INDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS The aim of this tutorial is to help you learn to recognize, analyze and evaluate inductive arguments.

Inductive arguments Inductive arguments claim that their conclusion probably follows from the premises. As a result, inductive arguments are either stronger or weaker, rather than true or false. Certain words and phrases are commonly used in inductive arguments; these include probably, most likely, chances are, it is reasonable to suppose, we can expect, and it seems probable that. However, not all inductive arguments contain indicator words. 22 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Three types of inductive arguments  There are three common types of inductive arguments:  Generalizations  Analogies  Causal arguments 33 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Generalizations  We use generalization when we draw a conclusion about a certain characteristic of a group or population based on a sample from that group.  Certain data collection processes employ inductive generalization. These include polls, surveys, and sampling techniques. Types of sampling techniques include representative samples, random samples, and self-selected samples. 44 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Problems with generalizations  Although data collected using inductive generalization techniques may be useful and credible, it is also susceptible to problems.  These problems include:  Bias in wording, such as slanted questions, push polls, and loaded questions. 55 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Evaluating polls or surveys  When evaluating poll or survey data, it is important to ask questions to determine the data’s worth and accuracy.  Who conducted the poll and what was its purpose?  How was the sample selected? Was it large enough?  Was the sample representative of the study group?  What method was used to carry out the poll?  What questions were asked? Were they unbiased?  What other polls have been taken on this issue? Is this poll consistent with their findings? 66 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Evaluating inductive arguments using generalization  When evaluating generalization-based arguments, the following five criteria are useful:  Check whether the premises are true.  Decide if the sample is large enough.  Decide if the sample is representative.  Decide if the sample is current and up-to-date.  Determine whether the premises support the conclusion. 77 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Analogies  An analogy is based on a comparison between two or more things or events. Metaphors, a type of descriptive analogy, are common in literature. Analogies can be used on their own or as premises in arguments. Arguments using analogies are common in personal relationships, as well as in many fields such as law, religion, politics, business, science, and the military.  The success of an argument using an analogy depends on the type and extent of relevant similarities and dissimilarities between the things being compared. 88 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Evaluating arguments based on analogy  Knowing how to evaluate arguments using analogy is a valuable critical thinking skill.  The following strategies are useful  Identify what is being compared.  List the similarities.  List the dissimilarities.  Compare the lists.  Examine possible counter-analogies.  Determine if the analogy supports the conclusion. 99 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Causal arguments  A cause is an event that brings about a change or effect. In causal arguments, something is claimed as the cause of something else. Understanding cause and effect relations is a crucial component of effective critical thinking. 10 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Correlations  When two events occur together at rates higher than probability, the relationship is called a correlation. If the incidence of one event increases when the second one increases, the relationship is called a positive correlation. A negative correlation occurs when the occurrence of one event increases as the other increases. 11 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Evaluating causal arguments  Knowing how to evaluate causal arguments makes it easier for you to employ them productively.  Use the following four criteria  Determine whether the evidence for a causal relationship is strong.  Make sure the argument is free of fallacies.  Decide whether the data is current and up-to-date.  Make sure the conclusion does not go beyond the premises. 12 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Conclusions Knowledge of inductive arguments, including generalizations, analogies, and causal arguments, is essential for us to effectively function in the world. As good critical thinkers, we must constantly identify and evaluate these types of arguments, both our own and those presented to us by others. 13 © 2010, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.