location of rendered images: for 1 month forecast, for 3 month forecast

Verification: MSSS Variable:2m temperaturePrecipitationSSTNiño region indices Seasons:All 12 Leads:3 week leads 2 month leads MSSSYYYY Variable:2m temperaturePrecipitationSST Seasons:4 seasons Leads:3 week leads MSSS maps:YYY MSSS 1 maps:YYY MSSS 2 maps:YYY MSSS 3 maps:YYY Location:SVS-LRF website  SVSLRF Level 2 scores  SVSLRF Level 1 scores

Future developments  Collaboration with UK Met Office(GPC-Exeter)  From 2014, the operational forecast model of GPC-Seoul will be replaced by the Joint Seasonal Forecasting System, based on the GloSea system.

Thank you very much!